The market gives the United States a 4.6% chance of confirming that aliens exist before 2027. That is the last price on Kalshi’s “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” contract, 4.6 cents, read on September 25, 2026, and the equivalent of about +2074 in sportsbook odds.
The longer contracts price it higher: 13 cents for a confirmation before 2028 and 18 cents before January 20, 2029. Kalshi’s shorter-dated versions of the same question, for before August 1 and before September 1, 2026, both settled “no”.
Aliens odds on Kalshi
| Question | Closes | Last price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. confirms aliens exist before October 1, 2026 | October 1, 2026 | 1 cent | 1% |
| U.S. confirms aliens exist before November 1, 2026 | November 1, 2026 | 2 cents | 2% |
| U.S. confirms aliens exist before December 1, 2026 | December 1, 2026 | 2 cents | 2% |
| U.S. confirms aliens exist before 2027 | January 1, 2027 | 4.6 cents | 4.6% |
| U.S. confirms aliens exist before 2028 | January 1, 2028 | 13 cents | 13% |
| U.S. confirms aliens exist before January 20, 2029 | January 20, 2029 | 18 cents | 18% |
Kalshi is an exchange where a contract pays $1 if the event happens, so the price in cents is the implied chance. The before-2027 contract is the busiest of the six, with a traded volume of more than 28 million contracts.
The UFO files markets
Kalshi also ran markets on whether the president would release new UFO files by a set date, and several of them settled “yes”. Contracts covering dates from August 10 to August 31, 2026, closed as “yes” on August 7, and the ones for September 25 and October 2 closed as “yes” on September 18.
A separate market on whether the president would issue an executive action on declassifying records about unidentified phenomena before August 1, 2026, settled “no”. A release of files is not the same thing as a confirmation: after both “yes” settlements, the before-2027 aliens contract is at 4.6 cents.
The old landmark and celebrity props
This page used to list sportsbook props on which landmark or celebrity would be revealed as alien, set to settle by the end of 2025. Those props are past their date, and we have no current sportsbook market on them to quote.
The prices on those boards ran from +3000 for the Great Pyramid of Giza to +20000 for several celebrities. At +3000 the implied chance was 3.2%, and at +20000 it was 0.5%.
Betting on it
A novelty contract is a bet like any other: at 4.6 cents you are paying for a 4.6% chance, and it is worth buying only when you rate the chance higher than that. The markets on the 2028 election are on our presidential election odds page, and other entertainment markets are on our Squid Game odds and the entertainment blog. Our sportsbook reviews cover the books we have tested.