2025 Tour de France Odds, Predictions, and Yellow Jersey Winner

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On Saturday, July 5, the 112th edition of the Tour de France gets underway with the Grand Depart from Lille, France. Last year, the race finished in Nice due to the Olympic Games. This year, the Grand Tour will return to its traditional finish on the Champs-Elysees in Paris.

Tadej Pogacar enters the second Grand Tour of the year, as pre-race favorite. Cycling’s best rider is the defending yellow jersey winner after capturing his third Tour de France title last year.

His top rival, Jonas Vingegaard, aims to get back on top of the podium after a disappointing runner-up finish last year. Vingegaard was not in great form due to injuries. This year, the Danish cyclist is healthier and is looking for his third TDF crown in the last four years.

Last year’s third-place finisher, Remco Evenepoel, also returns with the goal of upstaging Pogacar and Vingegaard. Primoz Roglic is looking to bounce back from his injury shortened Giro d’Italia to take down his rival Pogacar and former teammate Vingegaard, as well.

Outside of those four General Classification riders, the rest of the peloton will be racing for the other classifications (jerseys), stage wins, and individual glory.

Let’s take a look at the latest Tour de France odds and make our 2025 Tour de France predictions for the yellow jersey, also known as the maillot jaune.

Tour de France Schedule

The 2025 Tour de France departs Lilie, France, on Saturday, July 5, and spans 22 days before concluding on the Champs-Elysees in Paris, France, on Sunday, July 27.

How Many Stages In The Tour de France?

Per tradition, the 2025 Tour de France will have 21 stages spanning a total of 23 days. Those stages break down as follows:

  • Seven flat stages
  • Six hilly stages
  • Six mountain stages (five summit finishes)
  • Two Time Trials

Additionally, there are two rest days. The first rest day does not take place until Tuesday, July 15, after 10 days of racing. The second rest day will be on Monday, July 21, after the second week of racing has concluded.

At the end of each stage, bonus seconds of 10, 6, and 4 will be awarded to the first, second and third riders to cross the line.

How Many Miles In The Tour de France?

This year’s 21-stage Tour de France, from Lilie to Paris, will travel a total distance of 3,338 km or 2,075 miles. That’s roughly 100 miles less than last year’s Tour. It’s also far below the all-time mark of 5,745 km (3,569.7 miles) in the 1926 Tour de France race. The 1919 edition saw the race span 5,560 km (3,454.8 miles).

What’s The Highest Point In The Tour de France?

With six mountain stages, and five summits, the peloton will see a total vertical gain of 52,500m throughout the entire Grand Tour. However, the highest point of this year’s three-week race will be the Col de la Loze (2,304m). The field will approach this climb from its eastern side, which marks the first time ever for a Tour de France race.

How To Watch The Tour de France?

In the United States, NBC holds the rights to broadcast or stream the Tour de France. Just like it has for the last several years, Peacock (NBC Sports) will stream the 2025 Tour de France.

Also, per recent tradition, FloBikes will broadcast the Tour de France in Canada, which requires an annual subscription. UK viewers can watch the race on ITV4, Eurosport and Discovery+.

What Does Tour de France GC Mean?

The term “GC” stands for General Classification and it represents the Yellow Jersey, which is more commonly referred to as the maillot jaune.  

The GC, or Yellow Jersey, represents the competition for the overall race winner. To win the Tour de France, a cyclist needs to accumulate the fastest time across all 21 stages.

The terms or verbiage of GC, general classification, yellow jersey, and maillot jaune are all interchangeable as we discuss the overall winner and leader below.

Tour de France Jerseys

The Tour de France features four primary jersey competitions in addition to smaller classifications for the Team and Most Aggressive Rider of a given stage.

The following is a breakdown of the Tour de France jersey competitions (classifications):

  • Yellow Jersey (General Classification): As mentioned above, the yellow jersey is the competition that decides who wins the overall Grand Tour race based on the fastest cumulative time for all 21 stages.
  • Green Jersey (Points Classification): Starting in 1953, the Points Classification is awarded to the cyclist with the most points after 21 stages. The leader of this Classification wears a green jersey. Riders can earn points based on high finishes for stages or winning intermediate sprints. The Green Jersey is also commonly referred to as the sprinter’s competition.
  • Polka dot Jersey (Mountains Classification): The Mountains Classification began in 1933, but it wasn’t until 1975, that the popular polka dot jersey was introduced. This classification is a competition for riders who gain the most points by being the first riders to reach mountain summits during stages and at finishing lines.
  • White Jersey (Young Rider Classification): The White Jersey represents the best young rider competition based on their overall time in the standings like the yellow jersey. However, this competition is for cyclists 25-years-old and younger.

Tour de France Odds

Check out the latest Tour de France odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Tour de France OddsTour de France Odds
Tadej Pogacar -275Jonas Vingegaard +225
Remco Evenepoel +1000Joao Almeida +1800
Primoz Roglic +2800Florian Lipowitz +3300
Matteo Jorgenson +5000Mattias Skjelmose +8000
Felix Gall +8000Simon Yates +10000

As you can see from the cycling odds above, Tadej Pogacar is a sizable betting favorite to win the 2025 Tour de France. Only Jonas Vingegaard is even remotely close to Pogacar in betting odds.

Last year’s third-place finisher, Evenepoel, is a distant third in the odds for this Grand Tour. He’s followed by Pogacar’s teammate Joao Almeida. Primoz Roglic, a perennial contender, rounds out the Top 5, but far below the rest of the favorites.

There are a few cyclists like Simon Yates who could be worthy of a small flier. However, the winner of this year’s Tour de France will come from one of the top three favorites, as they’re the elite contenders in this field.

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Tour de France Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 112th Tour de France:

Tadej Pogacar (-275)        

Tadej Pogacar has had a stellar season so far. In fact, he has made this year one of the more entertaining seasons in quite some time. Every race that Pogacar entered, you knew it was going to be thrilling as he chases history, while others are chasing him.

Pogacar started off by winning the UAE Tour in February. He followed that up with a victory in the Strade Bianche. Surprisingly, he finished third in the Milano-San Remo before winning the Tour of Flanders.

Two second-place finishes at Paris-Roubaix and Amstel Gold dotted his 2025 resume before Pogacar won La Fleche Wallone, Liege-Bastogn-Liege and the Criterium du Dauphine just a few weeks ago.

It has truly been a remarkable year for Pogacar, which only furthers to emphasize that he’s quite possibly the best cyclist since The Goat Eddie Merckx.

This will be Pogacar’s 6th appearance in the Tour de France. Currently, the Slovenian has three wins and two second-place finishes. He also has 17 stage victories.

We are truly witnessing one of the greatest of all time. And, he’s definitely the man to beat in France this month.

Jonas Vingegaard (+225)

If there’s one man that has any shot at upsetting the UAE Team Emirates captain, it’s Jonas Vingegaard. Let’s not forget, that in this era of dominance by Pogacar, Vingegaard has defeated him twice in the Tour de France: 2022, 2023.

And the other two years that the Danish rider appeared in the Grand Tour, he was second both times. So, like Pogacar, Vingegaard only knows a Top 2 finish, and it will most likely turn out that way again this year.

Vingegaard started off his season by winning Votla ao Algarve in February, before pulling out of Paris-Nice in March due to a crash. He didn’t return to action until the Criterium du Dauphine where he finished runner up, and was clearly the second-best rider behind Pogacar.

This marks the second straight year where Vingegaard came into the summer not at 100%, and trying to get back to full strength for the Tour de France. We saw last year how he was not at his best in the TDF, and it’s entirely possible that will happen again this year.

If he falters at all, Team Visma-Lease A Bike have two other capable GC contenders in Matteo Jorgenson and Simon Yates, which we will discuss in more detail below.

Remco Evenepoel (+1000)          

The Belgian cycling star Remco Evenepoel has also been working his way back from a crash late last year. He didn’t start his season until mid-April where he won De Brabantse Pijl. He followed that up with a third at the Amstel gold Race, 9th at La Fleche-Wallone and a 59th at Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Evenepoel then competed in his first stage race in early May, where he finished 5th at the Tour de Romandie and showed that he was still far away from being at full strength. From there, the 25-year-old finished 4th at the Criterium du Dauphine in June and won the Belgian National ITT last week.

Last year was his first ever appearance in the Tour de France and he finished third with one stage win and 10 Top 10s. It was a strong debut in the sport’s hardest and most popular event.

With two time trials, Evenepoel will have a great chance of remaining in contention for the top spot on the podium. However, it won’t be enough to prevent Pogacar and Vingegaard from passing him up in the high mountains.

Best Of The Rest

We examined the pre-race favorites, now let’s look at the best of the rest:

Joao Almeida (+1800) has had a strong season so far. He finished 2nd at the Volta al la Comunitat Valencia, 2nd at Volta ao Algarve and 6th at Paris-Nice.

He followed that up by winning the Tour of Basque Country in April, Tour de Romandie in May, and the Tour de Suisse in June.

Almeida will be the #2 rider on UAE Team Emirates and an incredible support for Pogacar. If Tadej falters or crashes and can’t lead the team, this squad is still very deep and very capable of winning the Tour de France with Almeida. He’s also a legit threat for the third spot in this race.

Almeida finished 4th last year, despite being the #2 rider for UAE and supporting Pogacar. So, Evenepoel’s spot as the third best rider is definitely in jeopardy.

Primoz Roglic (+2800) remains one of my favorites. He personifies class, professionalism and perseverance. The man has come very close to winning the Tour de France but seems to be snake-bitten when it comes to this race. He was 2nd in 2020, where Pogacar won it in the final weekend, and 4th in 2018. He has three straight DNFs due to crashes.

Roglic crashed out of the Giro this year, but is healed and ready for the Tour. Let’s not forget that he won Volta Catalunya this season and has four Grand Tour titles on his resume: 3 Vueltas, 1 Giro.

Florian Lipowitz (+3300) has been a revelation for Borah this year. He finished 2nd at Paris-Nice, 4th in the Tour of Basque Country, and third at the Criterium du Dauphine. And, the 24-year-old did that against the top GC riders of the sport.

He’s the perfect lieutenant for Roglic in the Tour de France, and more than capable of leading the squad if Roglic is forced to abandon the race. This will be Lipowitz’s first ever Tour appearance, and I expect the team to play it coy with his efforts.

Roglic will be the captain, but Lipowitz could be the wild card for this team and the entire Grand Tour.

Matteo Jorgenson (+5000) will ride in support of Vingegaard like he has over the last few years. However, the American is very capable of a podium finish if he were to ride for himself. Jorgenson won Paris-Nice this year, was 4th in Dwars door Vlaanderen, and finished 6th in the Criterium du Dauphine.

Last year, Jorgenson finished 8th in the Tour, after giving Vingegaard his support. There’s no reason to think that the American cyclists can’t score another Top 10 this year.

Mattias Skjelmose (+8000) is another cycling revelation this year. The 24-year-old has quickly become a star in his country of Denmark, and a strong rider amongst the peloton.

He was on his way to a strong result before a DNF knocked him out of Paris-Nice. But Skjelmose bounced back with a 5th at the Tour of Basque Country and winning the Amstel Gold Race as he shocked the field.

Skjelmose will be the leader on Lidl-Trek and their lone hope at finishing high in the General Classification. Otherwise, you will see this squad working for Jonathan Milan in the Green Jersey battle and potentially witness some of this team trying to win in breakaways.

Simon Yates (+10000) is coming off an impressive victory in the Giro d’Italia as he had an incredible performance in the high mountains on the final days, to take the victory.

This is Yates’ first season with Team Visma, and that Grand Tour victory already makes it a successful one. However, he’s joining the squad for the Tour de France to help Vingegaard in the mountains and as an extra insurance policy should anything happen.

Yates is the only rider with odds this high, or larger, that I would even consider a small flier on. Perhaps, even a small flier on a Top 10 finish as he showed in Italy that his form is on point.

Tour de France Predictions

The reality is that there is only one man who can upset Pogacar in France this summer, and it’s Jonas Vingegaard. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening.

Pogacar is riding at a level that not even Vingegaard can keep up with in the mountains. The only way that Vingegaard, Evenepoel or any other cyclists has a real chance, is if Pogacar cracks in the mountains or crashes during the race and is taken out on a stretcher.

I’m very excited for the Tour de France, Phil Liggett’s commentary, and Pogacar’s quest for cycling immortality.

There are better opportunities for Tour de France betting with the other Classifications/Jersey battles.  

Bet: Tadej Pogacar (-275)

Tour de France Winners

The following is a list of the most recent Tour de France winners:

YearWinnerTeam
2024Tadej PogacarUAE Team Emirates
2023Jonas VingegaardTeam Jumbo-Visma
2022Jonas VingegaardTeam Jumbo-Visma
2021Tadej PogacarUAE Team Emirates
2020:Tadej PogacarUAE Team Emirates
2019:Egan BernalTeam Ineos
2018:Geraint ThomasTeam Sky
2017Chris FroomeTeam Sky
2016Chris FroomeTeam Sky
2015Chris FroomeTeam Sky