J.D. Vance leads the betting on who wins the next presidential election: 19 to 20 cents on Kalshi and 18.5 to 19.1 cents on Polymarket on Sunday, November 1, 2026, about a one-in-five chance. The Democrats are favored to take the White House, at 61 to 62 cents on Kalshi’s party contracts against 40 to 41 for the Republicans.
The election is on Tuesday, November 7, 2028, the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, as federal law sets it. The midterm elections of Tuesday, November 3, 2026, come first, and every price on this page was read on November 1, before a midterm vote was counted.
Who will win the presidency: the market
Both exchanges were read at 16:20 UTC on November 1 (11:20 a.m. Eastern). A contract pays $1 if its candidate wins, so a price in cents reads as a percentage chance. The table gives the best bid and the best ask, what a buyer can sell at and buy at.
| Candidate | Kalshi (bid / ask) | Polymarket (bid / ask) |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 19 / 20 cents | 18.5 / 19.1 cents |
| Gavin Newsom | 13 / 14 cents | 11.9 / 12.1 cents |
| Marco Rubio | 11 / 12 cents | 9.5 / 9.7 cents |
| Jon Ossoff | 11 / 12 cents | 9.7 / 10 cents |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.9 / 10 cents | 12.5 / 12.8 cents |
| Kamala Harris | 3.3 / 3.6 cents | 4.0 / 4.1 cents |
| James Talarico | 3.0 / 4.0 cents | 1.7 / 1.9 cents |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.7 / 2.9 cents | 2.3 / 2.8 cents |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.7 / 2.8 cents | 2.4 / 2.5 cents |
The two exchanges agree on Vance and disagree on the order behind him. Polymarket has Ocasio-Cortez second at 12.5 to 12.8 cents, while Kalshi has her fifth at 9.9 to 10. Newsom is second on Kalshi at 13 to 14 cents. Polymarket’s winner market had traded $724 million across all its names by our read.
The two settle differently. Kalshi’s contract pays on the person inaugurated for the term that begins in 2029. Polymarket’s pays once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, and on the inauguration if they have not by January 20, 2029.
Which party wins the White House
| Party | Kalshi (bid / ask) | Polymarket (bid / ask) |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 61 / 62 cents | 65 / 66 cents |
| Republican | 40 / 41 cents | 34 / 35 cents |
Both exchanges make the Democrats favorites, Polymarket by more. On September 25 this page had Kalshi’s party contracts at 59 cents for the Democrats and 41 for the Republicans, so the Democratic price is 2 to 3 cents higher five weeks on. Polymarket’s party market is small next to its winner market: $2.5 million traded by our read.
Kalshi’s party contracts settle on the party of the president inaugurated on January 20, 2029. Polymarket’s settle on the same three media calls as its winner market.
Republican nominee odds
| Candidate | Kalshi (bid / ask) | Polymarket (bid / ask) |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 35 / 36 cents | 38 / 38.4 cents |
| Marco Rubio | 20 / 21 cents | 20.1 / 20.6 cents |
| Ron DeSantis | 4.7 / 4.8 cents | 3.7 / 4.0 cents |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3.5 / 3.6 cents | 1.6 / 1.8 cents |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.6 / 2.9 cents | 3.0 / 3.1 cents |
| Brian Kemp | 2.4 / 2.5 cents | 0.7 / 0.8 cents |
| Ted Cruz | 2.3 / 2.4 cents | 2.5 / 2.6 cents |
| Donald Trump | 1.7 / 1.8 cents | 1.6 / 1.7 cents |
Vance is the favorite for the nomination on both exchanges, with Rubio a clear second at about 20 cents. Vance’s price has come down. This page had him at 45 cents on Kalshi on September 25, and he was at 35 to 36 cents on November 1.
Donald Trump is listed in both nominee markets at under 2 cents, and at 2.5 to 2.6 cents on Kalshi to win the presidency. The 22nd Amendment says no person shall be elected president more than twice, and our Donald Trump odds page sets out what a third term would take.
Democratic nominee odds
| Candidate | Kalshi (bid / ask) | Polymarket (bid / ask) |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 15 / 16 cents | 15.8 / 16.6 cents |
| Jon Ossoff | 14 / 15 cents | 14.8 / 15.4 cents |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13 / 14 cents | 15.9 / 16.3 cents |
| Kamala Harris | 6.3 / 6.4 cents | 5.7 / 5.8 cents |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.8 / 4.9 cents | 5.0 / 5.1 cents |
| Pete Buttigieg | 4.6 / 4.7 cents | 4.9 / 5.1 cents |
| Andy Beshear | 4.2 / 4.4 cents | 3.5 / 3.6 cents |
| James Talarico | 3.9 / 4.0 cents | 2.5 / 2.6 cents |
The Democratic race has no favorite. Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff all trade between 13 and 16.6 cents, and nobody else is above 6.4. On September 25 this page had Ossoff on top at 17 cents on Kalshi; on November 1 Newsom led there at 15 to 16.
Polymarket’s Democratic nominee market is the biggest of the four we read, at $1.3 billion traded across all names, against $720 million for the Republican nominee.
How to read presidential odds
A price of 20 cents is the same bet as +400 at a sportsbook: $20 buys 100 contracts that return $100 if Vance wins, $80 of it profit before fees. A contract is worth buying only when you rate the chance higher than the ask. At 20 cents, Vance has to win more than one time in five for the bet to pay over time, and the money is tied up until November 2028 or later.
No US sportsbook price on the 2028 election was read for this page. Our election betting guide and political betting guide explain how these markets work. The Senate odds and California governor odds pages cover Tuesday’s races, and our sportsbook reviews compare books.