NHL
NHL · Tuesday 20 October
Red Wings vs Kraken Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Red Wings at -102. Our number leans to Detroit, by 2.9 points, and that is not enough to bet.
The Seattle Kraken are -118 and the Detroit Red Wings -102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.7% for Seattle and 48.3% for Detroit. Our number gives the Kraken 48.8% and the Red Wings 51.2%. The two sit close to a coin flip, on opposite sides of it.
How 48.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team had one.
The Kraken went 19-17-5 at Climate Pledge Arena: 19 wins, 17 regulation losses and 5 after regulation, a 46.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Red Wings went 20-15-6 on the road and lost 21 of 41, a 51.2% road loss rate. The midpoint is 48.8% for Seattle and 51.2% for Detroit.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -118 and -102 they come to 104.6%. Taken out, the Kraken are 51.7% and the Red Wings 48.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Seattle home games and 41 Detroit road games. This season is not in the figures. The Kraken are 5-3-1 and come home from a five-game road trip that ended with an 8-3 loss in Florida on Saturday. The Red Wings are 3-3-2 and beat San Jose 4-3 in a shootout at home on Saturday. Both come in on two days off.
Seattle at home, Detroit on the road
Over the full season the Kraken at home scored 2.95 a game and allowed 3.05, a deficit of 0.10. The Red Wings on the road scored 2.78 and allowed 2.95, a deficit of 0.17. On goals the two halves are almost level, which is what the win rates say too.
The halves the method leaves out: Seattle on the road went 15-20-6, a 36.6% win rate, scoring 2.56 and allowing 3.37. Detroit at home went 21-16-4, 51.2%, scoring 3.10 and allowing 3.34.
Over the full season the Red Wings were the better team, by 13 points. They went 41-31-10 with 92 points and were outscored by 17. The Kraken went 34-37-11 with 79 points and were outscored by 37. Neither team played in the playoffs.
Seattle went 13-5-11 in one-goal games and won 8 of the 19 that went past regulation. Detroit went 18-5-10 and won 11 of its 21.
The Red Wings won both meetings in 2025-26. Their 4-3 win in Seattle on 6 December is in both halves of our number. Their 4-2 win at home on 18 November is in neither.
Pick: No bet on the Red Wings -102
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 2.9 points toward Detroit, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Kraken -118 and Red Wings -102 on 19 October 2026 at 22:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Detroit -112 and Seattle -108, and has moved toward the Kraken since. At the opening price the two numbers were closer still.
What changes it
A move toward Seattle. At +117 or longer, the Red Wings are a bet whatever the Kraken are priced at.
For Seattle to become the bet, the Kraken would have to be +129 or longer whatever Detroit’s price, or +155 against the Red Wings at -102. They are -118.
Neither team lists a goalie on ESPN’s injury list. John Gibson has appeared in six of Detroit’s eight games and Daniil Tarasov in three; Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer have appeared in five each of Seattle’s nine. ESPN names no starter for Tuesday. Seattle lists Brandon Montour as day-to-day, and Jacob Melanson, Ryan Lindgren and Jake O’Brien on injured reserve. Detroit lists Simon Edvinsson, J.T. Compher, Mason Appleton and Marco Kasper on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. The Kraken’s games went over 6.5 in 29 of 82, the Red Wings’ in 37 of 82. Seattle’s home games averaged 6.00 goals, Detroit’s road games 5.73.
That is 35.4% and 45.1%, an average of 40.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 47.8% and the under at 52.2%, so our number leans to the under, by 7.6 points. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet: under 6.5 at -120.
The puck line has Seattle -1.5 at +205 and Detroit +1.5 at -250, which is 31.5% and 68.5% without the margin. The Kraken won by two goals or more in 21 of 82 games, and the Red Wings lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Seattle -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 31.5% priced, a gap of 2.8 points. Pass on the puck line. The call on the game stays no bet.
Red Wings at Kraken, Tuesday 20 October, 9:40 PM ET, Climate Pledge Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 19 October 2026. Injury list and goalie games: ESPN’s game page, read 19 October 2026, 22:14 UTC.