Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks November 30th 2024

Arkansas and Missouri are set to face off on Saturday, November 30th, with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 ET at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia. Missouri comes in as the -3.5 point favorite over Arkansas, with the over/under line set at 54.5 points. The game will be broadcast on SECN, and the money line odds are currently -179 for Missouri and +147 for Arkansas. Missouri has an 8-3 record this season, while Arkansas is 6-5.

Arkansas vs. Missouri Key Information

Arkansas enters Week 14 against Missouri with a 6-5 record and a 32nd-place spot in our power rankings. While they have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible, they are out of the running for the Southeastern title.

The Razorbacks are 3-0 as favorites this season, but they’ve been the underdog in six of their eleven games. Their scoring margin is +6.5 points per game, and they are 5-4 against the spread, going 3-0 on the road and 2-4 at home.

Arkansas’ over/under record is 4-5, with an average line of 55.5 points. They’ve averaged 55.7 points per game, and this week’s line is set at 54.5 points.

Heading into week 14, Arkansas ranks 39th in points per game, averaging 31.1. They are 46th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game is 25th nationally, with 272.7 yards per game, and they are 28th in third-down conversions, converting 44.3% of their attempts.

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Quarterback Taylen Green has thrown for 2,583 yards, completing 60.9% of his passes. He has 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions, with a passer rating of 87. Leading the rushing attack is Ja’Quinden Jackson, who has 703 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Andrew Armstrong leads the team in receiving with 1,012 yards on 69 catches but has just one touchdown.

Arkansas’ defense heads into this week ranked 35th nationally in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 117.7 yards per game. In their last game, they held Louisiana Tech to 57 rushing yards on 31 attempts. The Razorbacks also allowed 190 passing yards and two touchdowns, while forcing 43 pass attempts.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 62.4% of their passes against Arkansas, averaging a 92.7 passer rating. The Razorbacks rank 138th in passing yards allowed, giving up 251.1 yards per game through the air. Overall, Arkansas is allowing 24.6 points per game this season.

Missouri enters Week 14 with an 8-3 record and a 4-0 mark at home. While they have a 0% chance of winning the Southeastern, they are 100% bowl-eligible. The Tigers have gone 5-0 as favorites and are ranked 21st in our CFB power rankings.

Missouri’s ATS record stands at 6-3, with a +9.2 average scoring margin. They are 4-1 against the spread as favorites and 3-1 at home.

The over/under line for this week is 54.5 points. Missouri’s games have averaged 49.2 points, and their over/under record is 4-5, with an average line of 50 points.

Missouri’s offense is averaging 29.2 points per game heading into week 14, placing them 47th in the nation. They are ranked 43rd in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is impressive, ranking 15th nationally at 47.3%.

Quarterback Brady Cook has thrown for 2,080 yards with a 64.3% completion rate. He has nine touchdowns and two interceptions, with a passer rating of 95. Missouri ranks 23rd in rushing attempts, averaging 170.7 yards per game. Nate Noel leads the ground game with 779 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Theo Wease Jr. has 709 receiving yards on 51 catches.

Missouri’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 20th in the nation by allowing just 20 points per game. They’ve given up 132.7 rushing yards per game and 181.5 passing yards, which ranks 26th nationally. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 83.7 and a 59% completion rate against Missouri.

In their latest game against Mississippi State, Missouri’s defense allowed 20 points, giving up 338 total yards. Mississippi State ran the ball 22 times for 147 yards and threw for 191 yards on 16 completions.

Arkansas is the +3.5 point underdog on the road in their week 14 matchup against Missouri. We like the Razorbacks to not only cover the spread but to win the game, with a projected final score of 30-22 in their favor.

With the over/under line set at 54.5 points, our projection of 52 combined points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this matchup.

Arkansas Eyes Historic First Win at No. 21 Missouri

The Battle Line Rivalry between Arkansas and Missouri is set to heat up—even as the weather cools down—when the Razorbacks visit the undefeated-at-home No. 21 Tigers on Saturday in Columbia, Missouri. The Razorbacks are chasing their first win at Memorial Stadium, while the Tigers look to cap their regular season with a spotless home record.

Tigers Roar at Home

Missouri (8-3, 4-3 SEC) has turned Memorial Stadium into a fortress this season, boasting a perfect 6-0 home record. Four of those victories have come by one possession, showcasing the Tigers’ ability to thrive under pressure. Adding to their advantage, Saturday’s game is forecasted to feature temperatures in the 20s, with a chance of snow—a quintessential late-November SEC showdown.

Head coach Eli Drinkwitz downplayed the weather’s significance:
“The reality is that’s just part of the game,” he said.

The Tigers are riding high after a 39-20 victory over Mississippi State, where Marcus Carroll ran for three touchdowns and quarterback Brady Cook posted an efficient performance, completing 75 percent of his passes with a touchdown and no interceptions.

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman offered high praise for Cook:
“What he brings to the team with his legs and his arm and his leadership – he’s won a lot of games as the starting quarterback at Missouri.”

Razorbacks Seek Redemption

Arkansas (6-5, 3-4 SEC) is bowl-eligible but aims to finish the season with a winning record. The Razorbacks showed resilience last week with a dominant 35-14 win over Louisiana Tech. Quarterback Taylen Green accounted for four touchdowns—two passing and two rushing—while the defense limited Louisiana Tech to just 229 total yards.

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Despite their success last week, the Razorbacks face a daunting task: they are 0-6 all-time in Columbia, with their last two trips ending in narrow two-point defeats. For Pittman, this rivalry is personal.
“Missouri is right up there at the top of rivals for us,” he said. “Anything that you think of (like the Razorbacks’ record at Missouri) can be a little bit more of a motivator.”

Pittman is also using the memory of last year’s lopsided 48-14 loss to Missouri in Fayetteville as fuel, though he acknowledges that year-to-year motivation can be tricky in college football.
“They beat the hell out of us last year,” he said. “That should motivate us, but the problem is a lot of the kids that are on the team and playing weren’t here last year.”

Key Matchups

1. Brady Cook vs. Arkansas’ Defense
   Cook’s dual-threat ability will test an Arkansas defense that has been stingy in key moments this season. The Razorbacks held Tennessee to just 14 points in their upset of the then-No. 4 Volunteers and have consistently pursued the ball relentlessly under Pittman’s leadership.
2. Arkansas’ Ground Game vs. Missouri’s Defensive Line
   Marcus Carroll’s three-touchdown performance last week showcased Missouri’s offensive depth, but Arkansas’ ability to control the clock with its rushing attack could neutralize the Tigers’ offense.
3. Weather as the Wildcard
   Cold and potential snow could impact both teams, particularly Arkansas, which is unaccustomed to such conditions. Special teams and turnovers could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome.

What’s at Stake

For Missouri, this game is about solidifying its dominance at home and preserving bragging rights in the rivalry. Drinkwitz framed it as a legacy game for his senior class:
“I think it’s more about a legacy piece for this senior class and for this year’s team.”

Arkansas, meanwhile, has already faced six ranked opponents this season (1-5) and is eager to prove it can overcome a tough environment to achieve a historic win.

Expect a physical, hard-fought game with significant pride—and the Heroes Trophy—on the line.