NHL
NHL · Monday 19 October
Avalanche vs Flyers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Flyers at +180. The price makes Colorado a 65.7% winner, we make it 61.0%, and a 4.7-point gap is short of the bar.
The Colorado Avalanche are -218 and the Philadelphia Flyers +180 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 65.7% for Colorado and 34.3% for Philadelphia. Our number gives the Flyers 39.0%. Both have the Avalanche as a clear road favourite and differ only on how clear.
How 61.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team had one.
The Flyers went 20-13-8 at Xfinity Mobile Arena: 20 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 after regulation, a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Avalanche went 29-7-5 on the road and lost 12 of 41, a 29.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 39.0% for Philadelphia and 61.0% for Colorado.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -218 and +180 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Avalanche are 65.7% and the Flyers 34.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Philadelphia home games and 41 Colorado road games. This season is not in the figures. The Flyers are 1-6-3, and their one win came on Saturday, 3-1 at home over Ottawa. The Avalanche are 5-2-1 and beat Pittsburgh 5-2 at home on Friday, so they come in on two days off.
Philadelphia at home, Colorado on the road
At home the Flyers scored 2.71 a game and allowed 2.76, a deficit of 0.05. The Avalanche on the road scored 3.54 and allowed 2.32, a surplus of 1.22.
The halves the method leaves out: Philadelphia on the road went 23-14-4, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.17. Colorado at home went 26-9-6, 63.4%, scoring 3.83 and allowing 2.63. Both teams won more often away from home than in it.
Over the full season Colorado was the better team by a distance. The Avalanche finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and outscored opponents by 99, then beat Los Angeles 4-0 and Minnesota 4-1 before Vegas swept them. The Flyers finished 43-27-12 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 7, beat Pittsburgh 4-2 in the first round and were swept by Carolina.
Philadelphia lived in close games: 17-5-12 in one-goal games, and 16 wins in the 28 that went past regulation. Colorado went 14-4-11 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 18 past 60 minutes. The Avalanche won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games; the Flyers lost by two or more in 22 of 82.
The two split their meetings in 2025-26. Colorado won 3-2 in Philadelphia on 7 December, and that game is in our number: one of the Flyers’ 41 home games and one of the Avalanche’s 41 road games. Philadelphia’s 7-3 win in Colorado on 23 January is in neither half.
Pick: No bet on the Flyers +180
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 4.7 points toward Philadelphia, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Avalanche -218 and Flyers +180 on 18 October 2026 at 21:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -205 and +170, so it has moved toward Colorado, and toward the bar.
What changes it
A little more movement the same way. Against the Avalanche at -218, Philadelphia would need +184 or longer to clear the bar. At +195 or longer the Flyers are a bet whatever Colorado is priced at.
For Colorado to become the bet, the price would have to make the Avalanche 56.0% or less with the margin out. They are 65.7% at -218.
No goalie is on either team’s injury list (ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:15 UTC), so the method stands as it is. Philadelphia lists Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen on injured reserve, and Tyson Foerster, Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett as day-to-day. Colorado lists Zachary L’Heureux and Nicolas Roy as out, and Logan O’Connor and Georgii Merkulov on injured reserve. The Flyers have split their goaltending, five games each for Dan Vladar and Joseph Woll; Mackenzie Blackwood has played six of Colorado’s eight, Scott Wedgewood two. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Flyers’ games went over 6.5 in 34 of 82, the Avalanche’s in 32 of 82. Philadelphia’s home games averaged 5.47 goals, Colorado’s road games 5.86.
That is 41.5% and 39.0%, an average of 40.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 45.7% and the under at 54.3%, so our number is 5.5 points toward the under. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this is a lean: under 6.5 at -130.
The puck line points toward Philadelphia too, but not far enough. Colorado is -1.5 at +124 and Philadelphia +1.5 at -148, which is 42.8% and 57.2% without the margin. Averaging the Avalanche’s 41 wins by two or more and the Flyers’ 22 losses by two or more, Colorado -1.5 lands 38.4% of the time against 42.8% priced, less than 5 points. Pass on the puck line. The call on the game stays no bet.
Avalanche at Flyers, Monday 19 October, 7:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games and goalie appearances from ESPN’s team schedules and game page, read 18 October 2026. Injury list: ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:15 UTC.