Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland-cavaliers Picks and Predictions May 9th 2025

At 7:30 ET, the Cleveland Cavaliers (-158) will travel to Indianapolis to take on the Pacers (+135). ESPN will have the TV coverage for this Eastern Central Division matchup. The Cavaliers are favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 227.

Cleveland is currently on a two-game losing streak and has a record of 64-18. They are first in the Eastern Conference and Central Division. Indiana has won four straight games and is 50-32 overall. They are fourth in the East and second in the Central.

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Cavaliers vs. Pacers Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers
• Where: Indianapolis at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• Date: Friday, May 9th
• Betting Odds CLE -3.5, CLE -158 | IND +135 O/U 227

The Cavaliers Can Win If…

The Cavaliers fell to 64-18 on the season after a narrow 120-119 loss to the Pacers on Tuesday. Cleveland, who were -5.5 favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 239, surpassing the pre-game O/U line of 228.5 by 10.5 points.

Cleveland looked in control early, going on a 13-0 run to push the score from 23-15 to 36-15. However, after winning the 1st quarter 32-15, the Pacers chipped away, outscoring Cleveland 35-29 in the 2nd. The Cavs regained momentum in the 3rd, winning 37-34, but a 36-21 4th quarter from Indiana sealed the comeback.

Donovan Mitchell’s 48 points and 9 assists weren’t enough for the Cavaliers in their 120-119 loss to the Pacers. Mitchell shot 50% from the field, adding 15 points in the 3rd quarter and another 12 in the 4th. Max Strus contributed 23 points, hitting 5 threes at 41.7%, while Jarrett Allen was efficient, scoring 22 points on 77.8% shooting.

Cleveland struggled from beyond the arc, making just 11 threes at a 28.2% clip, finishing with a 43.3% overall shooting percentage. Sam Merrill added 14 points, with 9 coming in the opening quarter.

The Cavaliers’ defense shined in the 1st quarter, giving up just 15 points, but they struggled the rest of the way, allowing 35 points in the 2nd quarter, 34 in the 3rd, and 36 in the 4th, leading to a 120-119 loss to the Pacers. Cleveland allowed Indiana to shoot 51% from the field.

On the perimeter, the Cavaliers limited the Pacers to 11 made threes on 39% shooting. Cleveland sent Indiana to the line 29 times, where they hit 21 free throws. The Cavaliers finished with 29 defensive rebounds, gave up 11 offensive boards, and recorded 11 steals and 5 blocks.

• Across their last three road contests, Cleveland has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 123 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Cavaliers have a straight up record of 3-2, while going 2-3 against the spread.
• Over their last five games, the Cavaliers have an over/under record of 4-0-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

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The Pacers Can Win If…

The Pacers improved to 50-32 this season with a 120-119 road win over the Cavaliers on Tuesday. Indiana entered the game as +5.5 point underdogs and covered the spread with the win. The total score of 239 points went over the pre-game line of 228.5.

After falling behind 36-15 following a 13-0 run by the Cavs, the Pacers fought back, winning the 2nd quarter 35-29. Although Cleveland edged them 37-34 in the 3rd, Indiana dominated the 4th quarter, outscoring the Cavs 36-21 to complete the comeback.

Aaron Nesmith and Myles Turner each scored 23 points in the Pacers’ 120-119 win over the Cavaliers, with Nesmith hitting 5 threes at a 62.5% clip. Overall, the Pacers shot 51.8% from the field and 39.3% from beyond the arc, making 11 threes.

Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin both added 19 points, with Haliburton scoring 11 in the 4th quarter and Mathurin adding 10 in the 3rd. Nesmith also contributed 7 points in the final period.

Despite giving up 119 points, the Pacers’ defense came through when it mattered, allowing just 21 points in the 4th quarter to secure the win over the Cavaliers. Indiana held Cleveland to 43% shooting from the field, including just 28% from beyond the arc, where the Cavaliers made 11 threes.

The Pacers sent the Cavaliers to the line 35 times, where they converted 30 free throws. Indiana finished with 33 defensive rebounds, while giving up 14 offensive boards. The Pacers also contributed 7 steals and 9 blocked shots.

• Through their last ten home contests, the Pacers offense has averaged 124 points per game while allowing an average of 118. Indiana posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 7-3 ATS.
• As the betting underdog, the Pacers have an ATS mark of just 7-3 in their last ten games. Indiana posted a straight up mark of 6-4 in these matchups.
• In their last five games, the Pacers have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Cavaliers to secure the win, with an expected final score of 146-130. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -3.5.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 227 and given that our model is projecting 276 points between the teams, we like the over.

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Pacers Look to Tighten Grip as Undermanned Cavaliers Fight to Stay Alive

The Indiana Pacers head back to Gainbridge Fieldhouse with all the momentum and a chance to take full control of their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the shorthanded Cleveland Cavaliers. Holding a 2-0 lead after two tightly contested games, the Pacers have a prime opportunity to put the Cavaliers on the brink in Game 3 on Friday night.

Haliburton Silencing Doubters, Powering Indiana

Tyrese Haliburton has been at the heart of Indiana’s clutch postseason success. Just days after being named the NBA’s most overrated player in an anonymous player poll, the All-Star guard responded the only way he knows how—by delivering on the court. His latest masterpiece: 22 points, 13 assists, and a cold-blooded game-winning three-pointer with 1.1 seconds left to seal a 120-119 win in Game 2.

“We just have a resilient group. We just figure out ways to win. We don’t give up and we’re battle-tested.”
— Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers Guard

Haliburton, playing through a wrapped left wrist, continues to lead a Pacers team that now sits two wins away from back-to-back conference finals appearances. His leadership and big-game flair are exactly the kind of traits bettors look for when locking in NBA betting picks this deep into the playoffs.

Cavaliers Battered But Battling

Cleveland was painfully close to tying the series in Game 2, thanks to Donovan Mitchell’s monster 48-point night and strong support from Max Strus and Jarrett Allen. But without Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter, the Cavaliers ran out of gas late—again.

“We’ve shown how deep we are as a team, how great we are as a unit. But it’s tough losing like that.”
— Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers Guard

The injury report still looms large. All three sidelined players were listed as questionable for Game 3 after limited participation in Thursday’s walkthrough, and head coach Kenny Atkinson acknowledged the difficult emotional toll the absences are having on the team.

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“It’s frustrating for all of us… injuries are a tough thing, and you don’t really know unless you experience it yourself.”
— Kenny Atkinson, Cavaliers Coach

For those tracking NBA predictions and betting analysis, it’s crucial to watch the status of Garland, Mobley, and Hunter closely. Their availability could swing the odds—and the outcome—of Game 3.

Pacers Eye Commanding Lead at Home

Indiana’s depth and chemistry have overwhelmed Cleveland in late-game situations. If Haliburton remains hot and the Cavaliers remain short-staffed, Indiana could head into Game 4 with a commanding 3-0 series advantage. And for anyone making playoff bets, that’s a narrative you don’t want to ignore.

“It’s the NBA. Crazier things have happened… We’ve had many games where you could take a screenshot at any moment and be like, ‘How did they win this game?’”
— Tyrese Haliburton