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Jets vs Dolphins Week 4 Betting Preview
The New York Jets travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Dolphins on Monday, Sept. 29, 2025, in a prime AFC East clash. Both teams are 0-3 and desperate for a win, with history showing how rare it is to rebound from 0-4. The Jets nearly upset Tampa Bay last week behind Tyrod Taylor before falling on a last-second field goal. Miami, meanwhile, dropped another to Buffalo and has allowed 30+ points in every game. Opening odds: Dolphins -2.5, MIA ML -154 / NYJ ML +128, Total 45.0. For a full slate breakdown, see our NFL Week 4 odds and predictions.
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Line Movement and Odds
- Opening line: Dolphins -2.5, Total 45.0
- Current line: Market holds steady at -2.5, juice tilting to Miami at -120.
- Moneyline: Dolphins -154, Jets +128.
- Total: 45.0 with balanced action on both sides.
Public money leans slightly to the Jets after their furious rally vs. Tampa. Sharps are keeping it cautious, waiting for final word on Justin Fields’ status.
Player focus:
• Jets QB Justin Fields practiced in full Thursday but must clear concussion protocol.
• WR Garrett Wilson continues to be the Jets’ main playmaker, hauling in 84 yards and a TD last week.
• Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is under fire after four INTs in three games but has five passing TDs.
• WR Tyreek Hill remains a matchup nightmare, with a TD catch in Week 3.
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Matchup Breakdown
Jets Outlook
New York nearly flipped momentum last week with a 21-point fourth quarter. Even without Fields, Tyrod Taylor kept the offense moving. The run game, paced by Breece Hall, needs to control tempo against a shaky Miami defense. Defensively, the Jets rank bottom five in scoring defense, but they’re opportunistic, ranking top five in forced fumbles last year. Their ceiling depends on Fields’ health and their ability to pressure Tagovailoa into mistakes.
Dolphins Outlook
Miami’s defense has been the NFL’s worst through three weeks, allowing 32.3 points per game. The offense isn’t keeping pace, with only 18.7 points per game and too many turnovers. The positives: Miami still has explosive weapons in Hill and Jaylen Waddle, while De’Von Achane provides balance in the run game. Mike McDaniel defended his quarterback, saying Tua is focused on going “1-0 this week.” That urgency must translate to execution at home, where Miami has historically responded as a short favorite.
Key Battle: WRs vs Secondary
Hill and Waddle vs. a banged-up Jets secondary is the matchup that swings this game. If New York’s corners can’t hold up, Miami will generate explosive plays. If the Jets disrupt timing, this turns into a one-possession grinder.
Injuries and Conditions
| New York Jets | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|
| QB Justin Fields (concussion) – full practice, not cleared | CB Storm Duck (ankle) – out |
| CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (ankle) – DNP | CB Jason Marshall Jr. (hamstring) – DNP |
| LB Jermaine Johnson II (ankle) – DNP | TE Darren Waller (shoulder) – limited |
| RB Kene Nwangwu (hamstring) – limited | WR Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) – limited |
| WR Josh Reynolds (hamstring) – limited Jets injury report | S Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf) – full practice Dolphins injury report |
Weather: Typical South Florida September: warm and humid, chance of scattered storms. Monitor closer to kickoff.
Best Bets and Prediction
Both defenses leak points, but Miami has the better path to explosive plays at home. New York’s cover hopes hinge on Fields clearing protocol. The number is short, and Dolphins’ ATS record as a small home favorite (5-1 last six) supports them.
- Pick: Dolphins -2.5
- Projected score: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
- Reasoning: Miami’s weapons at home tilt the matchup. Jets’ defense not sturdy enough.
- Secondary lean: Over 45.0, tied to turnover volatility and big plays.
For more breakdowns across the board, check our latest NFL previews.
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Dolphins -2.5 (–120) |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Dolphins 24, Jets 20 |
| Moneyline Lean | Dolphins ML -154 |
| Total Lean | Over 45.0 |
| Market Split | Public 55% on Dolphins, sharp bets split on total |
Handicappers and Picks
Winning bettors track consistency, not noise. At ScoresAndStats, every play is verified so you know which experts are in rhythm. The Leaderboard highlights streaks across NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and college sports. If you’re looking for deeper insights, browse premium Service Plays before locking in your ticket. For no-cost action, our Free NFL Picks provide daily breakdowns of spreads, totals, and moneyline value. New to betting or looking to sharpen edges? The Bettors Handbook lays out the strategies pros use to manage risk and stay profitable. Whether you’re tailing hot handicappers or doing your own homework, SAS has every resource to give you an advantage.
