Week 16 not only brings us closer to Christmas, but it also gets fans and NFL bettors closer to the biggest sports betting event of the year – the 2026 Super Bowl.

Surprisingly, there are several duds scheduled for this week. For example, the Buffalo Bills are a double-digit favorite over the Cleveland Browns. We also have the Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans as a laughable matchup. Neither of these games will factor into our NFL underdog picks this week.

Instead, we’re diving into the pool of competitive matchups as all four of our games are going to be hotly contested matchups with NFL Playoff implications on the line.

The Los Angeles Chargers (+2) and New England Patriots (+3) are on the road against teams desperately hanging on to their Playoff hopes. The Indianapolis Colts (+6) and Chicago Bears (+1) are hosting two teams jockeying for Playoff position in what could dramatically affect their own postseason berths.

In Week 15, we fell to 2-2 after nearly going 4-0 in Week 14, if it weren’t for a half point. The Dolphins and Lions doomed us last week, while the Chargers and Broncos made us look smart. In fact, our top upset of the week was Denver at home over Green Bay. We called the outright win and laughed as we took the points, as well.

With that said, we’re high on our NFL picks for Week 16 and feel that these selections have lines that the sportsbooks missed the mark on. And, that’s where we swoop in and try to maximize the perceived betting value.

So, without further delay, let’s dive over the top of this pile, cross the goal line, and make some winning NFL underdog picks.

NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks

Team	Spread	Moneyline
Los Angeles Chargers	+2	+115
New England Patriots	+3	+135
Indianapolis Colts	+6	+230
Chicago Bears	+1	-105

Over the last seven weeks, we’ve gone 19-9 with our Underdog picks: Week 9 (3-1), Week 10 (4-0), Week 11 (2-2), Week 12 (2-2), and Week 13 (3-1), Week 14 (3-1), and Week 15 (2-2). So, even though we didn’t hit our four-leg Underdog parlay card last week, we’re still nailing these dogs at an impressive clip as the regular season quickly wraps up.

This week, all of our underdog NFL teams have appealing spreads that we’re targeting. Additionally, all four teams are fighting for their Playoff lives. Two of these Underdogs (Chargers and Patriots) are playing on the road with heavy postseason implications on the line. Two home dogs (Colts and Bears) are also fighting for the postseason, with Chicago targeting the no.1 seed in the NFC.   

Of course, I am just one voice here at Scores and Stats. We have a bunch of terrific NFL betting experts, as well as elite offerings. You can test it all out for free via our sports handicapping service.

NFL Underdog Picks For Week 16

Check out our best NFL underdogs this week:

Los Angeles Chargers +2 (-110) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Don’t look now, but the Los Angeles Chargers are on a roll. They’ve won three games in a row and four of their last five contests. They also got back their dynamic, rookie running back (Hampton) who gives this team a powerful rushing attack along with Vidal.

The defense is also stepping up and playing solid football. In fact, over those four wins, LA allowed only 14 ppg. That loss was a bad one, but the Chargers have bounced back from that and defeated the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs since then.

The Cowboys have dropped two games in a row after, surprisingly, beating the same three teams that the Chargers did: Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs. Their last victory was on Thanksgiving against the Chiefs.

Dallas is a trainwreck defensively, despite their high-powered offense. This week’s matchup favors LA as Dallas’ defense won’t be able to stop Herbert and company. They just gave up 34 points to the Vikings on SNF. That bodes well for the Chargers who are a better overall team from the coach on down.

LA is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS this season when listed as the Underdog. Dallas is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS as a Home Favorite. Dallas is 2-7 ATS in their last nine December games.

Where I like the Chargers the most this weekend, is in their passing attack. LA averages 214.5 ypg through the air, but the Cowboys give up the most passing yards per game at 254.8 ypg. Additionally, Dallas ranks near the bottom of the league in sack rate and turnovers.

Then, add in the fact that the Chargers have the no.3 pass defense along with the no.4 sack rate with their pass rush, and this LA squad is looking primed for a big road victory that will eliminate the Cowboys from the Playoffs.

New England Patriots +3 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The New England Patriots stumble into Baltimore having their 10-game winning streak snapped by the Bills in dramatic fashion last weekend. The Ravens are coming off a 24-0 thrashing of the Bengals, which snapped a two-game winning streak.

New England is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS following a loss on the season. They’re also a perfect 6-0 SU on the road along with going 3-0 SU as the Away Underdog.

Furthermore, the Patriots are 3-0 ATS as the Away dog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, and 6-3 ATS in their last nine Sunday matchups. The Ravens are an abysmal 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games along with going 1-4 ATS in their last five overall contests and 2-6 ATS in their last eight AFC games.

There are two in-game matchups that I think will impact the outcome of this game. The first is New England’s passing attack that ranks no.6 in the NFL at 241.8 ypg.

Drake Maye is an MVP contender this season with his stellar work so far. The Ravens give up the 7^th most passing yards at 233.3 ypg. I expect Maye and company to find success through the air in this matchup.

The other matchup that favors the Patriots is their run defense that ranks no.5 (95.1 ypg) taking on Baltimore’s no.3 rushing attack (146.2 ypg). I see New England limiting this ground game especially after getting trounced by Buffalo last week.

While the Ravens may still win this matchup, I don’t see it being by more than 3 points. I would love for this spread to hit +3.5 in favor of New England but that might be asking for too much. Either way, take the Pats to cover on the road.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts +6 (-110)

This is a huge Monday Night Football game for both teams and the Playoff standings in each conference. For the visiting San Francisco 49ers, they’re a game back of both the Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West. Both teams are playing against each other TNF this week.

The 49ers have won four games in a row since an ugly loss in Week 10 against the Rams. Over that stretch, they have beaten some bad teams like the Cardinals, Browns and Titans.

San Francisco has split with the Rams this season and already defeated Seattle who they play in the final week of the year. So, if Seattle can win on TNF over the Rams, and the 49ers win out, then San Francisco will capture the NFC West and fight for the no.1 seed in the NFC.

The Indianapolis Colts are relying on 44-year-old Philip Rivers to keep their postseason hopes alive. He almost pulled off a miracle win in Seattle last week, but the Colts fell 18-16. Yet., Rivers looked solid as an elder QB playing an NFL game for the first time in five seasons.

With that said, I think this game is going to be a lot closer than six points. The Colts are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the 49ers. Furthermore, Indy is 6-3 SU in their last nine home games against San Francisco. Indy is also 3-1-1 ATS as the Underdog this season.

I really like Indy’s ground game in this one. Look for the no.6 rushing attack to find success in this MNF matchup against the 49ers who have had games where they gave up big chunks on the ground like in their losses to the Rams (126 yards) and the Texans (157 yards).

Last week, Jonathan Taylor still finished with 87 rushing yards despite Rivers playing QB for the first time and Seattle knowing that Indy would run the ball more. I see Taylor flirting with 100 yards and at least one score in this matchup.

Indy has given up the second most passing yards on the season. So, if they don’t slow down Brock Purdy and company, then this game could get away from them.

The 49ers have the lowest sack rate in the NFL. This bodes well for Rivers who should have more time to throw the ball against a defense that allows 227.6 passing ypg.

Look for the Colts to make this a physical game where they keep it close and cover the spread.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears +1 (-105)

Keep in mind, this week’s edition of the oldest rivalry in the NFL will take place on Saturday. And, it will be in Chicago where I think the Bears will avenge their loss to Green Bay a few weeks ago.

Let’s start with the fact that Micah Parson will not play due to a torn ACL. Additionally, WR Christian Watson could also miss this matchup with a chest injury. That’s two explosive players that impacted the first matchup between these two teams.

Looking at seasonal trends, we see that the Packers are 1-1-1 SU after a loss and the Bears are 7-2 SU after a win. Green Bay was defeated in Denver last weekend, while the Broncos destroyed Cleveland by four touchdowns.

Furthermore, the Packers are 0-3 ATS following a loss, while the Bears are 6-3 ATS following a win. Additionally, Green Bay is just 2-5 ATS on the road this season, while Chicago is 4-2 ATS as the home team.

Without Parsons, this Green Bay team will have trouble getting after the QB and dominating in the trenches. Chicago’s no.2 rushing attack is going to find success in this matchup. I also like Caleb Williams to lead this passing offense beyond their season average of 217.2 ypg.

Keep in mind, the Packers scored with 3:32 left in the game to go up 28-21. They were able to stop Chicago from going down and scoring a game-tying touchdown in the final moments of this contest.

I don’t see that happening this week. Look for the Bears to pull away late in this matchup and cement themselves at the top of the NFC North along with a chance to claim the no.1 seed in the NFC.

NFL Underdog Parlay

• Los Angeles Chargers +2 (-110)
• New England Patriots +3 (-115)
• Indianapolis Colts +6 (-110)
• Chicago Bears +1 (-105)

The Chargers and Patriots are the better teams on paper and the field in regards to their respective matchups. They’re more balanced on both sides of the ball and have strengths that will exploit their opponents’ weaknesses to cover and win.

The Colts will make it a physical, ugly game that should give them the advantage since they’re better than the 49ers in the trenches. I like Indy to cover. I also like Chicago to win at home against an injured Packers team that needs time to heal and get back to its winning ways. That’s not going to happen this weekend.

Underdog parlays are risky bets, but this one has some real juice that we think has a serious shot at hitting. If you lay $100 on this four-leg parlay at the top online betting sites, then you would win $1230. That’s a 12x on your initial investment.

I don’t know about you, but a small flier on this four-leg parlay seems like a great addition to your Week 16 NFL card. Also, if you want more exciting parlay action, then check out our best NFL parlays of the week and our best College Football parlays for Week 16.

Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 16

Our favorite Underdog pick for Week 16 is the Los Angeles Chargers. Last week, we rode the Broncos in this section and they came up big for us. Two weeks ago, we were all over Houston covering against the Chiefs. Now, we think the Chargers will strike down Dallas with their lightning bolt offense and thunderous defense.

The Cowboys’ defense is a massive liability. They give up the most passing yards, which means that Justin Herbert is going to feast on Dallas and lead this team to its 11^th win of the season as they try to keep pace with Denver for the AFC West title and lock down a Wild Card spot.