Usc Trojans vs Troy Trojans Picks and Predictions November 20th 2025

Game Preview USC Trojans @ Troy Trojans

USC enters Thursday’s non-conference matchup at the Galen Center looking to extend its perfect start before heading to the Maui Invitational. The first team-page hyperlinks go here: the USC Trojans come in at 3-0 after an 87-67 win over Illinois State, while the Troy Trojans arrive at 4-2, fresh off a 108-107 double-overtime upset of San Diego State.

USC’s early-season breakout has centered around Rodney Rice, whose transition to full-time point guard has reshaped the offense. Rice authored just the second triple-double in program history last week—21 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists—in a performance that highlighted his expanded role and playmaking flexibility. Now averaging 18.7 points, 6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game, Rice has become the centerpiece of USC’s three-game surge, during which the Trojans have scored 55+ points in three straight halves.

Troy’s identity is contrasting but equally explosive. The Sun Belt program has already cleared 100 points three times this season, driven by Thomas Dowd’s double-double production (25 points, 19 rebounds vs. SDSU) and Victor Valdes’ perimeter scoring. Troy’s trip through Southern California has included early losses to Loyola Marymount and Cal State Northridge, but the Trojans responded with a championship-level effort, as coach Scott Cross described it, on Tuesday.

With both teams leaning into pace and high-volume scoring, this matchup presents a stylistic collision defined by tempo, shot quality and turnover volatility. Bettors can explore additional situational data through the NCAAB previews, matchup tracking via NCAAB teams, and market movement on the NCAAB odds and scores board.

Odds and Key Information

• Venue: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday
• Spread: USC -18.5
• Total: 157
• Moneyline: USC -3533 | Troy +1400

These lines reflect USC’s elite scoring efficiency and Troy’s volatile—but high-ceiling—offense.

USC Outlook

USC’s 3-0 start has showcased a roster playing with pace, efficiency and improved spacing. Rice’s transformation into a primary creator has expanded the playbook considerably. His ability to blend scoring and distribution has unlocked both transition opportunities and half-court spacing, while wings and roll men operate more freely in secondary actions.

Gabe Dynes’ finishing (85.7% shooting vs Illinois State) provides reliable interior scoring, while the Trojans’ 24.7 made free throws per game—8th nationally—reflect their physicality around the rim. With 98.3 points per game (13th nationally), USC’s offense is among the most efficient high-tempo units in non-conference play.

Defensively, the Trojans continue to win primarily through pace pressure and rebounding (45 per game). But rotations will be tested against a Troy team capable of pushing in transition and firing threes (11 makes per game). USC must tighten perimeter closeouts and maintain discipline through staggered screens and early-clock shot attempts.

USC’s profile situates them as an early riser in both statistical projection systems and futures models available through the College Basketball Championship odds. Rice’s rapid ascent also puts him in early-season watch lists consistent with the trends highlighted in the John Wooden Award odds/predictions.

Troy Outlook

Troy’s offense has shown the ability to break games open when pace accelerates. Tuesday’s 108-107 double-overtime win at San Diego State—traditionally one of the most physical defenses in the country—underscored Troy’s ability to execute late and maintain scoring balance. Dowd’s dominance (25 points, 19 rebounds) continues to define Troy’s interior presence, while Valdes’ perimeter shooting and secondary playmaking enhance spacing.

Troy averages 90.7 points per game and carries a 56.1% effective field goal percentage, demonstrating high shot quality and efficiency. Their ability to hit 11 threes per game gives them the variability to stay competitive even against opponents with superior size and athleticism.

But defensive inconsistency remains a concern. Troy has allowed 107, 108 and 90 points in three of its last four games. Rebounding discipline and foul avoidance have been intermittent, and teams with strong interior finishing—like USC—can exploit lapses when help rotations are slow.

Troy’s road resilience (3-2 in away games) is notable, but they have struggled against opponents with high-end athletic profiles. USC presents a similar matchup challenge to Loyola Marymount and Cal State Northridge, both of which handled Troy earlier on this trip.

For additional data on Troy’s pace-driven profile, bettors can refer to the NCAAB picks hub, where tempo-based models often clarify over-under risks tied to teams with volatile defensive output.

Key Matchup Table

Category	Edge
Transition Offense	USC
Three-Point Output	Troy
Interior Defense	USC
Rebounding	USC
Turnover Creation	USC

Betting Trends

• USC averages 98.3 points per game with all three wins by 20+ points.
• Troy has topped 100 points three times this season.
• USC is 3-0 ATS in its last three games.
• Troy overs have hit in 4 of their last 5 games.
• USC has produced three straight halves of 55+ points.
• Troy allows 93.8 points per game across its four most recent outings.
• USC’s free-throw volume gives them a consistent scoring floor.
• Track line movement at the NCAAB odds and scores page.

The Lean

USC’s offensive versatility, playmaking depth and rim pressure should create sustained scoring advantages. Troy’s pace and shooting keep the ceiling high, but inconsistencies on defense and on the glass present difficulty maintaining margin control over 40 minutes. USC’s transition scoring and Rice’s command at point guard give the Trojans a clear edge in a high-possession environment.

Projected Score: USC 101, Troy 80
Spread Lean: USC -18.5
Total Lean: Over 157

Why You Need Expert Picks

High-tempo matchups involve scoring variance, foul-rate volatility and pace risks that require deeper analytics. ScoresAndStats handicappers lean on tempo modeling, three-point regression analysis and rotation tracking visible on the Handicappers Leaderboard within the NCAAB picks portal. For further wagering support, the expert betting guide and NCAAB previews offer expanded matchup context and trend analysis.