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Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 20 Oct 2026
Champions LeagueWed 21 Oct
Arsenal
at
Bayern Munich
SpreadTotalMoneyARS+0.5U 2.5+235MUN-0.5O 2.5+105

No bet on Arsenal at Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich have one home game in this season’s Champions League league phase and Arsenal one away game, with four of each last season, and our number needs six at the venue in one season or the other.

The market leans to the home side. DraftKings has Bayern Munich at +105, Arsenal at +235 and the draw at +290, a margin of 4.3%. Take the margin out and Bayern Munich are 46.8%, Arsenal 28.6% and the draw 24.6%. With no chance of our own for any of the three, there is nothing to set against the 5-point gap a bet requires.

Why there is no number

The method compares the home side’s scoring and conceding at home with the visitor’s away, using league-phase games only. Two games into this season, neither club has more than one at the venue that matters here.

Bayern Munich won their one home game 5-0 and drew their one away game 3-3. Arsenal won 3-0 at home and 1-0 away. One game at a venue says almost nothing about the next one, however wide the score.

Last season gives four games a side, and both records are perfect or close to it. Bayern Munich at home in the 2025-26 league phase went 4-0-0 (wins, draws, losses), scoring 3.00 a game and conceding 0.50. Arsenal away went 4-0-0 as well, scoring 2.75 and conceding 0.25. Across that phase a home side averaged 1.93 goals and a visitor 1.45, so both clubs scored well above the average at these venues and let in well below it.

Bayern Munich at home and Arsenal awayBayern Munich at home and Arsenal away, this season and lastBayern Munich at home, 2026-27 UEFA Champions League1-0-0 in 1scored 5.00 a gameconceded 0.00 a gameBayern Munich at home, 2025-26 UEFA Champions League4-0-0 in 4scored 3.00 a gameconceded 0.50 a gameArsenal away, 2026-27 UEFA Champions League1-0-0 in 1scored 1.00 a gameconceded 0.00 a gameArsenal away, 2025-26 UEFA Champions League4-0-0 in 4scored 2.75 a gameconceded 0.25 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season, when that record holds six or more.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 19 October 2026.

Four games is a thin base for any of those rates, and the method does not stretch it into a price.

The table

This season Arsenal are 7th of 36 on six points from two games, with 4 scored and none conceded. Bayern Munich are 10th on four points, 1-1-0, with 8 scored and 3 conceded. Last season these were the top two of the league phase: Arsenal 1st with 24 points, 8-0-0, 23 scored and 4 conceded, and Bayern Munich 2nd with 21 points, 7-0-1, 22 scored and 8 conceded.

Bayern Munich and Arsenal in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastBayern Munich2026-27 UEFA Champions League10 of 36, 4 pts in 22025-26 UEFA Champions League2 of 36, 21 pts in 8Arsenal2026-27 UEFA Champions League7 of 36, 6 pts in 22025-26 UEFA Champions League1 of 36, 24 pts in 8Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 19 October 2026.

Three points apart over eight games last season, two apart after two this season. The market makes the home side a clear favourite all the same, at 46.8% against 28.6%.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the result. Neither Bayern Munich’s home record nor Arsenal’s away record in this competition reaches six games in either season, so the method gives no chance to compare with +105, +235 or +290.

What changes it

More games at the venue, which the format limits. Last season each club played 8 league-phase games, 4 at home and 4 away. If this season has the same shape, neither side reaches six home or six away games before the phase ends, and the page stays without a number whatever the prices do.

This page does not cover who plays for either club on 21 October. Check the lineups before betting.

The total

DraftKings sets the total at 2.5 goals, with the over -165 and the under +135. Without the margin that is 59.4% for the over and 40.6% for the under. We do not compute a total, and the total is never the bet on this page.

For reference only: Bayern Munich’s two games this season produced five and six goals, Arsenal’s three and one. Last season Bayern Munich’s eight league-phase games produced 30 goals and Arsenal’s 27.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings between the clubs, from July 2017 to November 2025, across the competitions it holds for the pair. Arsenal won two, Bayern Munich one, and two were drawn. With Arsenal listed as the home side, Arsenal won 2-1 on 17 July 2019 and 3-1 on 26 November 2025, and it finished 2-2 on 9 April 2024. With Bayern Munich listed at home, it finished 1-1 on 19 July 2017 and Bayern Munich won 1-0 on 17 April 2024.

Last meetings of Bayern Munich and ArsenalBayern Munich and Arsenal: the last meetings ESPN holds26 Nov 2025Arsenal 3-1 Bayern Munich17 Apr 2024Bayern Munich 1-0 Arsenal9 Apr 2024Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich17 Jul 2019Arsenal 2-1 Bayern Munich19 Jul 2017Bayern Munich 1-1 ArsenalHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 19 October 2026.

Only the November 2025 meeting falls inside the two seasons the method reads.

Arsenal at Bayern Munich, UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 21 October, 3:00 PM ET, Allianz Arena, Munich. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 20 October 2026, 16:10 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 19 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.