Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, is the clear favorite over Steve Hilton, a Republican, in California’s governor race on Tuesday, November 3: 98.5 cents on the dollar for a Becerra win at Polymarket and 97.4 cents at Kalshi on Sunday morning, November 1, and a 61% to 37% lead among likely voters in the Public Policy Institute of California’s October survey.
Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time (11 p.m. Eastern) on Tuesday. Counties start reporting results at 8 p.m. and keep sending totals to the Secretary of State at least every two hours until the election-night count is done. Counties then have until December 3 to certify, so Tuesday night’s totals are not the final count.
California governor odds on November 1
No sportsbook price on this race was read for this page. The two prediction markets below were read at 15:22 and 15:23 UTC on November 1 (10:22 and 10:23 a.m. Eastern). A contract pays $1 if the candidate wins, so a price of 98.5 cents means the market gives that candidate about a 98.5% chance.
| Market | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (bid / ask) | 98.4 / 98.6 cents | 1.4 / 1.5 cents |
| Kalshi (bid / ask) | 97.3 / 97.4 cents | 2.6 / 2.8 cents |
| Kalshi last trade | 97.4 cents | 2.9 cents |
Polymarket’s winner market had traded $43.8 million across all its names by that read. It settles once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, and on the official certification if they have not. Kalshi’s settlement rules were not read for this page, so check them on the contract before you trade it.
What the polls say
PPIC interviewed Californians from October 16 to 22. Among its 1,086 likely voters, Becerra led Hilton 61% to 37%, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points. The lead has barely moved since summer: 60% to 38% in PPIC’s September survey and 61% to 36% in July.
The same survey had 92% of Democrats for Becerra and 89% of Republicans for Hilton. Independent likely voters split 54% Becerra, 41% Hilton. Sixty percent of likely voters said they were satisfied with their choice of candidates, against 39% who were not.
Registration leans the same way. The Secretary of State’s 15-day report counted 23,273,590 registered voters on October 19: 44.96% Democratic, 24.69% Republican and 23.02% with no party preference.
How the June primary finished
California’s primary puts every candidate on one ballot and sends the top two to November, whatever their party. Becerra finished first on June 2 and Hilton second, and they are the only two names for governor on the Secretary of State’s certified list of candidates, dated August 27.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | Democratic | 2,591,857 | 28.0% |
| Steve Hilton | Republican | 2,277,318 | 24.6% |
| Tom Steyer | Democratic | 2,110,707 | 22.8% |
| Chad Bianco | Republican | 941,708 | 10.2% |
| Katie Porter | Democratic | 403,908 | 4.4% |
| Matt Mahan | Democratic | 327,537 | 3.5% |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | Democratic | 104,107 | 1.1% |
Hilton held off Steyer for second place by 166,611 votes. Had Steyer passed him, November would have been two Democrats.
When results come in, and where
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific on November 3, and 8 p.m. is also the last moment to vote in person or drop off a ballot. By Friday, October 30, 5,545,910 ballots had already been cast, 23.65% of the 23,451,053 voters sent a mail ballot, by the Secretary of State’s ballot return count.
Results appear on the Secretary of State’s general election page and on each county’s elections site from 8 p.m. Pacific. The early totals are not final: a mailed ballot counts if it is postmarked by November 3 and reaches its county by November 10, so the margin moves for days after Tuesday night.
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| Nov. 3 | Election Day, polls open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; counties report from 8 p.m., at least every two hours until the night’s count is done |
| Nov. 10 | Last day for mailed ballots, postmarked by Election Day, to arrive |
| Dec. 3 | Last day for counties to certify their results |
| Dec. 11 | The Secretary of State certifies the statement of vote and issues certificates of election |
The certified winner is the one on the statement of vote of December 11. A bet or a contract settles by its own rule, which can be a media call well before that date, so read the rule before the result.
How to read election odds
A political price works like any two-way bet. A favorite at -400 implies 80.0% and an underdog at +300 implies 25.0%, and the amount by which the two add to more than 100% is the book’s margin. A bet is worth making only when you rate a candidate’s chance higher than the price does. At 98.5 cents, a Becerra contract returns 1.5 cents on every 98.5 staked.
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