Navy Midshipmen vs Tulane Green Wave Picks and Predictions November 16th 2024

Navy Midshipmen vs Tulane Green Wave November 16th 2024

ESPN2 is covering the 12:00 ET kickoff as the Tulane Green Wave and Navy Midshipmen face off at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis. Tulane is 8-2 on the season, and Navy comes in with a 7-2 record. The Green Wave are favored at -6.5 points, with the over/under line set at 54.5 points for this week 12 college football matchup.

Tulane vs. Navy Key Information

Tulane enters Week 12 against Navy with an 8-2 record and is ranked 20th in our power rankings. They are a lock for bowl eligibility and have a 60.2% chance of winning the American Athletic Conference.

The Green Wave is 7-0 as the favorite this season and 0-2 as the underdog. They’ve gone 4-0 on the road as favorites and have a +22.3 average scoring margin. Tulane’s ATS record stands at 7-2, with a 4-1 mark on the road.

Their over/under record is 6-3, with games averaging 59.7 points. This week’s line is set at 54.5 points, and Tulane’s average over/under line this season is 54.7 points, with an average margin of +5.8 points.

Tulane’s offense has been impressive this season, ranking 4th in scoring with 41 points per game. They are also 3rd in third-down conversions, converting 52.8% of their attempts. Their run game is a major strength, as they are 4th in rushing attempts, averaging 229.6 yards per game on the ground. We have them ranked 26th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12.

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Makhi Hughes leads the rushing attack with 1,209 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,059 yards with a passer rating of 113. He has 16 touchdown passes and four interceptions, completing 65.6% of his throws. Mario Williams is the leading receiver with 655 yards and three touchdowns.

Tulane’s defense has been impressive this season, ranking 26th nationally by allowing just 18.7 points per game. They’ve given up 119.2 rushing yards per game on 27.2 attempts, the 7th fewest rushing attempts in the country. Through the air, opponents are averaging 193.5 passing yards per game, completing 56.4% of their passes with a passer rating of 68.8, the 17th lowest in the nation.

In their recent game against Temple, Tulane’s defense allowed only 6 points and 5 first downs. They held Temple to 159 total yards, including 56 passing yards and 103 rushing yards on 22 carries.

Navy enters Week 12 against Tulane with a 7-2 record, and they are already guaranteed bowl eligibility. They have a 5.8% chance of winning the American Athletic Conference, according to projections. At home, the Midshipmen are 3-1, and they’ve gone 3-1 on the road this season.

Their ATS record stands at 6-2, with an average scoring margin of +13.4 points per game. Navy is 5-1 against the spread as the favorite and has gone 3-1 ATS both at home and on the road.

Navy’s over/under record is 6-2, with their games averaging 57.9 points. This week’s line is set at 54.5 points, while their average over/under line for the season has been 49.8 points.

Navy’s offense is ranked 13th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12, and they are 19th in scoring, averaging 35.7 points per game. Their rushing attack is their strength, ranking 6th in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game, with 260.1 yards on the ground per contest. Eli Heidenreich leads the team with 315 rushing yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and he has scored two touchdowns.

Quarterback Blake Horvath has thrown for 1,154 yards, with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 109. Navy ranks 17th in passer rating nationally. They are 96th in passing attempts per game, averaging 136.9 yards through the air. Nathan Kent leads the receivers with 116 yards and one touchdown.

In their recent game, Navy’s defense was impressive, allowing just 7 points in a 28-7 win over South Florida. They held the Bulls to 60 rushing yards on 25 attempts and forced two interceptions, although they did give up 282 passing yards.

On average this season, Navy’s defense has allowed 22.2 points per game. They rank 103rd in the nation against the run, giving up 159.4 rushing yards per game, and 102nd against the pass, allowing 230 yards per game.

Navy comes into this game as +6.5 point underdogs at home against Tulane. We have a projected final score of 31-25 in favor of Navy, making them a good bet to cover the spread.

With the over/under line set at 54.5 points, our projection of 56 points suggests that taking the over is the best play for this matchup.

No. 25 Tulane, Navy Square Off with AAC Championship on the Line

A crucial showdown in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) is set for Saturday afternoon as No. 25 Tulane travels to Annapolis, Md., to face Navy in a matchup with significant implications for the AAC title game on Dec. 6.

Tulane (8-2, 6-0 AAC) currently sits second in the conference standings, while Navy (7-2, 5-1) is hot on their heels in third place. With only a few games remaining in the regular season, both teams are jockeying for a spot in the AAC Championship Game, with the winner of this contest potentially earning a berth.

Stars on Display: Hughes vs. Horvath

The matchup pits two of the conference’s most dynamic players against each other: Tulane’s powerful running back Makhi Hughes and Navy’s versatile quarterback Blake Horvath.

Hughes has been a workhorse for the Green Wave, racking up 1,209 rushing yards this season—good for fourth in the FBS. His combination of power, speed, and vision makes him a threat on every down. Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall emphasized Hughes’ impact:

“He’s as good of a back as there is. He’s really athletic, big, physical, and breaks tackles. He’s just the total package.”

On the other side, Navy’s Blake Horvath has been the catalyst for the Midshipmen’s offense. Known for his dual-threat capabilities, Horvath has rushed for 870 yards and 13 touchdowns while also passing for 1,154 yards and 11 scores. Despite playing through a thumb injury sustained in mid-October, Horvath remains a game-changer. Tulane’s Sumrall is well aware of the challenge Horvath presents:
“He’s unbelievable. The kid is very athletic, can beat you with his legs, and throws it really well. Great anticipation and awareness.”

Navy’s Balanced Attack

Navy’s offense traditionally revolves around its potent ground game, which ranks fifth in the nation, averaging 259.1 rushing yards per game. However, the Midshipmen have added a dangerous passing element to their repertoire, with Horvath completing multiple deep passes, including eight touchdown throws of at least 31 yards.

Navy head coach Brian Newberry highlighted the importance of keeping Horvath involved on the ground despite his injury:

“He’s got to be running the football for us. For us to be hitting on all cylinders, he’s got to carry the football.”

After suffering back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Rice, Navy bounced back with a decisive 28-7 victory over South Florida last week, keeping their AAC championship hopes alive.

Tulane’s Offensive Firepower

While Navy focuses on the ground game, Tulane brings a more balanced offensive attack led by quarterback Darian Mensah. The dual-threat signal-caller has thrown for 2,059 yards and 16 touchdowns, often using play-action passes set up by Hughes’ dominance on the ground.

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Navy’s defense, led by standout cornerback Dashaun Peele, will have its hands full containing Tulane’s offense. Peele has been a game-changer for the Midshipmen, recording four interceptions this season, two of which he returned for touchdowns. His ability to disrupt passing lanes could be key in slowing down Tulane’s aerial attack.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Makhi Hughes vs. Navy’s Front Seven: Hughes’ ability to pound the ball between the tackles will test Navy’s run defense. If he can establish a rhythm early, it could open up the passing game for Mensah.
2. Blake Horvath’s Dual-Threat Ability: Tulane’s defense will need to contain Horvath, who can beat teams with his legs and arm. Keeping him in check could be the difference-maker in this contest.
3. Dashaun Peele vs. Tulane’s Receivers: Peele’s knack for interceptions and big plays in the secondary will be critical against Mensah’s passing game. If Peele can force turnovers, it could swing momentum in Navy’s favor.

What’s at Stake

With the AAC Championship Game on the horizon, the stakes couldn’t be higher for both teams. A win for Tulane would solidify their position in the title game, while Navy needs a victory to stay in contention and keep pressure on first-place Army.

The outcome of this game will likely have a significant impact on the AAC standings and could potentially affect the College Football Playoff rankings as well.