Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Picks and Predictions April 30th 2025

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors April 30th 2025

At 7:30 ET, the Rockets (-184) will host the Warriors (+154) in a Western Conference matchup. Houston is favored by 4.5 points and the over/under line is 203.5.

This game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston and can be seen on TNT. The Rockets (52-30) are currently 2nd in the Western Conference, while the Warriors (48-34) are 7th. Golden State is on a two-game win streak, while Houston has lost two straight.

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Warriors vs. Rockets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
• Where: Houston at Toyota Center
• Date: Wednesday, April 30th
• Betting Odds HOU -4.5, GS +154 | HOU -184 O/U 203.5

The Warriors Can Win If…

The Warriors improved to 48-34 with a 109-106 win over the Rockets on Monday. Golden State was favored by 3.5 points but didn’t cover the spread, winning by just three. The combined score of 215 points went over the pre-game total of 203.5 by 11.5 points.

Golden State started strong with a 13-0 run, taking the score from 3-2 to 16-2. However, the Rockets responded in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Warriors 31-22. Golden State bounced back in the 3rd, winning the quarter 32-23, and edged out the Rockets 27-26 in the 4th to seal the win.

Jimmy Butler III led the Warriors to a win over the Rockets with 27 points and 6 assists, shooting 58.3% from the field. Brandin Podziemski added 26 points, hitting 6 threes at a 54.5% rate, while Stephen Curry contributed 17 points, though he struggled from deep, making just 2 threes at 25%.

Golden State connected on 17 threes, shooting 37% from beyond the arc and 41.9% overall. Butler scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, while Buddy Hield added 10 of his 15 points in the 3rd.

Despite allowing the Rockets to shoot 49% from the field, the Warriors held them to 106 points in Monday’s win. Golden State’s defense gave up 26 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, and they had their best defensive effort in the 3rd, allowing just 23 points.

The Warriors struggled to defend the three, with Houston hitting 11 threes at a 47% clip. However, they sent the Rockets to the line 31 times, where Houston made just 19 free throws. Golden State also recorded 7 steals and 2 blocks in the game.

• Golden State has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 109 points per game while allowing 98. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Warriors have a straight up record of 5-5. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.
• Over their last three games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

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The Rockets Can Win If…

The Rockets fell to 52-30 on the season after a 109-106 road loss to the Warriors on Monday. Houston entered the game as +3.5 point underdogs and covered the spread, losing by just three points. The total score of 215 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 203.5 by 11.5 points.

Golden State’s 13-0 run early in the game put Houston in a tough spot, but the Rockets responded with a strong 2nd quarter, outscoring the Warriors 31-22. However, the Warriors took control again in the 3rd quarter, and despite a close 4th quarter, they edged out the Rockets 27-26 to seal the win.

Alperen Şengün led the Rockets with 31 points and 10 rebounds in their 109-106 loss to the Warriors, scoring 11 points in the 3rd quarter and another 10 in the 4th. Fred VanVleet added 25 points, hitting 8 threes at a 66.7% rate, with 9 points in the 2nd quarter.

VanVleet connected on 8 threes, contributing to the Rockets’ 11 made threes, shooting 47.8% from deep and 49.4% overall. Amen Thompson chipped in 17 points, including 8 in both the 1st and 4th quarters.

The Rockets put together a solid defensive effort, holding the Warriors to 109 points on 41% shooting. Houston’s best defensive quarter came in the 2nd, where they allowed just 22 points, but they gave up 32 in the 3rd.

Houston struggled to contain Golden State from beyond the arc, giving up 17 threes on 37% shooting. The Warriors also went 20/22 from the free-throw line. The Rockets finished with 6 steals and 6 blocks.

• In their last five games at home, the Rockets have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 106 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Rockets have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.
• In their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

In this Warriors vs. Rockets matchup, our point-spread bet is on the Warriors at +4.5. While we project the Rockets to win 134-133, our recommendation is to bet on the Warriors for the point-spread.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 203.5, and our model predicts the Warriors and Rockets to score a combined 267 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Warriors Look to Close Out Rockets in Game 5 Behind Jimmy Butler

The Golden State Warriors are one win away from advancing, and they have Jimmy Butler to thank for putting them in the driver’s seat. Now, with a 3-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets, the Warriors head to Houston for Game 5 with confidence and momentum on their side.

Butler’s Return Shifts the Series

After missing Game 3 with a lower-body injury, Butler returned in Game 4 and delivered a clutch 27-point performance to lead Golden State to a narrow 109-106 win. He added five rebounds and six assists while shooting a perfect 12-of-12 from the free-throw line, including securing the game-sealing rebound in the final seconds.

“We have a great vibe here,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “Jimmy really wanted to be here. It’s just a great, great match. He’s exactly what we needed.”

Butler, acquired from Miami at the trade deadline, has quickly emerged as a leader for the Warriors both on and off the court.

Golden State’s Experience Continues to Shine

While the Rockets have struggled with execution in close games, the Warriors have leaned on their veteran presence. Golden State is a cumulative +15 in fourth quarters across its three wins this series and continues to execute in key moments.

“You don’t want to mess around with the game,” Stephen Curry said. “Closeout games are extremely difficult because of desperation from the other side… You got to be disciplined more so than anything.”

The Warriors’ poise and discipline late in games make them an attractive pick for bettors eyeing smart value in tonight’s matchup. If you’re evaluating momentum and performance under pressure, now’s a good time to review the latest NBA Best Bets Today before Game 5.

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Rockets Search for Stability

Houston’s young core has shown flashes, but inconsistency has plagued them all series. Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason have all taken turns contributing, but their collective inexperience has surfaced at critical junctures.

The Rockets have missed 35 free throws in the series and failed to maintain late-game leads in three of four contests. Still, head coach Ime Udoka remains hopeful.

“Consistency wins in this series, and we’ve talked about that from day one,” Udoka said. “The plan is obviously to go home and get one and come back (to San Francisco).”