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Cowboys vs Packers prediction: Take the under 53

By Grant WellerUpdated 17 Oct 2026

Take the under 53. The side is a pass: Green Bay’s edge is in last season’s numbers and not in this season’s.

DraftKings opened this game with Green Bay a 3-point favourite and a total of 51.5. Read through ESPN on 17 October 2026 at 06:13 UTC, the same book has Green Bay -1.5 at -105, Dallas +1.5 at -115, and a total of 53.5. Across the 11 US sportsbooks read at 06:13 UTC, the median is Green Bay -1 and 53.

The number the argument rests on

My method for the total, in one clause: each team’s expected points are the average of what it scored a game and what the other side allowed. Over 17 games in 2025, Dallas scored 27.7 a game and allowed 30.1. Green Bay scored 23.0 and allowed 21.2. That puts Dallas at 24.45 points and Green Bay at 26.55, a total of 51.0.

The market has 53. Against my number that is an edge of 2.0 points on the under. My threshold is two. Below two I pass, because a number built on season rates carries more error than that, and two is the smallest edge I bet.

Five weeks of 2026 are played, so a bet has to clear the threshold twice. This season alone gives a total of 49.0, four points under the market. Weight the two seasons by games played, 17 to five, and the total is 50.55. The edge on the weighted number is 2.45.

2025 game totals for Packers and Cowboys against a total of 532025: total points in every game, against this week's 5310203040506070809053Packersmedian 45Cowboysmedian 57Each dot is one 2025 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. The line: median of the books quoting the game.

Pick: under 53

Eight of the 11 books have 53. DraftKings has 53.5, with the under at -115. BetRivers and FanDuel have 52.5. At 53 the under runs from -102 at LowVig to -112 at William Hill, with four of the eight books at -110. At -110 the bet needs to win 52.4% of the time to break even.

The under is a bet at 53 and at 53.5. At 52.5 the 2025 edge is 1.5 and the weighted edge 1.95, and I pass.

Green Bay games run low. Last season 12 of the Packers’ 17 finished under 53. This season four of five have, on totals of 61, 37, 49, 31 and 38. Dallas games are the risk. Nine of the Cowboys’ 17 went over 53 last season, and three of five this season, on 48, 57, 65, 64 and 40.

The market has moved the other way. DraftKings opened at 51.5 and now has 53.5. Across the books, quotes of 49.5 to 50.5 were last seen on 11 October; the median now is 53. My number has not moved with it, and every half point the market adds makes the under a larger edge.

Total from 50.5 to 53The total: the last time each number was on offer495051525350.511 Oct 23:1049.511 Oct 23:105212 Oct 05:1052.517 Oct 06:105317 Oct 06:10Selected steps where more than five numbers were quoted.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-17 06:13 UTC. Each point is the newest time any book quoted that line (times UTC).

No bet on the side

The method for the side: half the gap between the two teams’ points per game differentials, plus 2.5 points for home field. Dallas was -40 over 17 games in 2025, -2.35 a game. Green Bay was +31, +1.82 a game. Half the gap is 2.09 in Green Bay’s favour. Add 2.5 for home field and Green Bay comes out a 4.59-point favourite.

Against Green Bay -1 that is an edge of 3.59. The weighted number, Green Bay by 3.89, gives 2.89. On the rule alone, Green Bay -1 is a bet.

2025 point margin in every game, Packers and Cowboys2025 regular season, point margin in every gamePackers9-7-1+14+9-30+9+4+10-3-3+7+17+7+7-8-6-17-13Cowboys7-9-1-4+3-170+15-3+22-20-10+17+3+3-14-8-17+7-17Blue bars are wins, grey bars are losses. Neutral-site games are included here.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN.

I pass anyway. This season Green Bay is 3-2 and has been outscored 112-104. Dallas is 2-3 and has outscored opponents 138-136. On those five games each, Green Bay is favoured by 1.5 at home. That is half a point from the market, and no edge.

ESPN’s injury list, read on 17 October at 06:14 UTC, has running back Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons out for Green Bay. Neither appears in any of Green Bay’s five box scores this season. The 2026 numbers are the ones built on the team without them, and they show no edge on the side. A side that clears only on last season’s results, while this season’s say otherwise, is a number I cannot defend.

The total does not have that problem. The 2026 number, built on games without both players, is the furthest under of the three.

The moneyline

The moneyline prices Green Bay to win 51.5% of the time, from a median of -118 against Dallas at -104 across 11 books. DraftKings opened Green Bay at -166 and has -118 now. No bet.

Moneyline implies Cowboys 48.5 percent, Packers 51.5 percentChance to win the game, as pricedCowboys 48.5%Packers 51.5%From the median moneylines of 11 books, Cowboys -104 and Packers -118, margin removed.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-17 06:13 UTC.

Home and road

Last season Green Bay went 5-3 at home, scoring 22.0 a game and allowing 17.9. Dallas went 3-6 on the road, scoring 25.8 and allowing 29.8.

Packers at home and Cowboys on the road in 20252025: Packers at home against Cowboys on the roadPoints scored per gamePackers at home 22.0Cowboys on the road 25.8Points allowed per gamePackers at home 17.9Cowboys on the road 29.8RecordPackers at home 5-3Cowboys on the road 3-6
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

This season Dallas is 1-1 on the road, losing 28-20 at the Giants and winning 34-30 at Houston. Its 34-31 loss to Baltimore was played in Rio de Janeiro, a neutral site. Green Bay is 1-1 at home, beaten 35-14 by Atlanta and winning 31-7 against Chicago. Two games are not a rate.

The two teams met once in 2025, a 40-40 tie in Dallas on 28 September 2025. That game finished on 80 points. One game proves nothing about this one.

What would change the call

The price first. The under is a bet at 53 and 53.5, and a pass at 52.5. If Jacobs or Parsons is listed as available, the side is the section to read again; the total already stands without them. Read both injury reports and the current price before you bet. The prices here were read early on Saturday, the day before the game.

Pick: under 53.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Sunday 18 October 2026, 8:20 PM ET, Lambeau Field. Prices: 11 US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 17 October 2026, 06:13 UTC; DraftKings opening and current prices via ESPN, read 17 October 2026, 06:13 UTC. Injuries: ESPN, read 17 October 2026, 06:14 UTC. Results: Nucleus, 2025 season and 2026 through Week 5, the 2026 finals checked against ESPN, with ESPN box scores for Green Bay’s five games. Every Week 6 game: NFL Week 6 odds and predictions.