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Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals Betting Preview
Dallas returns home on Monday Night Football trying to stop a defensive collapse that’s derailed a top-tier offense. Arizona has lost five straight, but every game was decided in the final minutes and with Kyler Murray expected back, this is not a free square for the Cowboys. The betting angle: Can Dallas’ offense outpace their defensive breakdowns, or do the Cardinals stay inside the number again as underdogs?
Line Movement and Odds
Dallas opened around -2.5 with a total of 54. The line has held early with slight lean toward Arizona due to Kyler Murray’s expected return and Dallas’ defensive problems. Totals are drawing interest to the over, supported by Dallas games going 5-0 to the over in their last five. Monitor live movement on the NFL odds board closer to kickoff.
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Matchup Breakdown
Dallas Cowboys Outlook
The Dallas Cowboys are 3-4-1 and have allowed 250 points in eight games — nearly on pace to break defensive records for points allowed. Five of eight opponents have scored 30+ on this unit, and the secondary continues to give up explosive plays. Dak Prescott is doing enough to win most weeks, leading the league in completions (204) and throwing 16 touchdowns, but opponents are answering nearly every score. Tight end Jake Ferguson leads the team with 51 receptions and six touchdowns. Dallas is averaging 41.3 points and 441 yards per game at home — if the defense stabilizes at all, they win comfortably. That continues to be the issue.
Arizona Cardinals Outlook
The Arizona Cardinals are 2-5 and have lost five straight, but by a combined total of only 13 points. Head coach Jonathan Gannon called it simple: “No magic sauce — just play better.” Kyler Murray is expected to return after missing two games with a foot injury. He is 9-0 at AT&T Stadium dating to high school and college. Tight end Trey McBride has emerged as the top target — 10 receptions and two touchdowns in Week 7, leading the team with 47 catches, 421 yards, and four scores. The run game is thin with James Conner and Trey Benson on IR, leaving Murray as the team’s leading rusher.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
This comes down to whether Dallas’ defense can get stops. Prescott and the offense can move the ball at will — but opponents are averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt and have thrown 20 touchdowns against this defense. If Murray returns and plays like himself, Arizona can attack Dallas’ secondary and force a shootout. For Dallas, it’s about pass rush vs protection and limiting McBride over the middle.
Injuries / Availability
Kyler Murray was limited in practice but is preparing to start after resting during the bye. Dallas listed linebacker Jack Sanborn (groin) and safeties Donovan Wilson (elbow/shoulder) and Alijah Clark (ribs) as non-participants Thursday. Six others were limited, including left guard Tyler Smith (knee). For official updates, check the Cowboys’ injury report on their team site and the Cardinals’ official injury page before wagering.
Environment / Game Conditions
AT&T Stadium features a retractable roof, so weather will not affect play. Dallas’ turf surface supports speed and explosive plays. This environment favors offensive tempo — the Cowboys average over 41 points per game at home, and if Murray plays, Arizona gains pace and creativity offensively. Crowd noise works against Arizona’s offensive line in pass protection, particularly early.
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Best Bets and Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Cowboys 30, Cardinals 27
- Best Bet: Over 54.0
- Secondary Lean: Cardinals +2.5
Dallas has scored 40+ at home repeatedly, but their defense is giving up explosive plays and can’t sustain leads. Arizona has covered three straight road games and hasn’t lost by more than seven in any of their last five. Murray’s return increases scoring volatility — which pushes the over as the strongest position. Slight lean to the underdog to cover in a shootout.
Handicappers and Service Plays
The biggest edges in games like this come from timing — knowing when quarterback news moves a line. Verified experts who track injury reports, pace data, and open-to-closed line value consistently outperform public bettors. You can compare profitable records on the Best Handicappers page, view real-time units won on the Leaderboard, or buy picks directly from top NFL analysts in the Buy Picks section. Following sharp handicappers is one of the few consistent +EV strategies in NFL betting.
