Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Predictions May 12th 2025

At 10:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-213) will travel to San Francisco to take on the Warriors (+180) in a Western Conference matchup. Minnesota is currently favored by 5.5 points and has won two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 200.5.

ESPN will have TV coverage for this game, which will be played at Chase Center. Golden State (-213) is currently 7th in the Western Conference and has lost two straight games. Minnesota (-213) is 6th in the West and 3rd in the Northwest Division.

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Timberwolves vs. Warriors Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors
• Where: San Francisco at Chase Center
• Date: Monday, May 12th
• Betting Odds MIN -5.5, MIN -213 | GS +180 O/U 200.5

The Timberwolves Can Win If…

The Timberwolves improved to 49-33 on the season with a 102-97 win over the Warriors on Saturday. Minnesota, favored by 5.5 points, didn’t cover the spread, and the total points of 199 fell just short of the 201.5 O/U line.

After an 11-0 run by the Warriors shifted the score from 21-14 to 25-21, Minnesota battled back. They entered the 4th quarter down 73-69 but outscored Golden State 33-24 in the final period to seal the win.

Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves to a win over the Warriors with 36 points, hitting 5 threes despite shooting 35.7% from deep. He scored 15 points in the 3rd quarter and added 13 more in the 4th. Overall, the Timberwolves shot 43.9% from the field and 38.2% from three, making 13 threes in the game.

Julius Randle contributed a double-double with 24 points and 12 assists, scoring 9 points in the 2nd quarter. Jaden McDaniels added 15 points, hitting 3 threes at a 75% rate, with 9 of his points coming in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the Timberwolves held the Warriors to 97 points, giving up 21 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters. They allowed 31 points in the 3rd but tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 24 points.

Minnesota limited Golden State to 10 made threes, though the Warriors shot 43% from deep. The Timberwolves sent the Warriors to the line 21 times, where they made 17 free throws. Minnesota finished with 4 steals and 7 blocks.

• In their last five road games, Minnesota has averaged 109 points per game while allowing 101 . The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 4-1.
• Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

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The Warriors Can Win If…

The Warriors fell to 48-34 on the season after a 102-97 home loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday. Golden State was +5.5 point underdogs but managed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 199 points came in just under the O/U line of 201.5.

Golden State went on an 11-0 run early, turning a 21-14 deficit into a 25-21 lead. They led 73-69 going into the 4th quarter but were outscored 33-24 in the final period.

In their 102-97 loss to the Timberwolves, the Warriors struggled offensively, shooting 43.2% from the field and making just 10 threes, despite hitting 43.5% from beyond the arc. Jimmy Butler III led the way with 33 points, 7 assists, and 7 rebounds, while Jonathan Kuminga added 30 points and 6 rebounds, shooting 61.1% from the floor and hitting 3 threes at a 75% clip.

Butler scored 11 points in the 1st quarter and 10 more in the 3rd, while Kuminga added 10 points in the 4th. Buddy Hield contributed 14 points, with 9 of those coming in the 3rd quarter, and he connected on 4 threes, shooting 50% from deep.

The Warriors put together a strong defensive effort in the 1st and 2nd quarters, holding the Timberwolves to 21 and 19 points, respectively. However, they struggled in the 4th, giving up 33 points, which contributed to their 102-97 loss. Overall, they allowed Minnesota to shoot 43% from the field.

Golden State limited the Timberwolves to 13 made threes on 38% shooting from beyond the arc. They also sent Minnesota to the free-throw line 21 times, where the Timberwolves converted 17. The Warriors finished with 6 steals and 7 blocks.

• In their last three home games, Golden State has averaged 98 points per game while allowing 98. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• In their last three games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Not only do we have the Timberwolves winning this one by a score of 129-104, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Timberwolves at -5.5.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 200.5, and our model projects the Timberwolves and Warriors to reach a combined total of 233 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

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Warriors Aim to Stay Alive Without Curry Against Rising Timberwolves

Facing the possibility of falling into a 3-1 series hole, the Golden State Warriors return to the court Monday night looking to prove they can win without Stephen Curry. After back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Warriors must find answers fast if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive in this Western Conference semifinal.

Curry’s Absence Looms Large

Golden State stunned Minnesota in Game 1 with a 99-88 road win, but the victory came at a cost—Stephen Curry suffered a strained left hamstring and has been ruled out for Game 4. With the superstar sidelined, Minnesota took full advantage, winning Games 2 and 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.

Curry is set to be re-evaluated Tuesday, and the Warriors are optimistic about a potential return before the end of the series. A Golden State win in either Game 4 or Game 5 would force a Game 6 next Sunday, increasing the likelihood of Curry rejoining the lineup.

Edwards Leads Timberwolves, Warriors Struggle From Deep

Game 3 was a tightly contested battle, but Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards proved to be the difference. He outdueled Jimmy Butler III 36-33 and scored 28 of those points in the second half, lifting the Timberwolves to a 102-97 victory in San Francisco.

“There’s no sigh of relief at any point… This is a playoff series for a reason.”
— Naz Reid, Timberwolves Forward

Minnesota’s perimeter shooting was decisive, especially late in the game. The Timberwolves hit 13 of 34 shots from beyond the arc, including key fourth-quarter triples from Edwards, Reid (3-for-3), and Jaden McDaniels (3-for-4). Golden State, by contrast, attempted a season-low 23 threes, making just 10.

Reid now leads Minnesota in postseason 3-pointers with nine and is shooting 50 percent from deep—something savvy bettors are tracking in current NBA playoff predictions.

Kuminga’s Breakout Performance Offers Hope

With Curry sidelined, the Warriors needed someone to step up—and Jonathan Kuminga delivered. After barely seeing the floor in the early playoff rounds, Kuminga exploded for a postseason career-high 30 points in Game 3.

“It’s kind of actually easy… It’s just the same way as Steph in a different way. They are two different people, but they attract so much attention.”
— Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors Forward

His chemistry with Jimmy Butler III and confidence playing off the ball gave Golden State a much-needed offensive spark. The question now is whether the rest of the roster can elevate their play in Curry’s absence.

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Do the Warriors Have One More Push Without Their Star?

Game 4 will be a litmus test for the Warriors’ depth and resilience. A win extends the series and keeps Curry’s potential return in play. A loss? The Timberwolves move one step closer to the Western Conference Finals.