UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Odds and Predictions

It’s a new era for the UFC as the world’s top MMA promotion will begin its run with Paramount+, where every UFC event will stream live. UFC 324 is the first show to fall under the Paramount banner and you can see the entire fight card live via the new home of the UFC.

The first UFC event of 2026, will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and it features an interim-lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje (26-5) and Paddy Pimblett (23-3). This main event matchup promises to be explosive.

Originally, the show had a historic women’s fight lined up between the returning Amanda Nunes and champ Kayla Harrison. Unfortunately, the latter had to pull out due to an injury. So, former bantamweight champ Sean O’Malley will battle Song Yadong in another explosive bout.

In total, UFC 324 has 13 fights as of this writing. And, as you know, the fight card could change throughout the week with late-replacements or cancellations.

With that said, let’s dive into the promotion’s first event of the year and make our UFC Picks for UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett.

Where To Watch UFC 324?

UFC 324 can be seen live on Paramount+ with one of the platform’s two regular monthly subscriptions.

What Time Does UFC 324 start?

 The UFC 324 Preliminary Card will be split up into two sections: Early Prelims and Prelims. The Early Prelims have a 5pm ET start time. The regular Prelims will begin at 7pm ET. The Main Card is set to begin at 6pm ET.

Where Is UFC 324?

UFC 324 will be live from the promotion’s hometown of Las Vegas, Nevada. The event will emanate from the T-Mobile Arena.

UFC 324 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 324 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

The Main Card for UFC 324 features five bouts with all of the scheduled matchups having sizable odds-on favorites. As of this writing, the smallest favorite is O’Malley at -200. Yet, those odds could swing more in his favor as we get closer to fight night.

Is there potential for a big upset on the main card? With Lewis and Namajunas, anything can happen. So, don’t automatically assume that the favorites will sweep the main portion of this event.

Keep reading to see our UFC 324 predictions unfold for the Main Card. And, make sure to compare our picks with the top handicappers in this space.

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UFC 324 Predictions For The Main Card

The UFC 324 Main Card has a 9pm ET start time and will stream live on Paramount+.

Paddy Pimblett (-225) vs. Justin Gaethje (+190)      

• Total: Over (-105)/Under 2.5 (-115) Rounds
• Division: Lightweight

This Top 5 lightweight belt features two men looking to capture the interim title for the division and get a shot at the full champ Ilia Topuria.

Justin Gaethje (26-5) is ranked 4^th in the division and a former lightweight champ along with holding the BMF belt. He’s gone 9-5 un the UFC and is six years older than his foe. Gaethje also gives up three inches in reach, but makes up for it with the advantage in power.

Paddy Pimblett (23-3) is ranked 5^th in the division and has gone a perfect 7-0 in the UFC with five finishes in those seven bouts. His last bout was a domination of Michael Chandler in April 2025. Chandler, a strong striker and grappler like Gaethje, was no match for Pimblett.

As fun as it’s been to watch Gaethje go to war many times inside the octagon. His age and declining speed, are going to work against him this weekend. Plus, Pimblett has showed an improved skillset each time he gets inside the octagon.

Take Pimblett to win this fight. But the best bet is the Over 2.5 rounds (-115). Four of Pimblett’s last five fights have gone over this mark. Gaethje has gone past this mark in three of his last four fights.

Bet: Paddy Pimblett (-225), Over 2.5 rounds (-105)

Sean O’Malley (-200) vs. Song Yadong (+170)

• Total: Over (-280)/Under 2.5 (+230) Rounds
• Division: Bantamweight

The newly crowned co-main event features a Top 5 showdown in the bantamweight division as Sean O’Malley (18-3) aims to get another title shot by defeating the 5^th ranked Yadong Song (22-8-1). 

O’Malley, the no.3 ranked fighter in this weight class, is 10-3 inside the octagon but is coming off two consecutive losses to Merab Dvalishvili. O’Malley will have a three-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Song who is 11-3-1 in the UFC.

Song won in his last fight, which came against Henry Cejudo 11 months ago. He picked up a decision win and has gone 3-1 in his last four trips into the octagon.

Song will come forward and hope to land something big that stops or drops O’Malley. However, he’s a perfect foe for “Suga” who is a fantastic striker and will pick apart Song in this fight. The only question is whether or not O’Malley can get the stoppage.

Take Suga to win this bout and the Over. If you want to get even more aggressive, lay money on O’Malley to get the TKO/KO win.

Bet: Sean O’Malley (-200), Over 2.5 rounds (-280)

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-350) vs. Derrick Lewis (+285)

• Total: Over (-130)/Under 1.5 (+110) Rounds
• Division: Heavyweight

Anytime that Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (29-12) fights, there could be a knockout. In 30 UFC fights, he’s tallied 16 KO wins. Lewis has picked up two victories in a row, both via TKO, and has risen back up to 8^th in the heavyweight division. His last bout came in July 2025, where he beat Tallison Teixeira via 1^st round TKO in 35 seconds.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (16-2) is 9-2 in the UFC and is also on a two-fight winning streak. He last competed in November, and beat Shamil Gaziev via 1^st round KO in 82 seconds. Both of his recent wins have come via first round knockouts.

Seven of Lewis’ losses have come via KO and another two via submission. He’s prone to getting stopped due to his aggressiveness and lack of submission skills.

Cortes-Acosta has the ability to stop this fight or control it on the ground. He has a 50% takedown accuracy compared to 26% for Lewis, so if Cortes-Acosta gets in trouble, then he can go to the mat.

I’m taking the no.5 ranked WCA to pick up the biggest UFC win of his career to date as he stops Lewis. I also like the Over in this matchup as I see both men being tactical in the opening round.

Bet: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-350), Over 1.5 rounds (-130)

Natalia Silva (-410) vs. Rose Namajunas (+310)       

• Total: Over (-450)/Under 2.5 (+350) Rounds
• Division: Women’s Flyweight

If you don’t like Lewis as a flier-worthy underdog, then Rose Namajunas (+310) could definitely be one. The former champ (14-7) has won three of her last four bouts including a solid victory over Miranda Maverick. She remains 6^th in the women’s flyweight division and highly capable of pulling off an upset if her opponent slacks off in any way.

However, that is a big “if” because Natalia Silva (19-5) has won 13 fights in a row and is a perfect 7-0 inside the octagon compared to “Thug” at 12-6. Silva dispatched Alexa Grassa last May via unanimous decision. It was the fourth straight time she won via the scorecards. Yet, those wins still showcased impressive skills.

And, they give us confidence to take two prop bets: the Over 2.5 rounds (-450) and for this fight to go the distance (-400).

12 of Namajunas’ 21 pro fights have gone the distance including seven bouts in a row. For Silva, eight of her pro fights have gone the distance, including the last four. Thug is tough to stop, so I like Silva to win this bout on the scorecards.

Bet: Natalia Silva (-410), Over 2.5 rounds (-450), Fight To Go The Distance (-400)

Jean Silva (-255) vs. Arnold Allen (+215)        

• Total: Over (-125)/Under 2.5 (+105) Rounds
• Division: Featherweight

Arnold “Almighty” Allen (20-3) vs. Jean “Lord” Silva (16-3) is a battle of Top 10 flyweights and should be another entertaining bout for the UFC 324 Main Card.

Silva, ranked no.10, is 5-1 in the UFC but is coming off a 2^nd round TKO loss to Diego Lopes last September. Prior to that bout, Silva had won 13 fights in a row which included his first five trips inside the octagon. All five of his UFC wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO.

Allen, ranked no.6, has twice as many UFC fights with an 11-2 record. He last competed in July 2024, where he beat Giga Chikadze via decision. Prior to that, Allen had lost two in a row to the division’s upper-class fighters in Evloev and Holloway.

Almighty has yet to be stopped in his pro career. Not even Holloway could finish him off. And, while I think Silva’s aggressiveness and versatility will give him the advantage, I do believe that Allen will survive this bout due to his striking prowess.

So, I like the Over 2.5 rounds in addition to Silva picking up the win. The Brazilian is going to “lord” over his opponent in this matchup as he will overpower and tactfully take apart Allen.

Bet: Jean Silva (-255), Over 2.5 rounds (-125)

UFC 324 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 324 odds for the Preliminary Card:

The majority of the UFC 324 Prelims features large betting favorites including a massive disparity in the Nurmagomedov vs. Figueiredo bout, which gets the top billing for the Preliminary Card.

Of the eight-bout Prelims, only two bouts are considered “close” as sportsbooks view this section of the event as lopsided matchups. Yet, we could potentially see an upset or two. Additionally, this is where betting on Totals could provide more bang for your buck and less risk.

UFC 324 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC 324 preliminary card will begin at 5pm ET with the early prelims and roll into a second wave of prelim fights at 7pm ET. The entire preliminary card can be seen on Paramount+.

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1500) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+850)

• Total: Over (-180)/Under 2.5 (+157) Rounds
• Division: Bantamweight

I’m surprised to see this Top 6 bantamweight clash land a Preliminary Card spot instead of on the Main Card. However, it will be the featured fight and it should be a strong showing for the division’s no.2 fighter in Umar Nurmagomedov (19-1).

The 30-year-old is the biggest favorite of the weekend and 7-1 inside the octagon. While Deiveson Figueiredo (25-5-1) is a former world champ and currently ranked no.6 in the division, his best days are behind him. There’s no way that he out-grapples Nurmagomedov and I don’t see a knockout either.

Instead, look for Nurmagomedov to grind down Figueiredo in this bout and pick up the stoppage victory. 11 of his 20 pro wins have come via stoppage including four in a row. Even his loss to Dvalishvili was via decision. Figueiredo has gone the distance in three of his last four bouts. It would’ve been four in a row if he didn’t suffer a knee injury in the Sandhagen fight.

With that said, take the Over as the top wager for this bout since Nurmagomedov’s moneyline offers zero value.  

Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov (-1500), Over 2.5 rounds (-180)

Ateba Gautier (-650) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+475)

• Total: Over (+174)/Under 1.5 (-200) Rounds
• Division: Middleweight

At times, the UFC does a masterful job placing rising prospects with opponents that have really no chance despite what their records say. And, this is one of those times.

This middleweight clash is all about Ateba Gautier (9-1) who has won eight fights in a row including all three of his UFC bouts. In fact, all eight of those wins were via TKO/KO. And, in his three official UFC fights, Gautier has won all of them via first round TKO/KO. His last two bouts ended inside of two minutes.

Andrey Pulyaev (10-3) is 1-1 in the UFC and giving up three inches in reach to his opponent. He also lacks the power and striking prowess to avoid getting into trouble with Gautier.

This bout is going to end inside the first round with Gautier getting the TKO/KO win (-500). Take the Under 1.5 rounds (-200), as well.

Bet: Ateba Gautier (-650), Under 1.5 rounds (-200)

Modestas Bukauskas (-138) vs. Nikita Krylov (+118)

• Total: Over (+105)/Under 1.5 (-125) Rounds
• Division: Light Heavyweight

According the sportsbooks, this bout has the closest odds as Modestas Bukauskas (19-6) takes on Nikita Krylov (30-110 in this light heavyweight fight.

I like Bukauskas in this one. Krylov is 11-9 in the UFC and has lost four of his last seven bouts, which includes two in row. Those two bouts also ended with KO losses for Krylov as took on better strikes. Bukauskas is a better striker than Krylov and has gone 6-1 in his second stint with the UFC.

Bukauskas has won four fights in a row with three of those by stoppage. He took out Paul Craig via 1^st round KO last September and won all three fights he participated in last year. I like for Bukauskas to get the win via stoppage and for this bout to go Under 1.5 rounds.

Five of Krylove’s last six bouts ended in the first, while Bukauskas saw two of his last three end in the opening frame. Favorite bet for this fight is for it to end inside the distance (-600) as these two men have gone the distance in just 10 of their 66 total fights.

Bet: Modestas Bukauskas (-138), Under 1.5 rounds (-125), Fight to end inside the distance (-600)

Charles Johnson (-205) vs. Alex Perez (+175)

• Total: Over (-200)/Under 2.5 (+115) Rounds
• Division: Flyweight

This flyweight fight features two men ranked inside the Top 13, so it’s a bit surprising that Alex Perez (25-10) is this big of an underdog considering he’s ranked 11^th and Charles Johnson (18-7) is ranked 13^th.

Like Namajunas and Lewis, I think Perez has a shot to pull off the upset. He’s a better fighter than his 1-4 stretch over the last few years, and Johnson isn’t exactly lighting up the stat sheets or TV screens when inside the octagon.

My favorite bet for this bout is that it goes the distance (-160). The sportsbooks already favor it to go Over 2.5 rounds and 14 of Johnson’s 25 pro bouts have gone the distance. Additionally, 14 of Perez’s 35 pro bouts have gone to the scorecards.

I’m leaning towards the upset here, but will place more units on the Over and Distance.

Bet: Alex Perez (+175), Over 2.5 rounds (-200), Fight goes the distance (-160)

Alexander Hernandez (-145) vs. Michael Johnson (+125)

• Total: Over (-135)/Under 2.5 (+115) Rounds
• Division: Lightweight

This lightweight bout can go either way, as the oddsmakers have it as the second closest bout on the card. Both men come into this contest on winning streaks.

Alexander Hernandez (18-8) rides a four-fight winning streak with a perfect 3-0 last year. His most recent bout was September, where he beat Diego Ferreira via 2^nd round TKO. Hernandez is 10-7 inside the octagon, with five of those wins coming via TKO/KO.

Michael Johnson (24-19) is a veteran of the UFC with 31 bouts and a 16-15 record. He’s won three straight fights and four of his last five. This comes on the heels of going 3-8 in his previous 11 bouts.

The reality is that neither man is going to rise up in the lightweight division with this bout. It’s more so that a win will keep them in the UFC. 19 of Johnson’s 43 pro bouts have gone the distance, where he’s 12-7. Hernandez is 8-4 in his 12 bouts that have gone the distance.

I like for this clash to go the full three rounds. So, the best bet for this close fight is the Over 2.5 rounds. Since, we have to pick a winner, as well, go with Hernandez. Neither man has large advantages over the other. I just can’t side with a fighter that’s 24-19 overall and 16-15 in the UFC.

Bet: Alexander Hernandez (-145), Over 2.5 rounds (-135)

Josh Hokit (-215) vs. Denzel Freeman (+185)

• Total: Over (-200)/Under 1.5 (+174) Rounds
• Division: Heavyweight

Here, we have a heavyweight showdown between prospect Josh Hokit (7-0) and Denzel Freeman (7-1). Both men have wrestling backgrounds which should make this fight even more interesting. If the grappling gets nullified, then I expect the better striker to win this bout.

For me, I give the slight edge to Hokit. While Freeman could provide some underdog appeal, Hokit should keep his unbeaten streak alive with a late-round stoppage or scorecard win. Take the Over, as well.

Bet: Josh Hokit (-215), Over 1.5 rounds (-200)

Cameron Smotherman (-180) vs. Ricky Turcios (+155)

• Total: Over (-235)/Under 2.5 (+195) Rounds
• Division: Bantamweight

This bout comes down to Cameron Smotherman (12-6) being able to keep the fight upright against Ricky Turcios (12-5). Smotherman should be able to counter Turcios’ striking and pace-pushing style. The latter isn’t the most accurate of strikers and the former has the ability to take advantage of openings.

I’m taking Smotherman to out-point Turcios in this one. So, take this bout to go Over 2.5 rounds (-235) and for Smotherman to win via decision.

Bet: Cameron Smotherman (-180), Over 2.5 rounds (-235)

Ty Miller (-425) vs. Adan Fugitt (+355)

• Total: Over (-166)/Under 1.5 (+146) Rounds
• Division: Welterweight

Ty Miller (6-0) enters this welterweight bout as the undefeated prospect looking to get his first official UFC win. He did pick up a victory on DWCS last August via decision. Prior to that, he put together some decent wins in the LFA and CFFC.

Adan Fugitt (10-5) has gone 2-3 inside the octagon and lost all three of those bouts via stoppage. His last fight came in July 2025, where he lost via 1^st round KO.

Miller is the large favorite because he’s the better overall fighter. So, let’s not get cute here. Take Miller to win this bout via stoppage. Pass on the Total.

Bet: Ty Miller (-425)

The Best UFC 324 Picks

The following is our best UFC picks for this weekend’s event:

• Sean O’Malley (-200)
• Namajunas vs. Silva Over 2.5 rounds (-450)
• Ateba Gautier (-650)
• Bukauskas vs. Krylov ends inside distance (-600)

Based on the matchups, these four UFC picks are our favorites for the upcoming UFC 324 event. Sean O’Malley is perfectly suited to face Song in what should be an explosive showing. O’Malley is the far better striker and a capable grappler. However this bout will stay upright, which favors “Suga”.

Namajunas vs. Silva should be a competitive bout. Both women are ranked in their division and high-capable fighters. With that said, I can’t see Namajunas getting stopped despite being a large underdog. The Over 2.5 rounds is the best bet for that bout as Namajunas has gone the distance in 60% of her pro fights, while Silva has gone to the scorecards in four straight bouts.

Ateba Gautier is a rising middleweight prospect. At just 23-years-old, the UFC is hoping that he matures into the division’s next star. With that said, Pulyaev is the perfect matchup to produce a knockout victory for Gautier.

Lastly, Bukauskas vs. Krylov have seen 56 of their combined 66 total professional fights end inside the distance. There’s no reason to think that these two finishers won’t produce a stoppage this weekend.

If you place all four of these best UFC 324 picks into a parlay, then you will earn $146 for every $100 wagered. Not bad for taking sizable favorites and stacking them into a four-leg parlay. Check out our best NFL parlays of the week for more multi-leg wagers.

UFC 324 Card

Check out the updated UFC 324 fight card: