Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions March 5th 2025

Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs March 5th 2025

Betting on today’s Maple Leafs and Golden Knights game? Catch the action at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, as the Golden Knights hosts this showdown at 10:00 ET on TNT. The over/under goal line for this matchup is currently at 6 goals, and the Golden Knights are favored by -1.5 vs. the Maple Leafs.

Toronto vs. Vegas Key Information

• Teams: Maple Leafs at Golden Knights
• Where: T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas
• Date: Wednesday, March 5th
• Betting Odds VEG -134 | TOR +113 O/U 6

The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

Toronto’s latest game ended in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild, bringing their record to 38-21-3. The Maple Leafs were underdogs on the puck line and the total was set at 6 goals, but the combined score of 3 fell well short of that mark.

After the Wild scored first, William Nylander tied it up with a goal at 19:08 in the first period. The game remained tied until the Wild found the net again at 2:14 in overtime.

Toronto’s offense managed 28 shots on goal but only found the net once in a 2-1 overtime loss to Minnesota. William Nylander scored his 9th goal of the season, with Auston Matthews picking up his 6th assist and Mitchell Marner adding his 12th assist on Nylander’s power-play goal.

The Leafs’ lone goal came at 19:08 in the first period. Toronto struggled with giveaways, committing 10 in the game.

Toronto’s defense allowed the first goal at 9:41 in the first period and the game-winner 2:14 into overtime. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage, and the defense recorded 2 takeaways and 30 hits.

Through their last three games, the Maple Leafs have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, they have gone 0-3 and logged an over-under record of 1-2 in these games.

Through their last ten regular season contests, Toronto has a record of 8-2. In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.

The Golden Knights Can Win If…

Vegas improved to 36-18-6 with a 4-3 overtime win against Utah. The Golden Knights, favored by -1.5 goals, failed to cover the puck line. The total for the game was set at 6.5 goals, and the combined 7 goals exceeded that mark.

Utah took a 2-0 lead before Vegas responded with four different players finding the net. Brett Howden scored the game-winner 2:15 into overtime.

Vegas took 35 shots on goal and netted four in their latest game, with Brett Howden scoring his 6th goal of the season in overtime. William Karlsson added his 2nd goal of the year, while Noah Hanifin, who also picked up two assists, scored his 2nd goal. Pavel Dorofeyev kicked off the scoring for the Golden Knights, marking his 7th goal of the season.

After a scoreless first period, Vegas found the net twice in the second, including a goal from Hanifin at 19:59. The Golden Knights recorded 13 giveaways in the game.

Defensively, the Golden Knights will look to improve after allowing the first two goals and another late in the 3rd period. Adin Hill made 16 saves with a save percentage of 84.2%. The defense also contributed 10 takeaways and 22 hits.

Vegas will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the puck line and an over-under mark of 2-1.

Over their last ten regular season games, the Golden Knights have gone 5-5 straight up. Their record against the puck line in this stretch is 4-6 to go along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

When it comes to a moneyline wager, I’m going with the Golden Knights to defeat the Maple Leafs while playing at home. Given the current moneyline odds at -134, I’m placing a wager on the Golden Knights to win outright.

My recommended pick for the puck line is to take the Maple Leafs to cover. Even if the Golden Knights win straight-up, this one should be close throughout and the Maple Leafs should cover the puck line.

When considering the over/under line, which is currently at 6 goals, we believe that this game will go over that threshold, and we recommend wagering on the over.

Frequent-Flying Leafs Hit Vegas to Face Golden Knights

The Toronto Maple Leafs barely had time to unpack before hitting the road again, opening another three-game trip on Wednesday night against the Pacific Division-leading Vegas Golden Knights.

Leafs Look to Rebound After Blowing Lead vs. Sharks

Toronto (18-9-2 on the road) saw its five-game winning streak snapped on Monday with a 3-2 shootout loss to San Jose, a game in which the Leafs surrendered a 2-0 third-period lead.

The loss capped a quick turnaround for Toronto, which had just returned from a four-game road trip that included visits to Chicago, Boston, and the Rangers.

Despite the stumble, the Leafs have been excellent away from home, winning four straight road games before the loss to the Sharks.

Matthew Knies, who scored a power-play goal in the second period to give Toronto a 2-0 lead, admitted the team simply ran out of gas late.

“Obviously, it’s not ideal but we’re not going to make excuses for that kind of stuff,” Knies said. “We just got to be better and play a full 60 minutes. We didn’t do a good job of that today.”

Head coach Craig Berube wasn’t pleased with the collapse against a San Jose team with the worst record in the league.

“Well, it’s disappointing,” Berube said. “Two-nothing lead. We’re in a good spot to close it out, and we didn’t do the job. And then we get a chance in OT with the power play and couldn’t get it done.”

Toronto will need to quickly reset as it kicks off a tough road stretch that includes matchups against the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday and the Utah Hockey Club on Monday.

Knies summed up the team’s mindset heading into the trip.

“Just clean the suitcase and put it right back in,” he said. “I guess it’s been 10 hours at home, really. It’s fine. We had a good road trip, so we’re just going to replicate that and keep tallying on the wins there.”

Golden Knights Gaining Defensive Confidence

Vegas, which boasts the NHL’s second-best home record (22-6-3), is coming off a 2-0 shutout victory over New Jersey on Sunday.

Adin Hill stopped 25 shots for his third shutout of the season, while Mark Stone and Noah Hanifin scored power-play goals in the third period to seal the win.

Head coach Bruce Cassidy praised his team’s improved defensive effort, which came after back-to-back shaky performances in which Vegas surrendered four third-period goals in a 5-2 loss to Los Angeles, then allowed four more in a wild 7-5 win over Chicago.

“I thought defensively we were really dialed in,” Cassidy said after the win over New Jersey.

Head-to-Head: Leafs Won First Meeting Without Matthews

This is the second and final regular-season meeting between the teams.

Toronto won the first matchup 3-0 on Nov. 20, despite missing captain Auston Matthews due to injury. Joseph Woll recorded a 31-save shutout, and William Nylander contributed a goal and an assist.

That game also saw Knies exit early after a big open-ice hit from Vegas defenseman Zach Whitecloud.

Discover in-depth analysis and expert projections shaping the NHL Conference standings and betting markets

What’s at Stake?

• For Toronto: A chance to bounce back from the San Jose loss and continue its push toward a top playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.
• For Vegas: An opportunity to extend its Pacific Division lead while building on Sunday’s strong defensive performance.

With Toronto’s offensive firepower and Vegas’ dominant home record, expect a high-energy battle as the Leafs kick off their latest road trip in Sin City.