CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyTEM+6.5U 48.5+205USF-6.5O 48.5-250
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Temple at South Florida Final Score: Temple Win 17-13
Final: Temple Owls 17, South Florida Bulls 13, Saturday 3 October at Raymond James Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Our number has South Florida by 13.8. At -6, take South Florida.” South Florida -6 lost: South Florida lost by 4.
What decided it
Temple won the second quarter by 10. Temple turned the ball over 1 time to South Florida’s 1, and gained 274 yards to 319.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temple Owls | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| South Florida Bulls | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is USF -5.5, with a total of 50.5. South Florida did not cover as the favourite. The 30 points went under the total.
What comes next
Temple plays next at the East Carolina Pirates on Saturday 31 October. South Florida plays next against the UAB Blazers on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Temple at South Florida Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has South Florida by 13.8. At -6, take South Florida.
South Florida opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Temple at DraftKings and is 6 now. Our number is South Florida by 13.8. The gap is 7.8 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
South Florida is 6-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 30.2 points a game across 6 games. Temple is 3-4 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 2.6 a game across 7 games. The difference is 27.6 points. Half of it is 13.8.
Six and seven games is a small base. Only one game in each comes from 2026: South Florida’s 19-9 win over Florida International, and Temple’s 49-48 loss at Toledo.
South Florida at home
Every home win in the sample came by 10 or more. The five in 2025 were 34-7 over Boise State, 54-26 over Charlotte, 48-13 over Florida Atlantic, 55-23 over UTSA and 52-3 over Rice. The 2026 game against Florida International was the closest of the six, 19-9.
Temple’s road average leans on two results. It won 42-10 at Massachusetts and 49-14 at Charlotte in 2025. Take those out and the other five road games average -9.8: a 38-37 win at Tulsa, then losses by 21 at Georgia Tech, 1 at Army, 27 at North Texas and 1 at Toledo. That is a sum of -49 over 5 games.
Even on that harder reading, our number would be South Florida by 20.0, half of 30.2 plus 9.8. The bet does not rest on the two blowouts.
2026 so far
South Florida is 4-0. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 20.3 points a game and allowed 13.0: 19-9 over Florida International, 28-24 at Army and 14-6 at Bowling Green on 26 September. The fourth win was 59-17 over Delaware State, a team outside the FBS.
Temple is 1-3, and 0-3 against FBS teams. It lost 27-9 to Penn State at home, 49-48 at Toledo, and 21-17 to Army at home on 25 September. Against those three it has allowed 32.3 points a game. Its win was 38-14 over Rhode Island.
This is an American Conference game. South Florida is 1-0 in the conference, Temple 0-1.
Last season
South Florida went 9-4 in 2025 and won by 17.1 a game. It was 6-0 at home. The season ended with a 24-10 loss to Old Dominion on 17 December, at a neutral site.
Temple went 5-7 and was outscored by 1.8 a game, going 3-3 on the road. The two teams did not meet in 2025 and have not met in 2026. Both schedules are on the Temple Owls and South Florida Bulls team pages.
The price
South Florida opened at -6.5 and is -6 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is half a point toward Temple. South Florida’s side is priced at -112 and Temple’s at -108.
The moneyline has South Florida at -238 and Temple at +195, from -225 and +185 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices South Florida to win 67.5% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has South Florida at 68.7%.
The market and FPI agree on who wins. We differ on by how much, and the difference is 7.8 points.
Pick: South Florida -6
South Florida -6 at -112. The gap is 7.8 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 6 and 7, and 11 of them are from 2025.
What changes it
A line move toward South Florida. At -10.5 the gap is 3.3 and the bet stands. At -11 it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass.
South Florida’s scoring is the thing to watch. It has scored 30.0 a game this season and 20.3 against FBS teams, against 40.5 a game across all of 2025. A home number built mostly on 2025 assumes the 2025 offense is still there. This page does not state who is available, so check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 52.5 and is 51.5 now, over -105 and under -115.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, South Florida’s games went over 51.5 in 10 of 15, and Temple’s in 8 of 14. This season points the other way for South Florida: its three FBS games produced 28, 52 and 20 points.
Pass on the total at 51.5. Two seasons say over, and South Florida’s 2026 says under.
Temple at South Florida, Saturday 3 October, 7:30 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.