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AS Roma vs Napoli Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 22 Oct 2026
Serie ASat 24 Oct
AS Roma
at
Napoli

Our prediction on AS Roma at Napoli: take Napoli +170. We have Napoli at 45.9% to win and the market at 34.1%, an 11.8-point gap against the 5 a bet needs.

DraftKings lists Napoli at +170, the draw at +235 and AS Roma at +140. Take out the book’s 8.6% margin (the extra it builds in, so that the three prices add to more than 100%) and the market reads Napoli 34.1%, the draw 27.5% and AS Roma 38.4%.

Our number is Napoli 45.9%, the draw 25.7% and AS Roma 28.4%. Napoli are 11.8 points above the market, the draw 1.8 below and AS Roma 10.0 below. Only one of the three clears the threshold.

Our number gives Napoli 45.9 percent, the market 34.1 percentAS Roma at Napoli: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals45.9%25.7%28.4%The market1X2 prices, margin removed34.1%27.5%38.4%Prices: Napoli +170, draw +235, AS Roma +140. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.NapoliAS Roma
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 22 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-22 21:20 UTC.

How 45.9% is reached

Expected goals for each side start from the league’s average goals at that venue, then scale by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against that average. A Poisson model on the two figures gives the home win, the draw and the away win.

Each club has 3 games at the relevant venue this season, so the method stays on 2025-26: 19 home games for Napoli, 19 away games for AS Roma, and a league average over 380 games of 1.28 goals for the home side and 1.15 for the visitor.

Napoli scored at home at 1.36 times the league’s home rate and AS Roma conceded away at 0.87 times it. That gives Napoli 1.5 expected goals. AS Roma scored away at 1.19 times the visitor’s rate, and Napoli conceded at home at 0.82 times it, which leaves AS Roma 1.13. A 0.37-goal edge in expected goals does not make a favourite, but it makes Napoli the likelier winner than a +170 price says.

This season so far

The method does not see 2026-27, and 2026-27 points the other way. AS Roma are 3rd with 17 points from 5-2-0, 16 scored and 3 conceded. Napoli are 9th with 10 points from 3-1-3, 10 scored and 7 conceded.

AS Roma’s three away games this season went 2-1-0 with 6 scored and none conceded. Napoli’s three at home went 2-0-1, 5 scored and 2 conceded. Three games is too few to move a rate, and the model does not move it. The market has clearly weighed this start more heavily than we do.

Napoli at home, AS Roma on the road

Last season Napoli at home went 13-4-2 (wins, draws, losses) in 19, scoring 1.74 a game and conceding 0.95. AS Roma on the road went 10-1-8 in 19, scoring 1.37 and conceding 1.11.

AS Roma’s home record is the better half of their season: 13-3-3, 1.74 scored and 0.53 conceded a game. It is also the half the method leaves out of this game, as it leaves out Napoli’s 10-3-6 away record. The call rests on one fact: AS Roma travel worse than they play at home, and Napoli at home are the stronger side.

Napoli at home and AS Roma awayNapoli at home and AS Roma away, this season and lastNapoli at home, 2026-27 Italian Serie A2-0-1 in 3scored 1.67 a gameconceded 0.67 a gameNapoli at home, 2025-26 Italian Serie A (our number)13-4-2 in 19scored 1.74 a gameconceded 0.95 a gameAS Roma away, 2026-27 Italian Serie A2-1-0 in 3scored 2.00 a gameconceded 0.00 a gameAS Roma away, 2025-26 Italian Serie A (our number)10-1-8 in 19scored 1.37 a gameconceded 1.11 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season, when that record holds six or more.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 22 October 2026.

The season around it

Last season Napoli finished 2nd of 20 with 76 points, 23-7-8, and AS Roma 3rd with 73, 23-4-11. Napoli scored 58 and conceded 36, AS Roma scored 59 and conceded 31. The two clubs were a place apart, so the market’s 4-point lead for AS Roma is a bet on this season’s seven games over last season’s thirty-eight.

Napoli and AS Roma in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastNapoli2026-27 Italian Serie A9 of 20, 10 pts in 72025-26 Italian Serie A2 of 20, 76 pts in 38AS Roma2026-27 Italian Serie A3 of 20, 17 pts in 72025-26 Italian Serie A3 of 20, 73 pts in 38Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 22 October 2026.

ESPN holds five meetings since April 2024. Napoli won two and three were drawn, and AS Roma won none. With Napoli listed at home, the games finished 2-2 on 15 February 2026, 1-0 on 24 November 2024 and 2-2 on 28 April 2024. With AS Roma listed at home, Napoli won 1-0 on 30 November 2025 and the teams drew 1-1 on 2 February 2025. None of the five feeds the number.

Last meetings of Napoli and AS RomaNapoli and AS Roma: the last meetings ESPN holds15 Feb 2026Napoli 2-2 AS Roma30 Nov 2025AS Roma 0-1 Napoli2 Feb 2025AS Roma 1-1 Napoli24 Nov 2024Napoli 1-0 AS Roma28 Apr 2024Napoli 2-2 AS RomaHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 22 October 2026.

Pick: Napoli +170

Napoli +170 at DraftKings, read 22 October 2026, 21:20 UTC. The gap is 11.8 points against a threshold of 5. The draw and AS Roma are not bets: the draw is 1.8 points below the market and AS Roma 10.0 below.

What kills the bet

The price. Napoli stay a bet at +126 or longer. Shorter than that, the gap falls under 5 points and the call becomes no bet. The draw would need +346 or longer and AS Roma +294 or longer to be bets, against +235 and +140 now. Each figure assumes the 8.6% margin holds.

The sample. When Napoli have played 4 home games and AS Roma 4 away, the method moves to this season’s records, and the number will move with them. This page says nothing about who is available on 24 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -115 and under -110. Without the margin the market has the over at 50.5% and the under at 49.5%. Our number has the over at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, a 1.6-point gap on the over. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference.

Last season 20 of Napoli’s 38 league games went over 2.5 goals, and 14 of AS Roma’s 38. This season it is 3 of 7 for Napoli and 4 of 7 for AS Roma.

AS Roma at Napoli, Italian Serie A, Saturday 24 October, 12:00 PM ET, Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 21:20 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, league games this season (2026-27 Italian Serie A) and 2025-26 Italian Serie A. Nothing here states who is available.