Donald Trump’s second term runs to January 20, 2029, and the next federal election is the midterm in November 2026. No current price on any Trump prop is quoted here, because none is posted in a source we can name and date.
Trump props come and go with the news, but most of them ask one of a few questions: will he finish the term, will he be impeached again, what happens in the midterms, and what happens with the talk of a third term. This page sets out what is already on the record for each, so you can judge a price when you see one.
Latest Trump Odds
See Today’s Top Political Props
Will Trump finish the term?
The term ends at noon on January 20, 2029, under the 20th Amendment. A prop on whether he serves it out is a bet on whether anything interrupts that date: removal, resignation or death in office.
For a price like this, the implied chance is the whole story. At -1000 the book is giving about 90.9%; at -2000 it is 95.2%. A bettor who takes the short side is paying $1,000 or $2,000 to win $100.
Will Trump be impeached again?
The House of Representatives has impeached Trump twice, and the Senate acquitted him both times, according to the House’s own list of impeachments.
| Impeached | Charges | Senate trial | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 18, 2019 | Abuse of power and obstruction of Congress | January 16 to February 5, 2020 | Acquitted |
| January 13, 2021 | Incitement of insurrection | February 9 to 13, 2021 | Acquitted |
Impeachment is a House vote, and removal needs a two-thirds Senate vote. That makes any impeachment prop a bet on who controls the House, which is why the next one to watch is tied to November 2026.
The 2026 midterms
The next midterm elections are in November 2026, halfway through the term, per USAGov. Every House seat is on the ballot, so the result matters for any impeachment prop that runs into the term’s last two years.
Midterm props usually ask which party wins the House or the Senate, or by how many seats. Treat them like any two-sided market: add the two implied chances, and the amount over 100% is the book’s margin.
Third-term talk
The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice. A prop on whether that limit is repealed is a bet on a constitutional amendment, which by the usual route needs two-thirds of both houses of Congress and ratification by three-quarters of the states, 38 of 50.
Props on whether Trump keeps talking about a third term are a different bet from props on whether the rule changes. The first can settle on a speech; the second needs Congress and 38 legislatures, and the two should never be priced the same.
Reading any Trump price
A plus price shows what $100 wins, and 100 divided by the price plus 100 is the implied chance: +400 is 20.0%, +1000 is 9.1%. A minus price shows what you stake to win $100, and the price divided by the price plus 100 is the chance: -300 is 75.0%. A political prop is worth betting only when you rate the chance higher than the price does, and only after you have read how and when it settles.
Our political betting guide covers the markets in more depth, and our guides to what a prop bet is and how betting odds work cover the arithmetic. Another non-sports market is on our Menendez brothers odds page, and to compare books, start with our sportsbook reviews.