Smu Mustangs vs California Golden Bears Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

SMU Mustangs vs California Golden Bears November 28th 2024

SMU Mustangs is the heavy favorite in this week 14 matchup against the California Golden Bears, with a -13.5 point spread in their favor. The game is set for 3:30 ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, and ESPN2 will be covering the action. The over/under line is currently at 57.5 points. The money line odds have SMU at -498 and California at +371. SMU comes in with a 10-1 record, while California is 6-5 for the season.

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California vs. SMU Key Information

• Teams: Golden Bears at Mustangs
• Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium Dallas
• Date: Saturday, November 30th
• Betting Odds SMU -498 | CAH +371 O/U 57.5

The Golden Bears Can Win If…

California enters Week 14 with a 6-5 record, and they are 100% bowl-eligible. They are 3-3 on the road and 2-2 at home this season. The Golden Bears have been favored in six of their 11 games and are 4-2 as the favorite.

California’s ATS record stands at 6-4, with a +7.2 average scoring margin. They are 3-1 against the spread on the road and 3-3 at home, going 3-3 as the favorite and 3-1 as the underdog.

This week’s over/under line is 57.5 points. California’s games have averaged 48.6 points, with an average over/under line of 52 points. Their over/under record is 3-5-2, with eight games having lower lines than this week’s total.

California’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 22nd in passing attempts and 21st in passing yards, with 276.1 yards per game. They are 12th in completions and 13th in completion percentage, completing 67.8% of their passes. Heading into week 14, they are 54th in scoring, averaging 27.9 points per game, and we have them 74th in our offensive power rankings.

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 3,004 yards, completing 68.7% of his passes, with a passer rating of 99. He has 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. On the ground, California is averaging 119.6 rushing yards per game. Jaivian Thomas leads the team with 598 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Nyziah Hunter has 493 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

California’s defense ranks 25th nationally, allowing 20.7 points per game. They’ve given up 228.3 passing yards per game, ranking 103rd, but have held opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 67.4, the 12th-lowest in the country. Opponents have completed 55.6% of their passes against Cal’s defense.

In their recent game against Stanford, Cal’s defense allowed 21 points, giving up 261 total yards. Stanford rushed 39 times for 120 yards and threw for 141 yards on 15 completions. The Golden Bears also rank 22nd in the nation against the run, allowing just 109.6 rushing yards per game.

• California will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-1-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the California Golden Bears have gone 5-5 straight up. Their record vs the spread sits at 6-4 in these matchups, while posting a 3-5-2 over-under mark.

The Mustangs Can Win If…

SMU enters Week 14 with a 10-1 record and a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible. They have a 42% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast and hold the 11th best odds to make the CFB playoff at 62.7%. So far, they are 4-1 at home and 4-0 on the road this season.

The Mustangs have been favored in seven of their 11 games, going 6-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +18.3 points per game, and they are 6-3 against the spread this season.

SMU’s over/under record is 5-4, with their games averaging 60.3 points. This week’s line is set at 57.5 points, compared to their average line of 54 points.

SMU’s offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, ranking 5th nationally in scoring. They are 26th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,521 yards with a passer rating of 107, completing 66.7% of his passes. SMU ranks 30th in passing yards per game.

Jennings has 17 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions this season. On the ground, Brashard Smith has rushed for 1,086 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored 13 touchdowns. SMU is 27th in rushing attempts, averaging 189.5 rushing yards per game.

SMU’s defense shined in their recent 33-7 win over Virginia, allowing just 7 points and 173 total yards. They held Virginia to 65 rushing yards on 39 attempts and 108 passing yards.

On the season, SMU ranks 9th nationally, giving up just 97.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve allowed an average passer rating of 76, which is 35th best in the country.

• SMU has put together a record of 3-0 over their past three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 3-0 in those same games.
• Across SMU’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 9-1. The team’s record vs the spread was just 7-3, in addition to an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Lean

SMU is the heavy favorite in their week 14 matchup against California, with the point spread set at -13.5 in their favor. We expect SMU to win convincingly, with a projected final score of 40-21.

Given our projection of 61 total points, we recommend taking the over, as it exceeds the current over/under line of 57.5 points. For the best bet, take SMU to cover the spread while also looking for the over in this one.

Weekly College Football Picks

Southern Methodist University (SMU) is on the verge of a historic season as they prepare to host the University of California (Cal) on Saturday afternoon in Dallas. Ranked No. 9 in the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, the Mustangs (10-1, 7-0 ACC) have their eyes set on a perfect regular season and a chance to strengthen their case for a coveted playoff spot.

The Stakes Are Sky-High for SMU

In their first year as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), SMU has emerged as a dominant force. A win against Cal would not only cap a perfect regular season but also provide momentum heading into the ACC Championship Game. For head coach Rhett Lashlee, the goal is clear: leave no doubt in the minds of the CFP committee.

“You’ve got the College Football Playoff, so every game matters. That’s what’s so cool about it now. The regular season is important,” Lashlee emphasized. “We want to finish strong, build momentum, and prove we belong.”

SMU’s Stars Leading the Charge

• Kevin Jennings – Dual Threat QB: Jennings has been the engine of SMU’s success, amassing 2,521 passing yards with 17 touchdowns and adding 315 rushing yards with four more scores. His versatility keeps defenses guessing.
• Brashard Smith – Ground Game Powerhouse: Smith has been a revelation, racking up 1,089 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. His explosive runs have been instrumental in the Mustangs’ offensive dominance.
• Defensive Dominance: SMU’s defense ranks tied for 14th nationally with 20 takeaways, powered by a formidable defensive line that wreaks havoc on opposing offenses.

Cal: Underrated but Dangerous

Coming off a thrilling 24-21 victory over Stanford, Cal (6-5, 2-5 ACC) has secured bowl eligibility and is eager to finish with a winning record. While oddsmakers favor SMU, the Golden Bears have proven they can challenge top-tier teams.

“You’d be hard-pressed to find a better 6-5 team in America,” Lashlee admitted. “They’ve played a lot of close games and could easily be 9-2.”

• Fernando Mendoza – Consistent Leader: Cal’s quarterback has thrown for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and just six interceptions, demonstrating poise and precision.
• Defensive Playmakers: Cal boasts the ACC’s top scoring defense, allowing only 20.7 points per game. Their turnover margin (+13) is tied for the best in the conference, led by defensive back Nohl Williams, who has an NCAA-best seven interceptions.

What’s at Stake for Both Teams

• SMU: A win secures an undefeated regular season and keeps their playoff hopes alive. A loss would derail their momentum heading into the ACC title game and hurt their CFP chances.
• Cal: With bowl eligibility secured, Cal aims to improve their bowl game prospects and spoil SMU’s playoff aspirations. This game represents an opportunity to make a statement.

Historical Context

Saturday’s matchup marks the first ACC meeting between these teams and only their second encounter ever. SMU won their lone previous meeting, a 13-6 contest in 1957.

Keys to the Game

• SMU: Maintain balance on offense and capitalize on defensive opportunities. Jennings and Smith must continue to dominate, while the defense pressures Cal’s Mendoza into mistakes.
• Cal: Lean on their defense to contain SMU’s explosive offense and force turnovers. Mendoza needs to deliver a clean, efficient performance to keep the Golden Bears competitive.

A Spoiler Mindset for Cal

Despite being underdogs, Cal is embracing the role of spoiler. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza summarized their approach: “Our task is to make the best bowl game right now. To do that, we have to go into Dallas, give it our best, and ruin SMU’s season.”

Conclusion: High Stakes, High Drama

This game epitomizes the intensity of college football. SMU is fighting to cement its playoff spot, while Cal seeks to finish their season on a high note and play spoiler. With both teams boasting standout players and plenty on the line, Saturday’s matchup promises to be a thrilling battle.