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New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions – January 18, 2026
The Houston Rockets host the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday, January 18, at the Toyota Center with tipoff set for 8:00 PM ET. The Rockets come into this Western Conference clash as massive favorites — and for good reason. They’re surging at home and have dominated similar-tier teams, while New Orleans is barely treading water, struggling with consistency, effort, and health.
Houston opened as a -12.5 favorite with a commanding -718 moneyline price. New Orleans is a +508 underdog in what projects to be a tough road back-to-back in Texas. The total for this game is 229.5, indicating some scoring is expected — but the pace and shooting trends may suggest otherwise.
This game matters less for playoff seeding right now and more as a spot for sharp bettors to evaluate blowout risk, garbage-time implications, and possible team total or first-half angles. Let’s break it all down.
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets Odds
Below are the current lines. Always track the latest NBA odds as betting markets adjust based on injury news and public money.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | +508 | +12.5 (-110) | O 229.5 (-110) |
| Houston Rockets | -718 | -12.5 (-111) | U 229.5 (-110) |
New Orleans Pelicans Betting Form
New Orleans is a team in flux. They’ve dropped 6 of their last 8, and most of those weren’t close. The offense sputters late in games, and their spacing continues to be a problem. They rank in the bottom third of the league in both three-point rate and free-throw rate — not a good combo when trying to stay within two possessions of better teams.
They play at a middling pace but often get pulled into faster games when trailing — which leads to turnovers and poor transition defense. They’re allowing opponents to shoot over 38% from deep across the last 10 games, and they haven’t been able to protect the rim consistently since early December.
On the offensive side, they lean heavily on iso sets and mid-range attempts. That kind of shot profile doesn’t travel well, and it certainly doesn’t keep you close against elite home teams like Houston.
Check the full New Orleans Pelicans stats and results for trends, and be sure to monitor the New Orleans Pelicans injury report for updates on key players.
Houston Rockets Betting Form
Houston is rolling — especially at home. They’ve gone 17-3 at the Toyota Center and rank top-5 in defensive rating over their last 10 games. They’re also one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, which sets up perfectly against a New Orleans squad that struggles on the glass.
Offensively, the Rockets generate high-efficiency looks. They rank near the top of the league in free-throw rate and corner three attempts. Their shot profile is built for volume and rhythm, and they’ve recently been torching teams with quick ball movement and solid spacing.
In games where Houston is a double-digit favorite, they’ve covered in five of their last six. They don’t let up — and that matters here. Expect the Rockets to push the pace, crash the offensive glass, and get to the line consistently against a Pelicans defense that fouls too much and defends without discipline.
Check the Houston Rockets schedule and stats for more metrics. Also, double-check the Houston Rockets injury report as a precaution — late scratches can always shift the line.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets Matchup Breakdown
This is a lopsided matchup on paper and on the floor. Houston controls tempo better, rebounds better, shoots more efficiently, and defends at a higher level. The Pelicans don’t have many reliable counters, especially if they fall behind early.
The key battlegrounds:
- Pace: Houston prefers a controlled but opportunistic pace. They won’t push full throttle, but they excel at creating transition chances off turnovers. New Orleans gives up fast break points at a high clip.
- Rebounding: The Rockets dominate the offensive glass. The Pelicans rank bottom-10 in defensive rebounding rate. That alone could be a +10 attempt edge for Houston.
- Shot Quality: Houston lives on free throws and corner threes. The Pelicans give up both at a high rate. That’s a recipe for trouble.
- Bench Minutes: Rockets’ second unit has been more productive and efficient. Pelicans struggle to maintain offensive flow when starters sit.
Travel isn’t a huge concern here, but fatigue could be. This is the final game of a road stretch for New Orleans, and there’s some 3-in-4 night risk on their legs. That tends to show up in transition D and three-point contests — two key edges for Houston.
If you’re new to evaluating matchups, or want deeper betting context, check the NBA betting guide for help breaking down pace, matchups, and advanced metrics.
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets Predictions and Best Bets
Let’s be clear — Houston should win this game. The question is: can they cover -12.5? Based on recent form, matchup edges, and how New Orleans performs on the road, the answer leans yes. But this number isn’t a gift — it’s sharp.
Still, the Rockets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games and rarely let off the gas when playing from ahead. That’s important against a Pelicans team that has failed to mount second-half comebacks consistently.
The total is trickier. On one hand, Houston’s efficiency and second-chance scoring suggest points. On the other, New Orleans may struggle to score in the halfcourt, and this could slow down late if the margin gets wide. The Over feels slightly inflated. Slight lean Under 229.5.
There’s no standout prop value right now, but monitor team totals and Houston’s first-half spread if you want derivative angles.
Best Bet: Houston Rockets -12.5 (-111)
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