Arizona Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

Arizona Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils November 30th 2024

Coming into this week 14 matchup, the Arizona State Sun Devils are 9-2 on the season, and they are on the road vs. the Arizona Wildcats, who are 4-7 on the season. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET from Arizona Stadium in Tucson, and you can catch the game on FOX. The Sun Devils are favored by -8.5 points, with the over/under line currently sitting at 53.5 points.

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Arizona State vs. Arizona Key Information

• Teams: Sun Devils at Wildcats
• Where: Arizona Stadium Tucson
• Date: Saturday, November 30th
• Betting Odds ARZST -330 | ARZ +258 O/U 53.5

The Sun Devils Can Win If…

Arizona State enters Week 14 with a 9-2 record, sitting at 31st in our power rankings. They are a lock for bowl eligibility and have a 31.4% chance of winning the Big 12. The Sun Devils also have the 13th best odds of making the CFB playoff, with a 26.7% chance according to our projections.

Arizona State is 6-0 at home and 3-2 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in six games, going 6-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +7.7 points per game, and they’ve covered the spread in nine of 11 games, with a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home.

The over/under line for this week’s game is 53.5 points. Arizona State’s over/under record is 6-5, with their games averaging 53.4 points. Their average over/under line this season has been 53.1 points, and they’ve exceeded the line by an average of 0.3 points per game.

Arizona State’s offense is ranked 20th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. They are averaging 30.5 points per game, which places them 42nd nationally. Their third-down conversion rate is impressive at 47.7%, ranking 13th in the country. The Sun Devils rely heavily on their run game, averaging 40.7 rushing attempts and 194.1 rushing yards per game.

Cam Skattebo leads the ground attack with 1,225 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has thrown for 2,153 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, with a passer rating of 101. Jordyn Tyson is the leading receiver with 958 yards and 9 touchdowns on 67 catches.

Arizona State’s defense is ranked 39th nationally, allowing 22.8 points per game. Against BYU, they gave up 23 points but also forced two interceptions. The Sun Devils allowed 391 total yards, including 297 passing yards, but limited BYU to just 94 rushing yards.

Opponents have averaged 123.2 rushing yards per game on 30 attempts against Arizona State, which ranks 42nd in the country. The defense has allowed a 59.5% completion rate and 223.6 passing yards per game, ranking 96th nationally.

• Spanning across their last three games, Arizona State have gone 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 3-0 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
• The Arizona State Sun Devils have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 8-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Wildcats Can Win If…

With a 4-7 record this season, Arizona is out of bowl contention as they prepare to face Arizona State in Week 14. The Wildcats are 2-3 at home and rank 72nd in our power rankings. They’ve been favored in five of their 11 games this year.

Arizona’s ATS record stands at 2-8, and they have an average scoring margin of -7.1 points per game. As the favorite, they are 1-4 against the spread.

The over/under line for this week is 53.5 points. Arizona’s games have averaged 53.3 points, while their average over/under line has been 55.1 points, with their over/under record at 5-5.

Arizona’s offense has been heavily reliant on their passing game, ranking 20th in passing attempts per game. They are 32nd in passing yards, averaging 259 yards per game, and 25th in completions. Overall, they are 82nd in scoring, with 23.1 points per game, and we have them ranked 79th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14.

Noah Fifita, Arizona’s quarterback, has thrown for 2,832 yards this season, with 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 84. Leading the receiving corps is Tetairoa McMillan, who has 1,251 yards and seven touchdowns on 78 receptions. On the ground, Quali Conley has rushed for 719 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry.

Arizona’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 30.2 points per game. In their recent 49-28 loss to TCU, they gave up 49 points, including six rushing touchdowns, while allowing 452 total yards, 303 of which came through the air.

Opponents have averaged 227.8 passing yards per game against Arizona, completing 63.9% of their passes. The Wildcats have also allowed 167.4 rushing yards per game this season.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Arizona has a record of 1-2. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Arizona has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 3-7 on the over-under.

The Lean

Our projections have Arizona State winning this matchup 35-25 over Arizona. With Arizona State coming in as -8.5 point favorites, we like their chances to cover the spread.

For a totals pick, we would lean towards the over, as our model is projecting a combined 60 points, which is well above the current line of 53.5 points.

Weekly College Football Picks

No. 16 Arizona State Continues Playoff Push Against Underwhelming Arizona in High-Stakes Territorial Cup

Arizona State (ASU) and Arizona are gearing up for one of the most anticipated rivalries in college football—the Territorial Cup—on Saturday in Tucson, Arizona. In their inaugural season in the Big 12, the teams have defied preseason expectations in dramatically opposite directions. ASU, ranked No. 16, is on the brink of securing a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP) and the Big 12 Championship, while Arizona faces a disappointing 4-7 season under first-year head coach Brent Brennan.

A Season of Surprises

The 2023 Big 12 preseason rankings painted a starkly different picture for these two programs:

• Arizona State: Coming off a dismal 3-9 season in Kenny Dillingham’s first year, the Sun Devils were pegged to finish last. Yet, they’ve risen to an impressive 9-2 record, earning national respect.
• Arizona: Fresh from a 10-3 season and an Alamo Bowl victory over Oklahoma, the Wildcats retained key talents, including quarterback Noah Fifita and All-American wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. However, injuries and inconsistent play have dashed their bowl eligibility hopes.

The Rivalry Factor

The Territorial Cup isn’t just another game—it’s a storied battle for state supremacy. Both Dillingham and Brennan have deep personal ties to the rivalry:

• Kenny Dillingham: A Phoenix native and lifelong ASU fan, Dillingham emphasized the importance of keeping his team focused amid playoff pressures.
• Brent Brennan: A former Arizona supporter and husband of an Arizona alum, Brennan called the matchup “the biggest game of the year.”

Regardless of playoff scenarios, Brennan insists this game’s value transcends records:
“All that matters is we’re playing the team from up north,” he stated.

ASU’s Meteoric Rise

Under Dillingham, ASU has undergone a cultural transformation:

• Brotherhood and Resilience: Star running back Cam Skattebo attributes the team’s success to a strong sense of unity. “The culture has changed, man. Everybody loves each other,” he said.
• Key Victories: Last week’s thrilling 28-23 win over then-No. 14 BYU vaulted ASU five spots in the CFP rankings.

Player to Watch: Cam Skattebo

Skattebo’s performance has been nothing short of spectacular:

• Rushing Yards: 1,221 on 226 carries.
• Touchdowns: 14 total, making him one of the nation’s top running backs.

Skattebo will be a critical factor against Arizona’s injury-depleted defense.

Arizona’s Struggles

Despite keeping stars like Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, the Wildcats have stumbled:

• Injuries: Defensive standouts Jacob Manu, Treydan Stukes, and Gunner Maldonado have missed most of the season, leaving gaps that opponents have exploited.
• Coaching Scrutiny: Social media has buzzed with calls for Brennan’s removal, though he has emphasized long-term rebuilding over immediate success.

Player to Watch: Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan continues to shine despite Arizona’s rough season:

• Career Milestone: Last week, he became Arizona’s all-time leader in receiving yards (3,355), surpassing Bobby Wade’s record.
• 2023 Stats: McMillan remains a reliable weapon for quarterback Noah Fifita, especially against ASU’s vulnerable secondary.

Key Matchups

1. Arizona’s Passing Game vs. ASU’s Secondary:
   ASU ranks 83rd nationally in pass defense, allowing 228.4 yards per game. Fifita and McMillan could exploit this weakness.
2. Cam Skattebo vs. Arizona’s Defense:
   Skattebo faces a battered Wildcats defense that has struggled to contain elite running backs. His ability to control the tempo will be pivotal.
3. Mental Edge:
   While ASU battles playoff pressure, Arizona has the freedom of playing spoiler, a role that often leads to unpredictable outcomes.

Playoff Implications for ASU

A win against Arizona would position ASU for the Big 12 Championship, though tiebreaker scenarios remain complex. The Sun Devils are tied atop the standings with Colorado, Iowa State, and BYU. Dillingham must keep his players focused to navigate these high stakes.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Brennan downplayed the Wildcats’ role as potential spoilers, emphasizing the rivalry’s intrinsic importance:
“It’s not about ruining ASU’s season. It’s about what this game means to everybody here.”

Dillingham, on the other hand, remains laser-focused on the bigger picture:
“This isn’t just about the Territorial Cup—it’s about taking the next step in the process. There’s still work to do.”

Final Thoughts

The Territorial Cup promises a thrilling clash of narratives:

• Arizona State: A team riding momentum and unity, hungry to keep its playoff hopes alive.
• Arizona: A proud program seeking redemption and the chance to disrupt ASU’s dream season.

Expect fireworks in Tucson as these rivals battle for more than just bragging rights.