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Lynx vs Mercury Picks and Predictions — WNBA Semifinals Game 1
The Minnesota Lynx barely escaped the expansion Golden State Valkyries in the first round, needing a 75-74 win to advance. Now, they open their semifinal series at home against the Phoenix Mercury in Game 1 on Sunday.
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Minnesota went 20-2 at home during the regular season, while Phoenix is fresh off a stunning 79-73 win over the defending champion New York Liberty. With Napheesa Collier leading the Lynx and Alyssa Thomas producing her fifth career playoff triple-double, both teams enter this matchup leaning on their clutch stars.
The Lynx Can Win If…
The Lynx need Napheesa Collier to continue her MVP-level play. She averaged 22.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists this season, ranking second in scoring behind A’ja Wilson.
Collier’s scoring and Alanna Smith’s defense are the keys. Smith was recently named WNBA Co-Defensive Player of the Year, and Minnesota’s ability to disrupt Phoenix’s ball movement could set the tone.
Minnesota also benefits from one of the strongest home-court advantages in the league, where they dominated all season. If the Lynx dictate tempo early, they can put Phoenix on its heels.
The Mercury Can Win If…
The Mercury proved they’re dangerous after eliminating the Liberty in a winner-take-all Game 3. Alyssa Thomas was unstoppable, recording 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists for a triple-double. Satou Sabally also chipped in 23 points and 12 boards.
The X-factor may be DeWanna Bonner, whose veteran leadership and clutch playoff moments have given Phoenix another reliable scoring option.
If Thomas controls the pace with her playmaking and Phoenix continues to dominate the boards, they can challenge Minnesota even in a tough road setting.
Key WNBA Betting Trends
| Category | Lynx | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Home Record (2025) | 20-2 | 8-14 (Away) |
| Last 5 Games | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Season Head-to-Head | Lynx 3-1 | Mercury 1-3 |
| Playoff ATS Record (2025) | 1-1 | 2-1 |
The Lean
Model Projection: Lynx 83, Mercury 77
Best Bet: Lynx -5.5
Total Lean: Over 159.5
Minnesota’s home dominance and Collier’s consistent scoring make them the safer side. However, Phoenix’s size and rebounding could keep it close, making the Over an intriguing angle given both teams’ offensive weapons.
Check more WNBA previews and picks before betting Game 1.
Best Bet Box
| Best Bet Category | Selection |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Lynx -5.5 |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Lynx 83, Mercury 77 |
| Total Lean | Over 159.5 |
