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Serie A · Sunday 11 October

Monza vs Lazio Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026
Serie ASun 11 Oct
Monza
at
Lazio

No bet on Monza at Lazio. Monza have 3 away games this season, fewer than the 6 the method needs, and no away record of 4 games or more from last season in this league.

DraftKings has Lazio at -185, the draw at +290 and Monza at +450. With the book’s 8.7% margin taken out, that is 59.7% for Lazio, 23.6% for the draw and 16.7% for Monza. We have no number to set against it, so there is no gap to measure.

Why there is no number

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away. It uses a side’s record at the venue this season from 6 games.

When a side has fewer than 6 this season, the method takes its record at the same venue from last season. Monza have neither. They have 3 away games in 2026-27, and they do not appear in ESPN’s 2025-26 Serie A table, so there is no away record to borrow. Lazio have 2 home games this season and would take their 19-game home record from 2025-26.

That home record was 8-6-5, wins first, with 1.42 scored and 1.32 conceded a game. This season Lazio are 1-1-0 at home. Monza are 0-1-2 away, with 4 scored and 8 conceded in 3 games.

Lazio at home and Monza awayLazio at home and Monza away, this season and lastLazio at home, 2026-27 Italian Serie A1-1-0 in 2scored 1.50 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameLazio at home, 2025-26 Italian Serie A8-6-5 in 19scored 1.42 a gameconceded 1.32 a gameMonza away, 2026-27 Italian Serie A0-1-2 in 3scored 1.33 a gameconceded 2.67 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Five games in, Lazio are 3rd of 20 with 13 points, 4-1-0, and have conceded 3 goals. Monza are 16th with 4 points, 1-1-3, and have conceded 12. Last season Lazio finished 9th with 54 points from 38 games.

Lazio and Monza in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastLazio2026-27 Italian Serie A3 of 20, 13 pts in 52025-26 Italian Serie A9 of 20, 54 pts in 38Monza2026-27 Italian Serie A16 of 20, 4 pts in 52025-26 Italian Serie Anot in this leagueThree points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Lazio’s 3 away wins this season came with 1 goal conceded. Their 2025-26 away record was 6-6-7. Five games are too few to say which of those seasons this one resembles.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. Monza have 3 away games and no earlier Serie A away record in ESPN’s tables, three short of the 6 the method needs.

Prices were read on 8 October 2026 at 07:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. They do not change the call.

What changes it

Three more Monza away games. With 6 away this season, the method runs, but that cannot happen before this game is played.

This page states nothing about either lineup on 11 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 2.5 goals, over -120 and under -110. With the margin out, that prices the over at 51.0%. Monza’s games this season went over 2.5 in 4 of 5 and Lazio’s in 2 of 5. We have no Poisson count for this game, and the total is never a bet on these pages.

Monza have not beaten Lazio in the last five meetings ESPN holds: Lazio won three and two were drawn, the latest 5-1 at Lazio on 9 February 2025. They are not in the method.

Last meetings of Lazio and MonzaLazio and Monza: the last meetings ESPN holds9 Feb 2025Lazio 5-1 Monza10 Nov 2024Monza 0-1 Lazio4 May 2024Monza 2-2 Lazio23 Sep 2023Lazio 1-1 Monza2 Apr 2023Monza 0-2 LazioHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Monza at Lazio, Italian Serie A, Sunday 11 October, 9:00 AM ET, Olimpico, Roma. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.