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College Football · Saturday 3 October

Ohio at Kent State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Sep 2026

Our number has Kent State by 7.6. At +3, take Kent State.

Ohio is a 3-point favourite at DraftKings, down from 5.5 at the open. Our number has Kent State winning by 7.6. The gap is 10.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

Kent State is 3-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, by an average of 7.4 points across 5 games. Ohio is 2-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 7.8 a game across 8 games. The difference is 15.2 points. Half of it is 7.6.

The method does not adjust for who the opponent was. That matters here, so the next section tests it.

Where the number comes from

Kent State’s five home games against FBS teams: a 31-28 loss to Buffalo, a 42-6 win over Massachusetts, a 24-21 win over Bowling Green and a 28-16 loss to Central Michigan, all in 2025, then a 26-13 win over Ball State last Saturday.

The 42-6 game carries most of that average. Take it out and the other four average 0.25 points.

Ohio’s eight road games against FBS teams include two losses by 28: 37-9 at Ohio State in 2025 and 49-21 at Nebraska on 5 September. The other six average a 1-point loss. They were 34-31 at Rutgers, 20-14 at Ball State, 17-13 at Western Michigan and 41-36 at South Alabama, all losses, plus wins at Eastern Michigan (28-21) and Buffalo (31-26).

Remove all three of those games, the Massachusetts blowout and both 28-point losses, and our number drops to Kent State by 0.6. Against Kent State +3, that is still a gap of 3.6. The call survives its own worst case, narrowly.

2026 so far

Kent State is 2-2 and 1-0 in the Mid-American Conference. It lost 57-0 at South Carolina and 59-3 at Ohio State, beat Wofford 36-15, a team outside the FBS, then beat Ball State 26-13. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 9.7 a game and allowed 43.0.

2026 point margin in every game, Kent State and Ohio2026: point margin in every game so farKent State2-2, -19.8 a game-57South Carolina+21Wofford-56Ohio State+13Ball StateOhio2-2, -0.8 a game-28Nebraska+2Jacksonville State-5South Alabama+28StonehillColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Ohio is 2-2. It lost 49-21 at Nebraska, beat Jacksonville State 29-27, lost 41-36 at South Alabama, and beat Stonehill 35-7, also a team outside the FBS. Against FBS teams it has scored 28.7 and allowed 39.0.

Last season

Ohio went 9-4 in 2025 and won by 5.8 a game. It was 6-0 at home and 2-4 on the road, and it closed with a 17-10 win over UNLV on 23 December. Kent State went 5-7 and lost by 12.3 a game.

2025 point margin in every game, Kent State and Ohio2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedKent State5-7, -12.3 a game+4-48-3-56-44+36-35+3-4+7-12+4Ohio9-4, +5.8 a game-3+7-28+17+15-6+27+7+4-4+28+5+7Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026.

The two teams did not meet in 2025.

The price

Kent State opened at +5.5 and is +3 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2.5-point move toward Kent State. Kent State +3 is priced at -108, Ohio -3 at -112.

Kent State opened +5.5 and is +3 nowKent State's line, from the open to nowpickopen +5.5now +3Negative numbers mean Kent State is giving points. The line has moved 2.5 points toward Kent State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The moneyline has Ohio at -155 and Kent State at +130, from -198 and +164 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Kent State to win 41.7% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Kent State at 23.2%.

Moneyline implies Ohio 58.3 percent, Kent State 41.7 percentChance to win the game, as pricedOhio 58.3%Kent State 41.7%From DraftKings's moneylines, Ohio -155 and Kent State +130, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Pick: Kent State +3

Kent State +3 at -108. The gap is 10.6 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 13 games, split 5 and 8. The five on Kent State’s side are the thinner half, and one of them is a 36-point win.

What changes it

The bet stands down to Kent State -4.5, where the gap is 3.1. At Kent State -5 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass. The line has already moved 2.5 points toward Kent State since the open.

Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total opened at 52.5 and is 50.5 now, over -112 and under -108.

Game totals for Kent State and Ohio against 50.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 50.52030405060708050.5Kent State8 of 14 over 50.5Ohio8 of 15 over 50.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Ohio’s games went over 50.5 in 8 of 15 and Kent State’s in 8 of 14. That is 16 of 29, or 55%. Ohio’s four games this season produced 70, 56, 77 and 42 points.

Lean over 50.5, no bet. Both samples point the same way, by a margin a single game could erase.

Schedules and results for both teams: Ohio Bobcats and Kent State Golden Flashes. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.

Ohio at Kent State, Saturday 3 October, 3:30 PM ET, Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium, Kent. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.