Genoa vs AS Roma Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet AS Roma to win at -225. The bet holds only down to -227.

DraftKings opens our Genoa vs AS Roma prediction with Roma -225, the draw +340 and Genoa +550. Its margin across the three is 7.3%. Without it the market gives Roma 64.5%, the draw 21.2% and Genoa 14.3%. Our number has Roma at 70.1%, the draw at 21.2% and Genoa at 8.8%.

That is a 5.6-point gap on Roma. The draw is level, 0.0 either way, and Genoa sit 5.5 points below the market. A side is a bet when our chance clears the market’s by 5 points or more, so Roma pass the bar by 0.6 of a point. This is as thin as a bet gets on this method, and the price has almost no room to move.

How the 70.1% is built

Roma’s expected goals come from how often Roma score at home and how often Genoa concede away; Genoa’s from the reverse. Each rate is read as a multiple of the league average, and a Poisson model, which treats goals as random counts around that expectation, converts the two figures into a home win, a draw and an away win.

The method uses this season’s record at the venue from 6 games. Roma have played 3 at home and Genoa 2 away, so both sides take 2025-26: Roma’s 19 home games, Genoa’s 19 away games, and that season’s averages over 380 games, 1.28 goals a game for the home side and 1.15 for the visitor.

At home last season Roma went 13-3-3 (wins, draws, losses), scoring 1.74 a game and conceding 0.53. Away, Genoa went 4-7-8, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.32. Set against the averages, Roma scored at 1.36 times the home rate and Genoa conceded at 1.03 times it. Genoa scored at 0.87 of the away rate and Roma conceded at 0.46 of it. Out come 1.79 expected goals for Roma and 0.46 for Genoa.

The table, this season and last

Roma are 3rd after 6 games with 14 points: 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats, 14 scored and 3 conceded. They also finished 3rd last season, with 73 points. Genoa are 17th with 4 points from 1-1-4, 5 scored and 11 conceded, after 16th place and 41 points last season.

The few games at the venue this season point the same way as the number. Roma are 2-1-0 at home with 8 scored and 3 conceded; Genoa are 0-0-2 away, 1 scored and 3 conceded. Two and three games are too few for the method to price from, and they are not why this is a bet.

Pick: AS Roma -225

AS Roma to win, at -225 at DraftKings. It is a bet down to -227 and no further. Shorter than -227, with the margin as it stands, the gap is under 5 points and this becomes a pass.

What changes it

The price, above all. Any move on Roma past -227 ends the bet. The draw would turn into a bet at +476 or longer, and Genoa at +2352 or longer.

Team news. Nobody’s fitness or selection is stated on this page for 17 October, so look at the lineups before placing anything.

The total

The line is 2.5 goals, over -145 and under +115, which is 56.0% over and 44.0% under once the margin is out. Our number leans the other way, 39.0% over and 61.0% under, a 17.0-point gap toward the under. The method does not bet totals, so that lean stays a note and not a pick.

Last season 14 of Roma’s 38 games went over 2.5, and 20 of Genoa’s 38.

The last meetings

Five meetings since May 2024 appear in ESPN’s records, all competitions together: three Roma wins, one draw and one Genoa win. The latest, in March 2026, went 2-1 to Genoa, listed as the home side. The method does not use them.

Genoa at AS Roma, Italian Serie A, Saturday 17 October, 2:45 PM ET, Olimpico. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 October 2026, 20:31 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 15 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.