CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyTTU-12.5U 50.5-520COLO+12.5O 50.5+390
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Texas Tech at Colorado Final Score: Texas Tech Win 29-7
Final: Texas Tech Red Raiders 29, Colorado Buffaloes 7, Saturday 3 October at Folsom Field.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Texas Tech by 12.2. At -13.5, no bet.”
What decided it
Texas Tech won the fourth quarter by 17. Texas Tech turned the ball over 0 times to Colorado’s 4, and gained 314 yards to 375.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 3 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 29 |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is TTU -13.5, with a total of 50.5. Texas Tech covered as the favourite. The 36 points went under the total.
What comes next
Texas Tech plays next against the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday 31 October. Colorado plays next against the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Texas Tech at Colorado Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Texas Tech by 12.2. At -13.5, no bet.
No. 12 Texas Tech opened as a 14.5-point favorite at Colorado at DraftKings and is 13.5 now. Our number is Texas Tech by 12.2. The gap is 1.3 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. The market and our number are close enough that neither side is worth a price.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Colorado is 3-4 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 3.1 points a game across 7 games. Texas Tech is 5-1 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 21.2 a game across 6 games. The difference is 24.3 points in Texas Tech’s favor. Half of it is 12.15, which rounds to 12.2.
All 7 of Colorado’s home games in the sample are from 2025. Its one 2026 home game was a 52-21 win over Weber State, a team outside the FBS, which the method leaves out.
Texas Tech on the road
Five road wins, most of them wide. Texas Tech won 34-10 at Utah, 35-11 at Houston, 43-20 at Kansas State and 49-0 at West Virginia in 2025, then 35-24 at Oregon State on 12 September. The one road loss was 26-22 at Arizona State.
Colorado’s home games split the other way. It beat Delaware 31-7, Wyoming 37-20 and Iowa State 24-17. It lost 27-20 to Georgia Tech, 24-21 to BYU, 52-17 to Arizona and 42-17 to Arizona State.
The two big home losses, by 35 and 25, are why Colorado’s average is below zero. Our number already carries them, and it still lands 1.3 points short of the spread.
2026 so far
Texas Tech is 4-0. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 37.3 a game and allowed 21.3: 35-24 at Oregon State, 28-26 over Houston at home on 18 September, and 49-14 over Sam Houston on 26 September. The opener was 33-10 over Abilene Christian, a team outside the FBS.
Colorado is 2-2, and 1-2 against FBS teams. It won 14-13 at Georgia Tech, then lost 41-7 at Northwestern and 23-13 at Baylor on 26 September. Against FBS teams it has scored 11.3 a game and allowed 25.7.
This is a Big 12 game. Texas Tech is 1-0 in the conference, Colorado 0-1.
Last season
Texas Tech went 12-2 in 2025 and won by 27.6 a game. It was 7-0 at home and 4-1 on the road. The season ended with a 23-0 loss to Oregon on 1 January 2026, at a neutral site.
Colorado went 3-9 and was outscored by 9.6 a game. It went 0-5 on the road and 3-4 at home. The two teams did not meet in 2025. Both schedules are on the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Colorado Buffaloes team pages.
The price
Texas Tech opened at -14.5 and is -13.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1-point move toward Colorado. Texas Tech’s side is priced at -112 and Colorado’s at -108.
The moneyline has Texas Tech at -535 and Colorado at +400, from -800 and +550 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Texas Tech to win 80.8% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Texas Tech at 86.9%.
The market, FPI and our number all have Texas Tech winning. The only question is the margin, and on that the market and our number are 1.3 points apart.
Pick: no bet
No bet at Texas Tech -13.5. The gap is 1.3 points against a 3-point threshold.
The sample is 13 games, split 7 and 6, above the 4-game minimum on both sides. On that sample, the price is about right.
What changes it
A line move. At Texas Tech -9, 4.5 points from here, the gap is 3.2 and Texas Tech becomes a bet; at -9.5 it is 2.7, still a pass. At Colorado +15.5, 2 points from here, the gap is 3.3 and Colorado becomes a bet; at +15 it is 2.8, still a pass.
The line has already moved a point toward Colorado since the open. It would take 4.5 more in that direction to make Texas Tech a bet, or a move back past the opening +14.5 to make Colorado one. This page does not state who is available, so check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 50.5 and is 50.5 now, over and under both at -110.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Colorado’s games went over 50.5 in 7 of 15, and Texas Tech’s in 8 of 16. That is close to half for both teams.
Pass on the total at 50.5. Neither sample leans far enough to act on.
Texas Tech at Colorado, Saturday 3 October, 7:30 PM ET, Folsom Field, Boulder. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.