NHL
NHL · Saturday 24 October
Ducks vs Flyers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Ducks or the Flyers. Our number is 1.4 points from the price, and a bet needs 5.
The Philadelphia Flyers are -122 and the Anaheim Ducks +102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 52.6% for Philadelphia and 47.4% for Anaheim. The market has the home team as a slight favourite, and so does our number.
How 51.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both rates.
The Flyers went 20-13-8 at home last season, a 48.8% home win rate. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road, a 53.7% road loss rate. Average the two and the Flyers are 51.2%, the Ducks 48.8%.
The price has the Flyers at 52.6%. That is 1.4 points more than our 51.2%, so the gap points toward Anaheim. A bet needs a gap of 5 points or more. This one is just over a quarter of that.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -122 and +102 they add to 104.5%. With it removed, the Flyers are 52.6% and the Ducks 47.4%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Flyers are 3-6-3, 2-2-2 at home, and won 3-1 at Buffalo on Wednesday 21 October. Dan Vladar and Joseph Woll have played six games each in goal. The Ducks are 4-6-0, 3-3-0 on the road, and lost 4-1 at New Jersey on Thursday 22 October. Lukas Dostal has played seven of their games and Ville Husso four. None of that moves our number.
Philadelphia at home, Anaheim on the road
The Flyers at home scored 2.71 a game and allowed 2.76, a deficit of 0.05. The Ducks on the road scored 3.12 and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.42. These are the two halves our number uses. Both are weak, and they roughly cancel.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way for both teams. Philadelphia on the road went 23-14-4, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.17. Anaheim at home went 24-13-4, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 3.49. Each team was better away from the venue it plays in on Saturday. That is not in our number.
The season around it
The Flyers went 43-27-12 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 7. They beat Pittsburgh 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost to Carolina in four straight. The Ducks went 43-33-6 with 92 points and were outscored by 15. They beat Edmonton 4-2 before losing 4-2 to Vegas.
Anaheim’s record outran its goal difference in close games. The Ducks went 24-6-6 in one-goal games and won 17 of the 23 that went past 60 minutes. Philadelphia went 17-5-12 in one-goal games and won 16 of 28 past regulation. In games settled by two or more, the Ducks won 19 and lost 27. The Flyers won 26 and lost 22.
The Flyers won both meetings in 2025-26. They won 5-2 in Philadelphia on Tuesday 6 January 2026, a game inside both halves of our number. They won 3-2 in overtime in Anaheim on Wednesday 18 March 2026, a game in neither half. Two games is not a sample, and we read nothing from the 2-0.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.4 points toward Anaheim against a threshold of 5. The price is right within the method’s reach.
The line read Flyers -122 and Ducks +102 at DraftKings via ESPN on 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. It opened at -125 and +105. Since the open the market gives the Ducks 0.6 points more, 47.4% now against 46.8% then.
What kills the bet
The prices would have to move a long way. The Ducks become a bet at +129 or longer whatever Philadelphia is priced at; against the Flyers at -122, at +134 or longer. They are +102.
The Flyers become a bet at +117 or longer whatever Anaheim is priced at; against the Ducks at +102, at +135 or longer. They are -122, so neither side is close.
ESPN’s injury list has five Flyers on injured reserve: Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen (upper body), Owen Tippett (upper body), Travis Konecny (lower body) and Nikita Grebenkin (back). For Anaheim, Pavel Mintyukov, Ian Moore and Ryan Poehling are on injured reserve with lower-body injuries, Judd Caulfield is on injured reserve for personal reasons, and Jeff Malott is day-to-day with an illness. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Flyers’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Ducks’ in 54 of 82. Philadelphia’s home games averaged 5.47 goals, Anaheim’s road games 6.66.
That is 53.7% and 65.9%, an average of 59.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%. Our number leans over by 5.5 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean on the over, not a bet.
On the puck line, Philadelphia is -1.5 at +200 and Anaheim +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% without the margin. Last season the Flyers won by two or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Ducks lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Flyers -1.5 lands 32.3% of the time against 31.9% priced. A 0.4-point gap is noise. Pass, and no bet on this game.
Ducks at Flyers, Saturday 24 October, 1:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.