Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions October 13th 2025

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Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Week 6 Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills will aim to rebound from their first loss of the season when they travel to Atlanta for a Monday Night Football matchup against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Week 6 primetime clash kicks off at 7:15 PM ET on ESPN and features two teams trending in opposite directions — the Bills (4–1) looking to reassert dominance, and the Falcons (2–2) trying to prove they belong among the NFC’s contenders.

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Buffalo, which entered Week 5 as the NFL’s last undefeated team, fell 23–20 to New England despite another efficient game from Josh Allen, who has thrown for 1,217 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta is coming off a bye after a narrow 34–27 victory over Washington, buoyed by rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and dynamic running back Bijan Robinson.

Oddsmakers opened the Bills at -4 and have held steady at -4.5, with a total of 49.5 points (Over -115, Under -105).

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Line Movement and Odds

Buffalo opened at -210 on the moneyline and has moved slightly to -216, while sharp bettors have split 60/40 in favor of the Bills covering the spread. Atlanta’s home-field dome advantage has drawn mild public action on the Falcons +4.5, but early money has favored the Under 49.5 (-105) after both teams’ defenses showed improved red-zone efficiency.

The Bills are 5–1 ATS in their last six road games, while the Falcons are just 2–7 ATS in their past nine as home underdogs.

“It’s about trusting our process,” Allen said. “We’ve got a chance to bounce back in a great environment.”

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Matchup Breakdown

Buffalo Bills Outlook:
The Bills remain a balanced powerhouse on both sides of the ball, ranking second in total offense (416 yards per game) and fifth in scoring defense (17.2 points per game). James Cook continues to drive the ground game with 450 yards and five touchdowns, while tight end Dalton Kincaid emerged as a matchup nightmare with 108 receiving yards last week. On defense, Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver spearhead a pass rush that ranks third in pressures.

Buffalo’s biggest concern is health: six starters were limited in practice this week, including key defenders Matt Milano (pectoral) and Taylor Rapp (nose). Still, Sean McDermott’s team hasn’t lost consecutive games since early 2023.

“Bijan’s a problem,” McDermott said of Atlanta’s star back. “You have to gang-tackle him.”

Atlanta Falcons Outlook:
The Falcons’ identity shift under head coach Raheem Morris is paying dividends. The defense leads the league in total yardage allowed (244 YPG) and has become one of the NFL’s best tackling units. Offensively, rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has impressed with 313 passing yards and two touchdowns in his last outing, and Bijan Robinson continues to excel with 314 rushing yards through four games.

Getting cornerback A.J. Terrell back from injury bolsters a secondary that will be tested by Buffalo’s deep receiving corps. However, the Falcons’ offensive line must improve after allowing nine sacks in four games.

“We play fast, we play physical,” Morris said. “We’re building something that travels — especially on defense.”

Injuries and Conditions

Buffalo BillsAtlanta Falcons
Matt Milano – Out (Pectoral)Darnell Mooney – Out (Hamstring)
T.J. Sanders – Out (Knee)A.J. Terrell – Probable (Hamstring)
Dalton Kincaid – Limited (Oblique)Kaleb McGary – Questionable (Ankle)
Dion Dawkins – Limited (Thumb)Kyle Pitts – Probable (Rest)
Ed Oliver – Limited (Ankle)Bijan Robinson – Probable (Maintenance)
Bills Injury ReportFalcons Injury Report

Weather: Dome stadium — no external factors.

Top Winners – Today
Computer Picks
$890
2. Gino Russo
$400
3. Sean Alvarez
$400
4. Scott’s Picks
$330
5. Joe Berra
$300
Top Winners – Yesterday
Computer Picks
$890
2. Gino Russo
$400
3. Sean Alvarez
$400
4. Scott’s Picks
$330
5. Joe Berra
$300
Top Winners – This Week
Computer Picks
$1,230
2. Sports Central
$595
3. Seth Cohen
$592
4. Coach Rick
$525
5. Heather Williams
$495
Top Winners – This Month
Rubi Chavez
$2,036
2. Sean Alvarez
$1,358
3. Ryan Davis
$1,290
4. Coach Rick
$1,180
5. Jimmy Boyd
$1,010

Best Bets and Prediction

The Falcons’ defense has improved, but the Bills’ offensive versatility should prove too much over four quarters. Expect Allen and Cook to exploit Atlanta’s aggressive fronts with play-action, while Buffalo’s secondary limits Penix’s deep passing. With both teams capable of scoring in bursts but featuring improved defenses, this total may stay just below 50. If you’re building multi-leg tickets for this matchup or others, don’t miss our Best NFL Parlays guide

Pick: Bills -4.5 (-110)
Projected Final Score: Bills 28, Falcons 21
Best Bet: Bills -4.5 (-110)
Lean: Under 49.5 (-105)

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Monday Night in Atlanta: Statement Game for Buffalo

Buffalo looks to avoid its first losing streak since 2023, while the Falcons chase a signature home win. Check out expert over/under trends and live line moves →

CategoryDetail
Best BetBills -4.5 (-110)
Confidence Rating★★★★☆
Projected ScoreBills 28, Falcons 21
Total LeanUnder 49.5 (-105)
Market Split60% bets Bills, 55% sharp money Under

ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks

The ScoresAndStats Handicappers Leaderboard highlights verified pros with proven long-term returns — including NFL cappers specializing in primetime games and totals. The site’s model-based analytics have consistently nailed early-season edges in markets like first-half lines, rushing props, and team totals.

If you’re targeting Monday Night Football, the Service Plays section offers premium insights into matchup-specific trends — like how Josh Allen performs indoors or how the Falcons fare against mobile quarterbacks.

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