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Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Week 6 Betting Preview
The Washington Commanders welcome the Chicago Bears to Northwest Stadium on Monday Night Football, marking the first meeting between the teams since last season’s infamous “Fail Mary” game — a shocking 27-25 Commanders win on a last-second Hail Mary that derailed Chicago’s 2024 campaign.
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A year later, both franchises have new leadership and new outlooks. Chicago (2–2) is coming off its bye week after a narrow 25–24 win over Las Vegas, while Washington (3–2) is fresh off an impressive 27–10 road win at the Chargers. The Commanders have won both home games this season and boast one of the NFC’s most balanced rosters. For a complete look at spreads, totals, and expert forecasts across the league, visit our NFL Week 6 Odds & Predictions
Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET Monday, Oct. 13, 2025, with live coverage on ABC. The Commanders opened as -4 favorites, and the line has settled at Washington -4.5, with a total of 50.5 points.
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Line Movement and Odds
The Commanders opened -3.5 and were quickly bet up to -4.5 as sharp bettors backed Washington’s front seven to overwhelm Chicago’s shaky offensive line. The Bears (+186) have drawn light public support, but heavy action has landed on the Under 50.5 (-115), especially after both teams leaned on the run and short passing in recent weeks.
Washington is 10–0 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite, while Chicago is 3–9 ATS in its past 12 primetime appearances.
“That’s last year’s story,” Commanders coach Dan Quinn said. “It was awesome; we loved it. But it doesn’t apply to this week’s game.”
Matchup Breakdown
Chicago Bears Outlook:
First overall pick Caleb Williams has shown flashes of brilliance early in his rookie season — throwing for 927 yards, eight touchdowns, and just two interceptions. However, protection remains an issue; he’s been sacked seven times in four games, and the Bears’ offensive line still struggles in third-and-long situations.
Chicago’s defense ranks 26th in points allowed (29.3 per game) but continues to generate turnovers, with veteran safety Kevin Byard III recording two interceptions in Week 4. The Bears’ offense is inconsistent, averaging 328 total yards, but has found rhythm late in games.
“We’re a work in progress,” coach Ben Johnson said. “The inconsistency is what’s holding us back.”
Washington Commanders Outlook:
The Commanders are trending upward behind second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels, who returned from a knee injury to post 231 yards and a touchdown last week. Rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been a revelation, logging 111 yards and two scores in Los Angeles.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. is the focal point of the offense, ranking ninth in the league in receptions (30). Washington’s defense has been fierce up front, tied for third in sacks (15), with Dorance Armstrong leading the way at five. The return of A.J. Terrell strengthens the secondary, and the Commanders’ run defense has allowed just 89.6 yards per game.
“We’re playing fast and physical,” Quinn said. “That’s our identity.”
Injuries and Conditions
| Chicago Bears | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|
| Jaquan Brisker – DNP (Quad) | Terry McLaurin – DNP (Quad) |
| Darnell Wright – DNP (Elbow) | Noah Brown – Limited (Groin/Knee) |
| Grady Jarrett – DNP (Knee) | A.J. Terrell – Limited (Hamstring) |
| — | Jamin Davis – Probable (Ankle) |
| Bears Injury Report | Commanders Injury Report |
Weather: Clear and mild night in Landover; no weather concerns under the lights.
Best Bets and Prediction
Expect Washington’s front four to create constant pressure on Williams, forcing quick throws and limiting Chicago’s ability to stretch the field. The Commanders’ offense, behind Daniels and Samuel, should sustain drives and control time of possession. While the Bears’ playmaking ability could produce a few big moments, Washington’s home dominance and defensive discipline give them the edge.
Pick: Commanders -4.5 (-110)
Projected Final Score: Commanders 28, Bears 20
Best Bet: Commanders -4.5 (-110)
Lean: Under 50.5 (-115)
Explore more NFL Game Forecasts, Betting Analysis, and Expert Picks at the ScoresAndStats NFL Previews page.
Monday Night Redemption in D.C.
The “Fail Mary” might live in highlight reels, but this rematch is about redemption. Expect both defenses to dictate early before Washington’s ground game takes over. Get primetime betting insights and live odds →
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Commanders -4.5 (-110) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Commanders 28, Bears 20 |
| Total Lean | Under 50.5 (-115) |
| Market Split | 65% bets Commanders, 58% sharp money Under |
ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks
The ScoresAndStats Handicappers Leaderboard features top NFL analysts ranked by long-term ROI and unit profit — ideal for tracking who’s dominating ATS in primetime games. Bettors can also explore the Service Plays section for premium NFL picks, model projections, and public-vs-sharp money breakdowns.
Seasoned handicappers emphasize the Monday Night Football underdog trend, but Washington’s situational edge — elite pass rush, rest advantage, and home-field continuity — makes the favorite the sharper side here.
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