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Game Preview Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona State
The Arizona State Sun Devils and Iowa State Cyclones meet in a rematch of last year’s Big 12 Championship Game, but this time both programs are fighting to stay relevant in the conference race.
Arizona State (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) has dropped two of its last three contests, including a 24-16 home loss to Houston last week. The setback came with another injury to quarterback Sam Leavitt’s right foot — a recurring issue that will sideline him for Saturday’s game. The Sun Devils fell 42-10 in their only other game without him this season.
Iowa State (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) enters in the midst of a three-game skid after blowing a 14-point lead in a 41-27 home loss to BYU. Head coach Matt Campbell’s squad is looking to avoid its first four-game conference losing streak since 2020.
For real-time line movement and betting splits across the Big 12, check the NCAAF odds and scores board.
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Line Movement and Odds
Arizona State opened as a 2.5-point road underdog, with the total hovering near 48. The spread ticked up slightly after news of Leavitt’s injury, reflecting uncertainty around backup Jeff Sims. Early sharp money has leaned on the under, anticipating a more conservative offensive approach from both sides.
For updated predictions and sharp consensus picks ahead of kickoff, visit the NCAAF picks page.
Arizona State Sun Devils Outlook
The Arizona State Sun Devils enter a critical stretch with sixth-year senior Jeff Sims taking over at quarterback. Sims has appeared in seven games this season, completing 52.6 percent of passes for 451 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He was sacked five times in his lone start at Utah earlier this year.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham will likely lean on the running game and short passing routes to protect his veteran signal-caller. Arizona State ranks fifth in the Big 12 in rushing attempts per game and averages 135 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Sun Devils remain solid, allowing only 21.1 points per game and ranking fourth in the conference in sacks.
Arizona State Sun Devils Injury Report
Sam Leavitt (QB) – Out (Foot)
Tevin White (RB) – Questionable (Shoulder)
Jaylin Chatman (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
C.J. Fite (DL) – Questionable (Knee)
Bryson Long (LB) – Out (Arm)
Iowa State Cyclones Outlook
The Iowa State Cyclones will try to snap their three-game skid and protect home field in Ames. Quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for 1,933 yards with 10 touchdowns but has struggled recently, tossing six interceptions in his past five outings, including three against BYU.
Iowa State averages 26.8 points per game but has been inconsistent on third downs and in red-zone efficiency. The defense, once a program strength, has allowed 31 or more points in four of the last five games. Running back Abu Sama III remains a bright spot, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and providing balance for Becht in the passing game.
Iowa State Cyclones Injury Report
Rocco Becht (QB) – Probable (Shoulder)
Jayden Higgins (WR) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Jacob Ellis (LB) – Out (Knee)
Cole Peterson (OL) – Questionable (Ankle)
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
Arizona State’s ability to protect Jeff Sims will define this matchup. If the offensive line can keep Iowa State’s front four at bay, the Sun Devils’ balanced attack could generate steady drives. Conversely, Iowa State must capitalize on turnovers and field position — two areas that cost them in recent losses.
Both teams will likely lean on their running games early, with tempo control and time of possession playing major roles. Whichever defense forces the first turnover could swing momentum quickly in what projects as a low-scoring contest.
Betting Trends
- Arizona State is 4-1 straight up in its last five games following a loss.
- The Sun Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
- Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.
- The Cyclones are 2-5 to the under in their last seven games.
- Arizona State is 8-3 ATS in Big 12 play since 2023.
- The under is 5-1 in Iowa State’s last six conference matchups.
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Prediction
With Sam Leavitt out, Arizona State will rely heavily on defense and ball control. Iowa State’s offense has been too turnover-prone to trust, even at home, but its defensive pressure could force mistakes from Sims. Expect a physical, low-scoring game decided in the trenches.
Projected Score: Iowa State 23, Arizona State 20
Best Bet: Under 48
Spread Lean: Iowa State -2.5
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