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Our number has Fresno State by 17.4. At -13.5, take Fresno State.
Fresno State is a 13.5-point favourite over Rice at DraftKings, and the line has not moved since it opened. Our number is Fresno State by 17.4. The gap is 3.9 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Fresno State is 4-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 10.7 points a game across 6 games. Rice is 2-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 24.0 a game across 6 games. The difference is 34.7 points. Half of it, 17.35, rounds to 17.4.
Rice on the road
Rice won its first two road games against FBS teams in 2025, 14-12 at Louisiana and 28-17 at Charlotte. Then it lost 21-13 at Navy, 61-13 at UTSA and 52-3 at South Florida. On 12 September this year it lost 52-0 at Notre Dame.
Three of the six road games were losses by 48 points or more. Those three are what make the -24.0.
Fresno State at home
Fresno State beat Georgia Southern 42-14, Nevada 20-17 and Wyoming 24-3 at home in 2025, and lost 23-0 to San Diego State and 28-17 to Utah State. On 12 September it beat Sacramento State 49-3.
That last game carries the pick. Sacramento State is counted as an FBS team in these figures, so the 46-point win is in the sample. Without it, Fresno State’s other five home games average a 3.6-point win (18 over 5). The number would then be Fresno State by 13.8, 0.3 from the line, and this would be a pass.
2026 so far
Fresno State is 2-1. It lost 39-0 at USC on 4 September, beat Sacramento State, and won 26-10 at San José State on 19 September. It has scored 25.0 a game and allowed 17.3.
Rice is 1-2. It beat Houston Christian 31-3, a team outside the FBS, lost at Notre Dame and lost 28-21 to Western Michigan at home. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 10.5 a game and allowed 40.0.
Last season
Fresno State went 9-4 in 2025, won by 7.0 a game and ended with an 18-3 win over Miami (OH) on 27 December. Rice went 5-8, was outscored by 13.8 a game and lost 41-10 to Texas State on 2 January 2026.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.
The price
Fresno State is -13.5, the same as at the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Fresno State -13.5 is priced at -115 and Rice +13.5 at -105.
The moneyline has Fresno State at -550 and Rice at +410, from -520 and +390 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Fresno State to win 81.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Fresno State higher, at 88.4%.
All three measures make Fresno State the winner. Ours has it winning by 3.9 more than the spread.
Pick: Fresno State -13.5
Fresno State -13.5 at -115. The gap is 3.9 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 12 games, split 6 and 6. One of Fresno State’s six is the 46-point win over Sacramento State, and without it there is no bet.
What changes it
A line move toward Fresno State. At Fresno State -14 the gap is 3.4 and the bet stands. At -14.5 it is 2.9, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 43.5 and is 44.5 now, over -105 and under -115. That is a 1-point rise.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Fresno State’s games went over 44.5 in 6 of 15, and Rice’s in 10 of 14. Fresno State’s three games this season produced 39, 52 and 36 points. Rice’s two against FBS teams produced 52 and 49.
Pass on the total at 44.5. The two samples point in opposite directions.
Rice at Fresno State, Saturday 26 September, 10:00 PM ET, Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
