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Sevilla vs Levante Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 10 Oct 2026
LaLigaMon 12 Oct
Sevilla
at
Levante
SpreadTotalMoneySEV-0.5U 2.5+165LEV+0.5O 2.5+175

Bet Levante at +175. That price is also the floor: anything shorter is a pass.

DraftKings has Sevilla at +165, the draw at +230 and Levante at +175. With the book’s margin of 4.4% taken out, that is 36.1% for Sevilla, 29.0% for the draw and 34.8% for Levante. Our number gives Sevilla 36.4%, the draw 23.7% and Levante 39.9%.

The gap on Levante is 5.1 points. The draw sits 5.3 points below the market, and Sevilla 0.3 above it. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. Levante clear the line by 0.1 of a point, the thinnest margin the rule allows. This is a bet by the rule, not a strong one.

Our number gives Levante 39.9 percent, the market 34.8 percentSevilla at Levante: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals39.9%23.7%36.4%The market1X2 prices, margin removed34.8%29%36.1%Prices: Levante +175, draw +230, Sevilla +165. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.LevanteSevilla
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 10 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-10 19:39 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are the league’s average at that venue times the side’s scoring rate there times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.

Both sides’ rates come from last season. Levante have played 2 home games in LaLiga this season and Sevilla 3 away, fewer than the 6 the method needs, so each side’s figure is its 2025-26 LaLiga record at the venue, against that season’s league averages: 1.57 goals a game for the home side and 1.12 for the away side. Levante were in LaLiga last season, so the sample is top-flight on both sides.

Levante at home in 2025-26 went 7-5-7 (wins, draws, losses) over 19 games, scoring 1.37 a game and conceding 1.47. Sevilla away went 5-3-11 over 19, scoring 1.16 and conceding 1.84.

Against the averages, Levante scored at 0.87 times the league rate at home and Sevilla conceded at 1.17 times it away. That gives Levante 1.60 expected goals. Sevilla scored at 1.03 times the rate away and Levante conceded at 1.31 times it at home, which gives Sevilla 1.52.

Levante at home and Sevilla awayLevante at home and Sevilla away, this season and lastLevante at home, 2026-27 Spanish LALIGA1-0-1 in 2scored 3.50 a gameconceded 3.00 a gameLevante at home, 2025-26 Spanish LALIGA (our number)7-5-7 in 19scored 1.37 a gameconceded 1.47 a gameSevilla away, 2026-27 Spanish LALIGA2-1-0 in 3scored 1.67 a gameconceded 0.67 a gameSevilla away, 2025-26 Spanish LALIGA (our number)5-3-11 in 19scored 1.16 a gameconceded 1.84 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 10 October 2026.

The figure that carries the number is Sevilla’s away defence last season: 35 goals conceded in 19 games.

The table, this season and last

Sevilla have played seven games of 2026-27 and are 5th of 20 with 13 points from 4-1-2, 10 scored and 9 conceded. Levante have played six and are 17th with 5 points from 1-2-3, 8 scored and 12 conceded. Last season Sevilla finished 13th with 43 points and Levante 16th with 42.

Levante and Sevilla in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastLevante2026-27 Spanish LALIGA17 of 20, 5 pts in 62025-26 Spanish LALIGA16 of 20, 42 pts in 38Sevilla2026-27 Spanish LALIGA5 of 20, 13 pts in 72025-26 Spanish LALIGA13 of 20, 43 pts in 38Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 10 October 2026.

The case against the bet is this season. Sevilla are 2-1-0 away, with 5 scored and 2 conceded, and sit twelve places above Levante. Levante are 1-0-1 at home, with 7 scored and 6 conceded. Five games at the venue between them prove nothing, so the number rests on the 38 games of last season, when Sevilla lost 11 of 19 away and Levante lost 7 of 19 at home. A reader who trusts the current table over last season’s venue records will not take this bet, and the method has no answer to that beyond its sample size.

Pick: Levante +175

Levante to win at +175. With the margin at 4.4%, +175 is the shortest price that keeps our 39.9% at least 5 points above the market’s. Shorter than +175, it is a pass.

What changes it

The price. Any move shorter on Levante ends the bet. Sevilla would need +206 or longer to become one, and the draw +413 or longer. Those lines assume the book’s margin stays where it is.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side on 12 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The line is 2.5 goals, over +105 and under -130. The market, margin removed, has the over at 46.3% and the under at 53.7%. Our number puts the over at 60.4% and the under at 39.6%, 14.1 points higher on the over. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

Four of Levante’s 6 league games this season went over 2.5 goals, and 4 of Sevilla’s 7.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since April 2021, in all competitions. Sevilla won 1-0 and 3-2 at Levante and 5-3 at home, all between April 2021 and April 2022. Levante won both meetings of last season: 3-0 at Sevilla on 4 January 2026 and 2-0 at home on 23 April 2026. The method does not use any of them.

Last meetings of Levante and SevillaLevante and Sevilla: the last meetings ESPN holds23 Apr 2026Levante 2-0 Sevilla4 Jan 2026Sevilla 0-3 Levante21 Apr 2022Levante 2-3 Sevilla24 Oct 2021Sevilla 5-3 Levante21 Apr 2021Levante 0-1 SevillaHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 10 October 2026.

Sevilla at Levante, Spanish LaLiga, Monday 12 October, 3:00 PM ET, Estadi Ciutat de València. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 October 2026, 19:39 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 10 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.