NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyNJ+1.5U 5.5+120WSH-1.5O 5.5-142
NHL · Saturday 17 October
Devils vs Capitals Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Devils at +120. The price makes Washington a 56.3% winner, we make it 54.9%, and a 1.4-point gap is nowhere near enough.
The Washington Capitals are -142 and the New Jersey Devils +120 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 56.3% for Washington and 43.7% for New Jersey. Our number gives the Devils 45.1%. Both numbers have the Capitals as a modest home favourite, and they agree on almost everything else.
How 54.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team had one.
The Capitals went 25-11-5 at Capital One Arena: 25 wins, 11 regulation losses and 5 after regulation, a 61.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Devils went 21-20-0 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The midpoint is 54.9% for Washington and 45.1% for New Jersey.
New Jersey’s road record is a coin flip, and the price reads it close to one. That is why the two numbers sit so near each other.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -142 and +120 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Capitals are 56.3% and the Devils 43.7%.
Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Washington home games and 41 New Jersey road games. This season has started for both and none of it is in the figures. The Devils are 4-3-0 and beat the Rangers 7-1 at home on Thursday, so this is the second game in three days for them. The Capitals are 4-3-0 and beat Montreal 5-4 at home on Wednesday.
Washington at home, New Jersey on the road
The Capitals at home scored 3.39 a game and allowed 2.66, a surplus of 0.73. The Devils on the road scored 2.66 and allowed 3.17, a deficit of 0.51. On goals, the gap between the two halves is wider than the win rates suggest.
The halves the method leaves out: Washington on the road went 18-19-4, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.02 and allowing 3.29. New Jersey at home went 21-17-3, 51.2%, scoring 2.95 and allowing 3.02.
Over the full season the Capitals were the better side, without being a strong one. They finished 43-30-9 with 95 points and outscored opponents by 19. The Devils finished 42-37-3 with 87 points and were outscored by 24. Neither team played in the playoffs.
The Devils’ record leans on close games. They went 20-8-3 in one-goal games and won 13 of the 16 that went past regulation. Washington went 13-8-9 in one-goal games and won only 6 of its 15 past 60 minutes. Where the Capitals pulled clear was the bigger margins: they won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games, and New Jersey lost by two or more in 29 of 82.
The teams met four times in 2025-26 and split them 2-2. The two in Washington are in our number: the Devils won 3-2 in a shootout on 15 November, and the Capitals won 2-1 on 20 March. The two in New Jersey, a 4-3 Washington win in overtime on 27 December and a 7-3 Devils win on 2 April, sit in neither half.
Pick: No bet on the Devils +120
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 1.4 points toward New Jersey, against a threshold of 5.
The line opened at Capitals -148 and Devils +124 and has come in a little toward Washington. It read -142 and +120 on 16 October 2026 at 15:38 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A long move toward the Devils. Against the Capitals at -142, New Jersey would need +155 or longer to clear the bar.
For Washington to become the bet, the price would have to make the Capitals 49.9% or less with the margin out, which means Washington as the underdog. They are -142.
Lineups are the other unknown. This page states nothing about who plays for either team on 17 October. Check before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. The Capitals’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Devils’ in 40 of 82. Washington’s home games averaged 6.05 goals, New Jersey’s road games 5.83.
That is 53.7% and 48.8%, an average of 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%, so our number leans to the under, by less than 4 points. Short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line is no different. Washington is -1.5 at +180 and New Jersey +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. Averaging the Capitals’ 30 wins by two or more and the Devils’ 29 losses by two or more, Washington -1.5 lands 36.0% of the time. That is less than 2 points from the price. Pass. The call on the game stays no bet.
Devils at Capitals, Saturday 17 October, 1:00 PM ET, Capital One Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 15:38 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 16 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.