Ny Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024

NY Yankees Yankees vs Kansas City Royals MLB Sat, Oct 5, 18:38 pm.
NY Yankees Yankees
ML: -195
0
0
Kansas City Royals
ML: 165
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At 6:38 PM ET, the Royals and Yankees face off in an AL matchup. This one is taking place at Yankee Stadium in New York, and the Royals have an overall record of 86-76, while the Yankees are 94-68.

Michael Wacha is starting for the Royals, while the Yankees are going with Gerrit Cole. New York is the heavy favorite on the money line, with the odds sitting at -203 compared to the Royals at +172. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

Kansas City vs. New York Key Information

  • Teams: Royals at Yankees
  • Where: Yankee Stadium New York
  • Date: Saturday, October 5th
  • Betting Odds NYY -203 | KC +172 O/U 7.5

The Royals Can Win If…

As the Royals prepare to face the Yankees in game one of their AL Divisional Round series, they’ll be on the road, where they went 41-40 this season, compared to 45-36 at home. Kansas City has won three straight as road underdogs and three straight overall on the road. As underdogs, they posted a 38-45 record this year.

On the run line, the Royals went 91-73 during the regular season, with a +0.7 run-scoring margin on the road and +0.5 at home. They’ve covered the run line in four straight road games. The under has hit in five consecutive Royals games, and their overall over/under record is 69-90. Today’s 7.5-run line is lower than 80.9% of their games this season.

Michael Wacha gets the start for the Royals today as he faces the Yankees on the road. So far this season, he has made 29 starts and has a record of 13-8 with an ERA of 3.35. Wacha’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his 29 appearances, he has turned in 14 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Wacha finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. The right-hander has been solid for the Royals down the stretch, giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the MLB, and have the 11th best slugging percentage in the league. One area where the Royals have struggled is with their plate discipline, as they are 25th in walks and have the 2nd most strikeouts in the league.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been the team’s top hitter this season, batting .332 with 32 homers and 109 RBIs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak and has gone 10/34 in his last nine games. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season, with a batting average of .271 and 27 homers. Perez is also on a three-game hitting streak.

  • The Royals are 6-4 in their last ten games.
  • Over their last five games, the Royals are 4-1 vs. the run line.
  • Kansas City has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
  • The Royals have an average of 1.6 runs per game over their last five games.
  • Across their last ten road games, the Royals are 7-3
  • Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
  • Kansas City has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
  • In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 2.7 runs per game on offense

The Yankees Can Win If…

As the Yankees prepare to host the Royals in game one of their AL Divisional Round series, they’ll look to build on their 94-68 regular season record. New York went 44-37 at home this year, compared to 50-31 on the road. As home favorites, they posted a 43-35 mark.

New York finished the regular season with an 84-78 run line record, including 35-46 at home. They averaged a +0.4 run differential per game at home, compared to +1.4 on the road. The Yankees went 86-71 on over/unders this season, and 85.2% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5-run line. The over has hit in their last two games.

Yankees starter Gerrit Cole has made 17 appearances this year and has a record of 8-5. His ERA for the season is 3.41, along with a WHIP of 1.13. Cole’s last outing came on September 26th against the Orioles, where he picked up the win. In that start, he went 6 2/3 innings and didn’t give up a run. Looking back further, Cole had given up at least two homers in three straight starts before that outing. So far, he has made eight quality starts and is averaging 9.38 strikeouts per nine innings.

Heading into the game, the Yankees are the top home run-hitting team in the league and are 3rd in runs scored at 5 runs per game. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .248 as a team, which is 7th in the league.

Not only is Aaron Judge leading the MLB with 144 RBIs, but he also has the best batting average in the league at .322. Over his last eight games, Judge is 9/26 with five home runs. Juan Soto is also among the league leaders in home runs, as he is 4th in the league and 2nd on the Yankees with 41 homers.

  • The Yankees are 5-5 in their last ten games.
  • Over their last five games, the Yankees are 2-3 vs. the run line.
  • New York has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
  • The Yankees have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
  • Across their last ten home games, the Yankees are 7-3
  • Looking back across the Yankees last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
  • New York has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
  • In their ten most recent road games, the Yankees have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Look for the Yankees to come out on top as they host the Royals today, and we are leaning towards taking them on the money line. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the under, as this is our 2nd lowest projected scoring game of the day. However, this game does have the highest home run projection, and if you are looking for a strikeout pitcher, Gerrit Cole is our 4th highest projected starter in terms of strikeouts.

The stage is set for a highly anticipated American League Division Series (ALDS) as the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees rekindle a once-fierce rivalry that defined the late 1970s. Decades have passed since their last postseason showdown, but the competitive fire is about to be reignited in what promises to be an epic clash. This five-game series will feature a new generation of stars, but the history between these two teams is impossible to ignore.

By Kody Miller | October 1, 2024
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A Storied Rivalry Revisited

The Royals and Yankees last met in the playoffs in 1980, capping off a four-year stretch when they faced each other in the American League Championship Series (ALCS) from 1976 to 1980. Those intense battles pitted Royals legends like George Brett, Willie Wilson, and Dennis Leonard against Yankees icons such as Reggie Jackson, Thurman Munson, and Ron Guidry.

While those names are etched into the lore of both franchises, today’s teams are writing a new chapter in the rivalry. Interestingly, only the managers, Aaron Boone (New York) and Matt Quatraro (Kansas City), were alive to witness those historic matchups, adding a layer of reverence for this rekindled showdown.

The Pitching Matchup: Cole vs. Wacha

As Game 1 kicks off, the focus shifts to the mound, where two standout right-handers will square off. For the Yankees, Gerrit Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA in the regular season) is expected to set the tone. Cole brings significant playoff experience, holding a 10-6 record with a 2.93 ERA in 17 career postseason starts. His dominance is further underscored by his recent form, finishing the regular season by allowing just one earned run over his final 15 ⅔ innings.

On the Royals’ side, Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) takes the ball. Wacha enjoyed a strong regular season, going 9-2 over his last 15 starts. While his postseason numbers (4-3, 5.21 ERA) might not be as impressive as Cole’s, he has been a steady force for Kansas City this year. His familiarity with the Yankees, against whom he holds a 2.97 ERA in 11 career appearances, will be key to Kansas City’s hopes of gaining an early edge.

The Stars of Today: Witt Jr., Judge, and Soto

The heart of this playoff series revolves around the modern-day stars who define each team. For Kansas City, the spotlight is squarely on Bobby Witt Jr., the 24-year-old sensation who has quickly emerged as one of baseball’s elite talents. Witt capped a stellar season by winning the American League batting title with a .332 average, complemented by 32 home runs and 109 RBIs. His postseason debut has already been remarkable, with game-winning hits in both victories over the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card round.

Witt’s performance will be vital if Kansas City is to overcome a Yankees team powered by their dynamic duo: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Two years after breaking the single-season AL home run record with 62, Judge continued his dominance in 2024, blasting 58 home runs and driving in a career-high 144 RBIs. Soto, acquired from the San Diego Padres in the offseason, added 41 homers and 128 runs scored in his first year in pinstripes, forming a terrifying 1-2 punch alongside Judge.

These three players—Witt, Judge, and Soto—will likely dictate the flow of this series, and their performances could define its outcome.

A Tale of Two Teams

Despite sharing the spotlight in this ALDS, the Royals and Yankees enter the postseason with very different trajectories.

The Kansas City Royals are making their first postseason appearance since winning the 2015 World Series. The team has been in rebuilding mode, enduring three 100-plus loss seasons in recent years, including a 106-loss campaign just last year. Those tough seasons positioned the Royals to select Bobby Witt Jr. second overall in the 2019 MLB Draft, and he has quickly proven his worth as the franchise cornerstone.

Meanwhile, the New York Yankees are playoff regulars, with their last World Series title coming in 2009. Despite some ups and downs in recent seasons, they finished 2024 with the American League’s best record, and expectations are sky-high. For Yankees manager Aaron Boone, the addition of Juan Soto has been pivotal in transforming the team into a legitimate World Series contender once again.

Keys to Victory

For the Yankees, the blueprint for success is built around their power hitting and strong pitching staff. Gerrit Cole’s playoff experience, combined with the offensive firepower of Judge and Soto, gives them a distinct advantage on paper. The Yankees also have recent history on their side, having taken five out of seven games against the Royals during the regular season.

However, regular-season records can often be deceptive when it comes to the playoffs. The Royals have shown resilience, sweeping the Orioles in the Wild Card round and riding the momentum of their young core. Bobby Witt Jr. is a difference-maker, and if he continues his hot streak, the Royals could shock the baseball world.

Michael Wacha, who signed a two-year, $32 million deal with Kansas City last December, will need to pitch like the ace the Royals hope he can be. He’ll need to outduel Cole and silence the Yankees’ explosive offense if Kansas City is to pull off an upset.

What’s at Stake?

Both teams have plenty riding on this series. For Kansas City, a win would signal that their rebuild is complete, with their young core proving it can compete at the highest level. For the Yankees, anything short of a deep playoff run will be seen as a failure, given their star power and the franchise’s rich postseason tradition.

While the Yankees enter as the favorites, the Royals have the underdog spirit and a budding superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. who can change the course of any game. This series is poised to be a thrilling battle, and regardless of the outcome, it will add a new chapter to the storied rivalry between these two franchises.

Conclusion

As the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees prepare to meet in the ALDS, the echoes of past playoff battles between these teams reverberate through the series. This year’s matchup isn’t just about history, though; it’s about new stars, new legacies, and the desire to write the next great chapter in postseason lore. Whether it’s the powerful bats of Judge and Soto, or the rising brilliance of Witt Jr., this ALDS promises to deliver drama, excitement, and a rivalry renewed for a new generation of baseball fans.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS
WinningCappers, The most trusted name in sports handicapping
Thu, Oct 3, 17:50 pm.
spread
moneyline
over/under
NY Yankees Yankees
-1.5
110
-195
O 7.5
-115
Kansas City Royals
+1.5
-130
165
U 7.5
-105
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