CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyOHIO-3.5U 50.5-175KENT+3.5O 50.5+145
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Ohio at Kent State Final Score: Ohio Win 13-10
Final: Ohio Bobcats 13, Kent State Golden Flashes 10, Saturday 3 October at Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium.
Our call pushed. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Kent State by 7.6. At +3, take Kent State.” Kent State +3 pushed: Kent State lost by 3.
What decided it
Ohio won the second quarter by 4. Ohio turned the ball over 2 times to Kent State’s 2, and gained 254 yards to 266.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Bobcats | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is OHIO -3.5, with a total of 50.5. Ohio did not cover as the favourite. The 23 points went under the total.
What comes next
Ohio plays next at the Akron Zips on Tuesday 3 November. Kent State plays next at the Sacramento State Hornets on Friday 30 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Ohio at Kent State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Kent State by 7.6. At +3, take Kent State.
Ohio is a 3-point favourite at DraftKings, down from 5.5 at the open. Our number has Kent State winning by 7.6. The gap is 10.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Kent State is 3-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, by an average of 7.4 points across 5 games. Ohio is 2-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 7.8 a game across 8 games. The difference is 15.2 points. Half of it is 7.6.
The method does not adjust for who the opponent was. That matters here, so the next section tests it.
Where the number comes from
Kent State’s five home games against FBS teams: a 31-28 loss to Buffalo, a 42-6 win over Massachusetts, a 24-21 win over Bowling Green and a 28-16 loss to Central Michigan, all in 2025, then a 26-13 win over Ball State last Saturday.
The 42-6 game carries most of that average. Take it out and the other four average 0.25 points.
Ohio’s eight road games against FBS teams include two losses by 28: 37-9 at Ohio State in 2025 and 49-21 at Nebraska on 5 September. The other six average a 1-point loss. They were 34-31 at Rutgers, 20-14 at Ball State, 17-13 at Western Michigan and 41-36 at South Alabama, all losses, plus wins at Eastern Michigan (28-21) and Buffalo (31-26).
Remove all three of those games, the Massachusetts blowout and both 28-point losses, and our number drops to Kent State by 0.6. Against Kent State +3, that is still a gap of 3.6. The call survives its own worst case, narrowly.
2026 so far
Kent State is 2-2 and 1-0 in the Mid-American Conference. It lost 57-0 at South Carolina and 59-3 at Ohio State, beat Wofford 36-15, a team outside the FBS, then beat Ball State 26-13. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 9.7 a game and allowed 43.0.
Ohio is 2-2. It lost 49-21 at Nebraska, beat Jacksonville State 29-27, lost 41-36 at South Alabama, and beat Stonehill 35-7, also a team outside the FBS. Against FBS teams it has scored 28.7 and allowed 39.0.
Last season
Ohio went 9-4 in 2025 and won by 5.8 a game. It was 6-0 at home and 2-4 on the road, and it closed with a 17-10 win over UNLV on 23 December. Kent State went 5-7 and lost by 12.3 a game.
The two teams did not meet in 2025.
The price
Kent State opened at +5.5 and is +3 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2.5-point move toward Kent State. Kent State +3 is priced at -108, Ohio -3 at -112.
The moneyline has Ohio at -155 and Kent State at +130, from -198 and +164 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Kent State to win 41.7% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Kent State at 23.2%.
Pick: Kent State +3
Kent State +3 at -108. The gap is 10.6 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 5 and 8. The five on Kent State’s side are the thinner half, and one of them is a 36-point win.
What changes it
The bet stands down to Kent State -4.5, where the gap is 3.1. At Kent State -5 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass. The line has already moved 2.5 points toward Kent State since the open.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 52.5 and is 50.5 now, over -112 and under -108.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Ohio’s games went over 50.5 in 8 of 15 and Kent State’s in 8 of 14. That is 16 of 29, or 55%. Ohio’s four games this season produced 70, 56, 77 and 42 points.
Lean over 50.5, no bet. Both samples point the same way, by a margin a single game could erase.
Schedules and results for both teams: Ohio Bobcats and Kent State Golden Flashes. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.
Ohio at Kent State, Saturday 3 October, 3:30 PM ET, Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium, Kent. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.