Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions May 1st 2025

Maple Leafs vs Senators Game Preview: Ottawa’s Comeback Gains Momentum

What began as a commanding 3-0 series lead for the Toronto Maple Leafs has quickly turned into a familiar nightmare. After dropping Games 4 and 5, Toronto finds itself suddenly facing pressure—yet again—in a pivotal Game 6 on the road against the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night.

Yes, it’s still Ottawa that’s one loss away from elimination. But it’s Toronto that’s playing with the weight of history—and that history isn’t pretty.

Check live betting lines and player props on the NHL odds page.

Ottawa Defiant in Game 5 Shutout

The Senators made their loudest statement of the series Tuesday night with a 4-0 dismantling of Toronto at Scotiabank Arena. The game was never close.

Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle each notched two assists and added late empty-net goals. Their presence was felt all over the ice, especially when they helped set up Thomas Chabot’s second-period marker to break the game open.

Dylan Cozens added a short-handed goal in the third, his second of the postseason. But perhaps no player was more crucial than Linus Ullmark, who recorded his first career playoff shutout and looked every bit like the 2023 Vezina Trophy winner.

“His game has been building,” said Senators head coach Travis Green. “He’s starting to feel comfortable. That’s when he’s most dangerous.”

Ullmark allowed 12 goals in the first three games. Since then? Just three on 63 shots.

Leafs’ History Haunts in Elimination Opportunities

Toronto is staring down a haunting stat: the team has won just one of its past 14 potential series-clinching games. And while they did win a playoff series last spring—ending a long drought—the wounds of past collapses are still fresh in the minds of fans and media alike.

The last time Toronto won a Game 7? April 20, 2004—ironically, against the Senators.

First-year head coach Craig Berube has heard the chatter.

“There’s more noise and a lot of past stuff that I hear around here,” Berube told reporters Wednesday. “The only pressure they have is from their own teammates, in my opinion.”

Still, Berube acknowledged that line changes are on the table, though he remains wary of over-adjusting.

Power Plays and Shortfalls

Toronto’s offense has been productive—but not impenetrable.

Mitch Marner leads the team with seven points (1G, 6A), while Auston Matthews and William Nylander each have six. John Tavares and Matthew Knies have scored three goals apiece.

Toronto has converted on five of 16 power-play opportunities, good for over 30%—a solid mark. However, they’ve also allowed two short-handed goals, including one to Cozens in Game 5 that shifted momentum completely.

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Ottawa Building Belief

Let’s not sugarcoat it: pulling off a comeback from down 0-3 is rare. Only four teams in NHL history have ever done it. The last? The 2014 Los Angeles Kings.

The Senators know the odds—but they’re not concerned with them.

“We just have to take it one game at a time,” Tkachuk said. “We’re not looking at the whole thing. We’re just trying to play the right way and keep pushing.”

With the home crowd behind them Thursday, the Battle of Ontario could turn electric if Ottawa keeps its foot on the gas.

Explore advanced series stats and playoff trends on the NHL team breakdowns.

What Happens If Ottawa Forces Game 7?

If the Senators win Thursday, Game 7 will return to Toronto on Saturday—a scenario that no one in blue and white wants to imagine, especially considering their poor track record in winner-take-all games.

But that’s the opportunity Ottawa is now chasing. A team that limped into the playoffs is suddenly alive—and might be the one with less pressure and more confidence.

For in-depth postseason predictions, visit the NHL picks page.

Stat Breakdown: Maple Leafs vs Senators

Players to Watch

Brady Tkachuk (OTT) – Physical, emotional, and productive. He’s become the heartbeat of Ottawa’s resurgence.

Linus Ullmark (OTT) – If he’s on again in Game 6, Toronto may be in real trouble.

Mitch Marner (TOR) – He’s driving the offense but needs to translate assists into goals in critical moments.

Matthew Knies (TOR) – The rookie has been one of the few bright spots on offense. He’ll need to keep that going under pressure.

FAQs

When is Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 6?
Thursday night in Ottawa, with puck drop scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.

What’s the current series score?
Toronto leads 3-2, but Ottawa has won the last two games.

What’s the Maple Leafs’ record in elimination games?
They’ve won just 1 of their last 14 opportunities to clinch a series.

How has Linus Ullmark performed?
After a rough start, Ullmark has allowed just three goals in his last two starts and recorded his first career playoff shutout in Game 5.

What happens if Ottawa wins Game 6?
Game 7 will be held Saturday in Toronto, giving the Senators a chance at a historic comeback.

Where can I find game-day picks and predictions?
Head to the NHL Picks section for expert insight and betting angles.