Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions May 7th 2025

At 9:30 ET, the Thunder (-553) will host the Nuggets (+409) in a divisional matchup. Oklahoma City (-11) is favored and the over/under line is 229.5.

Denver is 4th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Northwest Division. They have won their last two games and are 50-32 overall. The Thunder are 1st in the West and 1st in the Northwest. They have a record of 68-14.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Wednesday, May 7th
• Betting Odds OKC -11, DEN +409 | OKC -553 O/U 229.5

The Nuggets Can Win If…

Denver improved to 50-32 this season with a 121-119 win over the Thunder on Monday. The Nuggets were +2 point underdogs going into the game and covered the spread with the win. The total points of 240 went over the line of 229.5.

After a 10-0 run by the Thunder, Denver fell behind early, trailing 33-24 after the 2nd quarter. However, they rallied in the 2nd half, outscoring the Thunder 35-30 in the 3rd and 36-29 in the 4th to complete the comeback.

Nikola Jokić powered the Nuggets to a win over the Thunder, scoring 42 points and grabbing 22 rebounds. He shot 51.7% from the field and added 18 points in the 4th quarter. Aaron Gordon contributed 22 points and 14 rebounds, while Jamal Murray added 21 points despite shooting 37.5%.

As a team, Denver shot 44.2% from the field and made 10 threes at a 31.2% rate. Gordon hit 3 threes at 50%, while Jokić and Murray each made 2, with Murray shooting 28.6% from deep.

Defensively, the Nuggets gave up 119 points to the Thunder, allowing 27 points in the 1st quarter, 33 in the 2nd, 30 in the 3rd, and 29 in the 4th. Despite the high score, they held Oklahoma City to 42% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder hit 15 threes at a 34% clip. Denver also sent them to the line 28 times, where they made 20 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 42 defensive rebounds, allowed 13 offensive boards, and added 6 steals and 5 blocks.

• In their last ten games away from home, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 5-4-1 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 109 points per game in these contests.
• The Nuggets have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread.
• Over their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 2-0-1 vs. the spread.

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The Thunder Can Win If…

Oklahoma City dropped to 68-14 on the season after a 121-119 home loss to Denver on Monday. The Thunder, favored by 10.5 points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 240, surpassing the over/under line of 229.5.

OKC appeared to take control with a 10-0 run early, turning a 24-18 deficit into a 28-24 lead. They extended their lead by outscoring Denver 33-24 in the second quarter. However, the Nuggets rallied, winning the third quarter 35-30 and the fourth 36-29, erasing the Thunder’s 90-85 lead heading into the final period.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 33-point, 10-rebound performance led the Thunder in their 121-119 loss to the Nuggets, with 14 points coming in the 1st quarter and another 13 in the 4th. Alex Caruso added 20 points, hitting 5 threes at 55.6% efficiency, and Jalen Williams contributed 16 points despite shooting just 25% from the field.

Oklahoma City connected on 15 threes, shooting 34.9% from deep and 42% overall. Gilgeous-Alexander made 2 threes at 33.3%, while Caruso hit 5, shooting 55.6% from beyond the arc.

Despite a strong defensive start, the Thunder couldn’t hold off the Nuggets in the 3rd and 4th quarters, where they allowed 35 and 36 points, respectively, leading to a 121-119 loss. Oklahoma City did a solid job defending the perimeter, holding Denver to 10 made threes on 31% shooting.

However, the Thunder sent the Nuggets to the line 33 times, where they converted 27 free throws. Oklahoma City also struggled on the boards, giving up 21 offensive rebounds. They did manage to rack up 12 steals and 11 blocks in the game.

• In their last five home games, Oklahoma City has averaged 123 points per game while allowing 109. The team’s record in this stretch was 5-0 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Thunder have a straight up record of 8-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.
• In their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Thunder is our pick to not only win with a projected score of 154-140. But we also favor them to cover the spread. Our bet is on the Thunder at -11.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 229.5 and our model has the Nuggets and Thunder finishing with a combined 294 points. Our pick is to take the over.

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Nuggets Seize Game 1 Thriller as Thunder Look to Bounce Back

The Denver Nuggets made a statement in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series, storming back late to defeat the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder 121-119 on Monday night. Now, as the Thunder prepare to host Game 2 on Wednesday, they’re counting on the resilience that carried them all season to spark a response.

Thunder Face Rare Test of Resolve

Oklahoma City has been one of the league’s most consistent teams, losing back-to-back games just twice all season. After a dominant sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, the Game 1 loss to Denver marks a shift in tone for the young squad.

“There’s nothing we can do about what just happened… All we can do is be better for the next game, and that’s what we’re focused on.”
— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder Guard

Head coach Mark Daigneault emphasized that adversity is expected in the playoffs, acknowledging that the first-round cruise was the exception, not the rule.

“The playoffs are a mountain to climb, so it’s not gonna be easy for anybody.”
— Mark Daigneault, Thunder Head Coach

Despite throwing multiple defensive looks at Nikola Jokic, the Thunder couldn’t contain the reigning MVP late in the game. Jokic finished with a dominant 42-point, 22-rebound performance, overpowering Oklahoma City in crunch time.

Nuggets Channel Veteran Grit in Comeback Win

Denver was down by 13 points in the fourth quarter but found a way to claw back, led by the brilliance of Jokic and a clutch three-pointer from Aaron Gordon with under four seconds to play. The play was set up by none other than Russell Westbrook—returning to Oklahoma City and adding another signature moment to his storied career.

“They gave me a chance and believed in me when I was a little, young teenager… But the reason why they love me is my competitive nature, competitive spirit.”
— Russell Westbrook, Nuggets Guard

Jokic’s performance reminded everyone why he’s considered by many to be the best in the game.

“The best player in the world. Plain and simple.”
— Russell Westbrook, on Nikola Jokic

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Denver’s playoff path has been anything but easy. They battled through a grueling seven-game series against the Clippers and dealt with the late-season firing of head coach Michael Malone. But under interim leadership, they’ve shown grit and clutch play when it counts.

Momentum on the Line Before the Series Shifts West

Game 2 looms large. A win for Denver would give them a commanding 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Colorado, where they’ll host Games 3 and 4. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is aiming to avoid back-to-back losses for only the third time this season and reassert their identity as the West’s top team.

“We didn’t expect our whole run to be sunshine and rainbows.”
— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder Guard