Political betting is betting on the outcome of an election or another political event, priced in the same odds as a sports bet: who wins, by how much, and which party controls a chamber. The 2026 midterms were held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and the states count and certify the results in the weeks after Election Day. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, per USA.gov.
The election calendar
Federal law sets Election Day as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Congress is elected every even-numbered year. The president is elected every fourth year, on the same Tuesday.
| Election | Date | What is decided |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 midterms (held) | November 3, 2026 | All 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate |
| 2028 presidential | November 7, 2028 | President and Vice President, all 435 House seats, one-third of the Senate |
All 435 House seats are up every two years, and one-third of the Senate, per USA.gov.
How political betting odds work
Election odds read like any moneyline. Take a made-up two-candidate market:
- Candidate A at -150: risk $150 to win $100. The price implies a 60.0% chance.
- Candidate B at +130: risk $100 to win $130. The price implies a 43.5% chance.
The two chances add up to 103.5%. The extra 3.5 points are the book’s margin. For the conversion on any price, see how betting odds work.
A price is worth taking only when you rate that side’s chance higher than the price implies. At -150, that means above 60.0%.
Comparing books changes the threshold. Candidate B at +130 needs a 43.5% chance to break even; the same candidate at +150 elsewhere needs 40.0%. The same view of the race can be a bet at one book and a pass at another.
Types of political bets
Election markets come in five main shapes:
- Outright winner: who wins the presidency, a governorship or a seat.
- Party control: which party holds the House or the Senate after the election. A House majority is 218 of 435 seats.
- Electoral votes: the winner’s electoral vote count, or a band of it. There are 538, and 270 wins. The 2024 winner had 312.
- State markets: which candidate or party carries a given state.
- Margin and props: popular vote margin, turnout, and events such as nominations.
A party control market settles on the whole map. In a midterm year that map is all 435 House seats and the one-third of the Senate on the ballot.
How an election bet is settled
Each book states whether a market settles on the election-night projection, a media call or the certified result. Certification of a close race can take weeks, and the money stays tied up until then. Read the house rules before the bet.
The 2024 timeline shows the length of the wait. Election Day was November 5, 2024. The electors were appointed by December 11, 2024, per the National Archives.
State markets need extra care in Maine and Nebraska, which split their electoral votes. In 2024, Maine’s 4 votes went 3 to Harris and 1 to Trump. Nebraska’s 5 went 4 to Trump and 1 to Harris, per the National Archives.
Whether you can bet on elections depends on where you live and on the book’s own rules. Timing matters too. A 2028 presidential price taken now is two years from its result on November 7, 2028, and it will move with every primary and debate between now and then.
Reading the numbers
The last result is the starting point. In 2024 Donald Trump won 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 226, per the National Archives.
The state totals show where those numbers came from. Trump’s 312 included Texas (40) and Wisconsin (10). Harris’s 226 included Virginia (13) and Washington (12).
For the next step, read our election betting guide and the presidential election odds. The same arithmetic that turns -150 into a 60.0% chance runs through all our betting guides.