NHL
NHL · Saturday 24 October
Hurricanes vs Blues Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet. Our number has St. Louis 3.4 points better than the price, short of the 5 a bet needs.
The St. Louis Blues are +130 and the Carolina Hurricanes -155 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 41.7% for St. Louis and 58.3% for Carolina. Our Hurricanes vs Blues prediction has the Blues at 45.1%. The market and our number agree on the favourite, and the gap between them is too small to stake.
How 45.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Blues went 20-14-7 at Enterprise Center, a 48.8% home win rate. The Hurricanes went 24-12-5 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Averaged, that makes St. Louis 45.1% and Carolina 54.9%. The gap is 3.4 points toward the Blues, against a threshold of 5.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At +130 and -155 they add to 104.3%. Taken out, the Blues are 41.7% and the Hurricanes 58.3%.
No goalie is on either injury list, so nothing here re-runs the method. Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside our number. St. Louis is 5-4-1, 3-0-1 at home, and beat Vegas 6-2 on Thursday 22 October. Joel Hofer has played seven of their games and Jordan Binnington three. Carolina is 8-2-2, 6-1-1 on the road, and lost 6-5 in a shootout in Edmonton the same night. Brandon Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov have played six games each.
St. Louis at home, Carolina on the road
At home last season the Blues scored 2.83 a game and allowed 3.07, a deficit of 0.24. On the road the Hurricanes scored 3.29 and allowed 2.78, a surplus of 0.51. Those are the two halves inside our number.
The halves the method leaves out favour Carolina more. St. Louis on the road went 17-19-5, a 41.5% win rate, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.22. Carolina at home went 29-10-2, 70.7%, scoring 3.93 and allowing 3.07. Neither half is in our number.
The season around it
Carolina went 53-22-7 with 113 points and outscored opponents by 56. In the playoffs the Hurricanes beat Ottawa 4-0, Philadelphia 4-0, Montreal 4-1 and Vegas 4-2. St. Louis went 37-33-12 with 86 points, was outscored by 27, and missed the playoffs.
The Hurricanes went 24-4-7 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 21 that went past regulation. The Blues went 18-9-12 in one-goal games and won 4 of their 16 past 60 minutes. Carolina won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games; St. Louis lost by two or more in 24 of 82.
St. Louis won both meetings in 2025-26. The 3-0 win in St. Louis on Tuesday 13 January is inside both halves of our number. The 3-1 win in Carolina on Thursday 12 March is in neither.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.4 points toward the Blues, against a threshold of 5. On this method, a 41.7% price for a team whose inputs say 45.1% is close enough to fair.
The line read Blues +130 and Hurricanes -155 on 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market’s chances have not moved.
What kills the bet
A longer St. Louis price makes the bet. At +150 or longer the Blues are a bet whatever Carolina is priced at. Against Carolina at -155, they become a bet at +146 or longer.
For the Hurricanes to become the bet, they would have to be +131 or longer against the Blues at +130, or +101 or longer whatever the St. Louis price. They are -155.
ESPN’s injury list has Ross Johnston, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube, Alexey Toropchenko and Tyler Tucker on injured reserve for St. Louis. Carolina lists Mark Jankowski as day-to-day with a lower-body injury, and Taylor Hall, Jordan Staal and Alexander Nikishin on injured reserve. None of them changes the call. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. The Blues’ games went over 6.5 in 33 of 82, a 40.2% rate. The Hurricanes’ went over in 44 of 82, 53.7%. Blues home games averaged 5.9 goals; Hurricanes road games averaged 6.07.
Averaged, our over is 47.0%. With the margin out, the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%, a gap of 0.2 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Carolina is -1.5 at +170 and St. Louis +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. The Hurricanes won by two or more in 29 of 82 games and the Blues lost by two or more in 24 of 82. Averaged, Hurricanes -1.5 lands 32.3% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 3.2 points toward Blues +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, and that gap is a lean on the same side, below the threshold anyway. No bet on this game.
Hurricanes at Blues, Saturday 24 October, 7:00 PM ET, Enterprise Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.