Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions April 16th 2025

Mavericks Limp In, Kings Surge Ahead in West Play-In Clash

After a chaotic regular season, the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings will collide in a win-or-go-home Western Conference play-in matchup on Wednesday night. While the Kings come in with momentum and a balanced core, the Mavericks limp into the postseason with injuries, inconsistency, and the weight of a season defined by adversity.

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Kings Catch Fire, Mavericks Cling to Hope

The Kings (40-42) enter as the No. 9 seed and will host the do-or-die contest in Sacramento’s notoriously rowdy Golden 1 Center. Interim coach Doug Christie’s squad has won four of its last six games, including a dominant 122-98 win over Dallas on March 3 — a game that not only sealed a season sweep but also saw Kyrie Irving suffer a season-ending ACL tear.

“We’re two wins away from getting to the next step of our journey,” Christie said.

Sacramento’s midseason trades raised eyebrows, most notably the move that sent De’Aaron Fox to San Antonio in a three-team deal that brought Zach LaVine to the Kings. With LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento now boasts a potent trio that’s gelling at the right time.

“I feel like we are playing our best basketball over the past six or seven games,” Sabonis said. “We have to use that momentum into the play-in.”

Add in veteran Jonas Valanciunas — the NBA’s all-time leader in play-in rebounds — and the Kings have playoff-tested grit to back up their recent surge.

Dallas Battles Injuries and Uncertainty

For Dallas (39-43), this play-in berth feels more like a lifeline than a launching pad. After trading Luka Doncic to the Lakers in the offseason and acquiring Anthony Davis in return, the Mavericks endured a season defined by injury setbacks and roster instability.

Davis played in just nine games due to lingering injuries, and the team never found a consistent rhythm. A 1-9 stretch midseason derailed their momentum, and a 1-4 finish nearly kept them out of the play-in entirely — but Phoenix’s collapse opened the door.

“It’s just a series of obstacles and adversities we dealt with,” said big man Daniel Gafford. “A lot of mental frustrations, but we kept showing up.”

Veteran Klay Thompson will look to redeem himself after a scoreless outing in his last play-in appearance — ironically against these very Kings while still with Golden State. The four-time champion knows what’s at stake.

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“Give it your undivided attention and ultimate effort and live with the results,” Thompson said.

Max Christie added perspective on the challenge ahead: “That place is really hard to win in a playoff atmosphere, so we’re looking forward to that challenge.”

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Experience vs. Momentum in a Must-Win Battle

The Kings swept Dallas in the regular season and now have home court, continuity, and a roster built for playoff-style basketball. The Mavericks, battered and patchwork, must find another gear — or see their season end abruptly.