Notre Dame vs Pitt Week 12 Betting Preview

Notre Dame, ranked ninth, rolls into Pittsburgh riding a seven game surge. Pitt has won five straight and sits inside the top 25. Both teams are 7-2, and both still see a path toward a postseason climb. You can track live movement anytime on our updated NCAA odds page.

Marcus Freeman pushed back on the idea that this is a trap spot. He said his team sees a challenge and prepares accordingly. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi did his part to spark headlines, brushing off the matchup as a non conference game and saying the only thing that matters is winning the next two ACC games. His players insist the message is about confidence, not complacency.

Notre Dame’s offense is balanced and efficient. CJ Carr has thrown for 2,275 yards with 19 touchdowns. Jeremiyah Love is closing in on 1,000 yards on the ground. Pitt leans on quarterback Mason Heintschel and a strong receiver duo in Kenny Johnson and Raphael Williams Jr.

Line Movement and Odds

Notre Dame opened around a 10.5 point favorite, moved to -11.5, and has seen most of the market’s public money. Sharp money has hit Pitt at +11.5 in spots, which has kept the line from pushing higher.

Current numbers:
• Spread: Notre Dame -11.5
• Moneyline: Notre Dame -437, Pitt +336
• Total: 55.5, up from an opener near 54

Totals action has leaned to the over, fueled by Notre Dame’s offensive form and Pitt’s passing volume.

Matchup Breakdown

Notre Dame can control this game if its pass rush shows up. The Fighting Irish rank top 10 in sacks and top 20 in pressure rate. Pitt’s offensive line has allowed steady pressure all season. If Notre Dame wins early downs, Carr and Love can operate with tempo and balance.

Pitt’s path is in the air. The Panthers are top 20 in passing yards and have two receivers who can win outside. If they protect Heintschel and land explosive plays, they can keep this competitive. Turnovers are the danger. Notre Dame is top tier in takeaways, especially at home and in middle field coverage.

Injuries and Conditions

Notre Dame injury notes
• Noah Burnette, out, hip
• Gabriel Rubio, out, elbow
• Billy Schrauth, out, knee
• Ashton Craig, out, knee
• Donovan Hinish, questionable, undisclosed
• Charles Jagusah, out, arm
• Jaden Greathouse, questionable, thigh
• Cooper Flanagan, questionable, Achilles
• Dylan Devezin, out, shoulder
• Micah Gilbert, questionable, hand
• Kedren Young, out, knee
• Peter Jones, out, ankle

Full details anytime at the Notre Dame injury report

Pitt injury notes
• Blaine Spires, questionable
• Jeff Persi, questionable
• Derrick Davis Jr., out, knee
• Keith Gouveia, out, leg
• Nick Lapi, questionable
• Desmond Reid, questionable
• Jayden Bonsu, out
• Rasheem Biles, questionable
• Cruce Brookins, questionable
• Zach Crothers, out
• Jeremiah Marcelin, out
• Nigel Maynard, questionable

See the full Pitt injury report

Best Bets and Prediction

Notre Dame is 15-1 straight up after a win. Pitt has covered in every game this season. Notre Dame’s defensive front is the difference here. Carr keeps the offense on schedule, and Pitt’s offensive line struggles in long yardage.

Projected score: Notre Dame 38, Pitt 21
Best Bet: Notre Dame -11.5
Secondary Lean: Over 55.5

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