Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland-cavaliers Picks and Predictions May 11th 2025

Series at a Crossroads in Indianapolis

With Indiana leading the series 2–1 but Cleveland unbeaten on the road in these playoffs, Sunday’s Game 4 in Indianapolis carries massive weight. The Pacers desperately need a signature victory to preserve home-ice advantage and snap the Cavs’ streak of winning by an average of 38 points in their three road wins. Conversely, a win by Cleveland would shift both the series and the psychological edge firmly to the visitors. Expect a charged atmosphere at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where every defensive stop and offensive possession will be magnified.

Haliburton’s Bounce-Back Imperative vs. Mitchell’s Momentum

Tyrese Haliburton’s four-point outing in Game 3 fell far below his postseason standards, but he remains central to Indiana’s fortunes. His ability to orchestrate the offense, hit midrange pull-ups and finish in transition must reemerge for the Pacers to compete. On the other end, Donovan Mitchell delivered a “masterful” 43-point showing, slicing through Indiana’s schemes with efficient drives, pull-up threes and impeccable free-throw work. Haliburton will need to reclaim his playmaking poise and find lanes to attack a Cavaliers defense that is now believing in Mitchell’s dominance.

Supporting Casts: Strus, Allen and Mobley’s Returns

Cleveland’s depth proved decisive in Game 3. Max Strus and Jarrett Allen combined for 39 points and 19 rebounds, while Evan Mobley’s return from injury brought tenacious rim protection and floor-spacing that tilted the paint in the Cavs’ favor. Indiana counters with Pascal Siakam’s heavy lifting in the post and Myles Turner’s rim deterrence, but both must step up scoring and defensive presence. Battling for second-chance points on the boards and contesting perimeter shots without fouling will be crucial contributions from these role players.

Tactical Adjustments: Pace, Defense and Key Matchups

Coach Rick Carlisle must force Cleveland into half-court sets, limiting transition opportunities that feed Mitchell and Strus. Indiana’s game plan should emphasize stopping the second-chance rebounding that fueled Jarrett Allen and contesting every catch-and-shoot scenario. Cleveland, under coach J.B. Bickerstaff, will look to accelerate pace off missed shots, with Donovan Mitchell triggering presses and Mobley leading quick outlet passes. The battle in pick-and-roll coverage—whether Indiana opts for drop coverage or aggressive hedges—will determine who controls the paint.

Betting Angle and Prop Insights

With both stars capable of lighting up the stat sheet but surrounded by variable supporting casts, the over/under for combined points by Haliburton and Mitchell offers value. Expect Game 4 to be a high-intensity affair with clutch performances deciding late possessions. For detailed breakdowns, player props and series-long strategies, check out our NBA Expert Picks.