Samford at UAB Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number has UAB by 16.7. No line is posted, and this is no bet at any price.

No line has been posted for this game at DraftKings as of 28 September 2026. Our number has UAB winning by 16.7. Samford’s half of that number rests on 2 games, and 2 games prove little.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

UAB is 4-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 8.1 points a game across 7 games. Samford is 0-2 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 41.5 a game across 2 games. The difference is 33.4 points. Half of it is 16.7.

A side is a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart, and only when each team brings at least 4 games. Samford brings 2.

Samford’s two games

Samford is not an FBS team, so its games against FBS opponents are few. There are two in the span, both road losses in 2025: 42-7 at Baylor and 48-0 at Texas A&M.

The method does not adjust for who the opponent was, and UAB lost by 8.1 a game at home over the same span. With 2 games, the Samford average of -41.5 is a pair of results, not a rate.

UAB at home

UAB’s seven home games against FBS teams split 4-3. The wins were 31-28 over Akron and 31-24 over Memphis in 2025, then 26-20 over UL Monroe on 12 September and 24-20 over Navy on 25 September.

The three losses were all in 2025 and all by 18 or more: 31-13 to Army, 53-24 to North Texas and 48-18 to South Florida. The four wins came by 7 points or fewer.

2026 so far

UAB is 2-2 and 1-0 in the American Conference. It lost 42-23 at Illinois, beat UL Monroe 26-20, lost 21-14 at Louisiana, then beat Navy 24-20. It has scored 21.8 a game and allowed 25.8, every game against an FBS team.

Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Samford is 1-3. It lost 22-10 to North Alabama at a neutral site, 22-18 to Southern Illinois and 45-19 at Tennessee Tech, then beat VMI 45-7 on 26 September. It has scored 23.0 a game and allowed 24.0. None of its four opponents is an FBS team.

Last season

UAB went 4-8 in 2025 and lost by 11.8 a game, 3-3 at home and 1-5 on the road. Samford went 1-11 and lost by 23.3 a game, 0-5 at home and 1-6 on the road.

Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026.

The two teams did not meet in 2025. ESPN’s FPI gives UAB a 91.3% chance to win.

Pick: no bet

No line is posted, and the call is a pass whatever the line turns out to be.

For the record, the gap would reach 3 points at UAB -13.5 or shorter (gap 3.2), or at Samford +20 or longer (gap 3.3). Even at those prices the method does not bet, because Samford’s side has 2 games against a minimum of 4.

What changes it

Nothing this week. Samford has no further game against an FBS team before kickoff, so its sample stays at 2.

When a line is posted, compare it with 16.7. The nine results behind that number, 7 for UAB and 2 for Samford, are all this page has, and the method needs 4 on each side before it bets.

The total

No total has been posted for this game as of 28 September 2026.

UAB’s four games this season produced 65, 46, 35 and 44 points, a median of 45. Samford’s produced 32, 40, 64 and 52, a median of 46. With no number to compare them against, there is no lean.

Schedules and results for both teams: Samford Bulldogs and UAB Blazers. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.

Samford at UAB, Saturday 3 October, 3:30 PM ET, Protective Stadium, Birmingham. Prices: none posted at DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.