NFL Previews 
MLB Previews 
NBA Previews 
NHL Previews 
Soccer Previews 
Table of Contents
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Picks, Predictions and Odds: How much should one questionable center move the handicap?
The Phoenix Mercury visit the Connecticut Sun on Friday, August 7, 2026, at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. Tipoff is 7:30 p.m. ET on ION. Phoenix is 12-20 after Wednesday’s 96-82 loss at Atlanta, while Connecticut is 7-23 and has dropped five straight. This is one of the more availability-sensitive games on the WNBA picks and previews slate because Connecticut center Brittney Griner is questionable and rookie big Raegan Beers is out.
Phoenix has the cleaner perimeter creation after adding Kelsey Plum to a core with Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas. Connecticut’s best route is to keep the game physical, rebound and force Phoenix into long half-court possessions. The market has already moved toward the Mercury, so the question is not simply whether Phoenix should win; it is whether the current spread and moneyline still offer enough value before Griner’s status is resolved.
Game Info: Can Connecticut’s home floor slow a Phoenix offense with three primary creators?
- Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun
- League/Competition: WNBA regular season
- Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Arena: Mohegan Sun Arena
- Location: Uncasville, Connecticut
- Broadcast: ION
- Records: Phoenix 12-20; Connecticut 7-23
- Schedule Spot: Phoenix played Wednesday in Atlanta; Connecticut has been off since Sunday
Connecticut owns the rest advantage, four full days between games compared with one for Phoenix, and that matters for a team that may need to lean on a compact frontcourt. Phoenix’s travel from Atlanta is manageable, but the Mercury are asking several high-usage veterans to carry important minutes. Connecticut needs the slower, more physical version of the game; Phoenix benefits if Plum and Copper can push before the Sun set their half-court size.
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Odds: Has the favorite already absorbed too much of the injury risk?
Action Network prices captured Friday morning at approximately 7:20 a.m. ET listed Phoenix -6.5 at -110, Connecticut +6.5 at -110, Phoenix -250 on the moneyline and Connecticut +198. The total was 174.5, with over -108 and under -112. The spread opened Phoenix -5.5 and the total opened 172.5, so the market has moved one point toward the Mercury and two points toward a higher-scoring game. That movement makes price discipline more important than the basic winner projection. For reference, the betting odds guide explains why -250 requires a 71.4% win rate just to break even.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | -250 | -6.5 (-110) | Over 174.5 (-108) |
| Connecticut Sun | +198 | +6.5 (-110) | Under 174.5 (-112) |
The spread is now less forgiving for Phoenix than the opener, while the total asks Connecticut to contribute meaningfully despite a thin frontcourt. If Griner is ruled in, Connecticut gains a post target and defensive anchor; if she is ruled out, the Sun lose one of the clearest ways to punish Phoenix inside. That unresolved fork is large enough to matter at both 6.5 and 174.5.
Head-to-Head and Recent Meetings: What did the July split actually tell us?
These teams played twice in Phoenix in July and split the set. Connecticut won 96-83 on July 17, then Phoenix answered 72-63 two days later. The rematch showed how quickly the scoring environment can change when Phoenix protects the ball and forces Connecticut into a crowded half court. It also highlighted Griner’s value to the Sun: she scored 19 in the second game and gave Connecticut a reliable interior target even in a low-scoring loss.
| Date | Venue | Result | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 17, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Connecticut 96, Phoenix 83 | Sun produced the higher-scoring game |
| July 19, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Phoenix 72, Connecticut 63 | Phoenix scored 22 points off 21 Sun turnovers |
The split argues against overreacting to one style. Phoenix can win fast or slow, while Connecticut’s offense becomes much more fragile when turnovers remove opportunities to play through the frontcourt.
Phoenix Mercury Recent Form: Is the new backcourt improving the offense faster than the defense?
Phoenix is 3-2 over its last five, averaging 91.4 points while allowing 92.4. The Mercury beat Los Angeles 86-82, Golden State 91-89 and Chicago 106-101, then lost 94-92 to New York and 96-82 at Atlanta. The offensive ceiling has clearly improved with Kelsey Plum back in a major creation role. Her shooting and pick-and-roll pressure reduce the burden on Copper to manufacture every perimeter advantage, while Alyssa Thomas can operate as a connector and attack mismatches from the middle of the floor.
The problem is that the defense still gives opponents too many efficient stretches. Phoenix’s season defensive efficiency sits on the wrong side of league average, and the last five have not erased that. A favorite laying more than two possessions needs stops as well as points. Against Connecticut, the preferred script is to pressure the Sun’s ball handlers, get into transition and make the home team chase multiple creators. If Phoenix allows the game to become a steady post-and-rebound contest, the spread becomes harder to justify.
Connecticut Sun Recent Form: Can extra rest repair a five-game slide?
Connecticut is 0-5 over its last five, scoring 77.2 points per game and allowing 92.8. The Sun lost 72-63 at Phoenix, 123-88 at Indiana, 92-84 at Washington, 94-88 at Chicago and 83-63 at Dallas. The opponent quality has been respectable, but the margins reveal a recurring problem: once the half-court offense stalls, Connecticut does not have enough perimeter shot creation to trade scores for long stretches.
The Sun still have defensive playmakers and enough size to compete on the glass. Their season averages include more than eight steals and four blocks per game, which can create easier offense. The issue is converting those defensive events into efficient scoring before the opponent resets. With Beers out and Griner questionable, frontcourt continuity is weaker than usual. The extra rest is valuable, but it cannot fully replace the rim finishing, screening and defensive rebounding those minutes provide.
Starting Lineups and Rotation Matchup: Does Connecticut have enough size if Griner cannot go?
These are projected opening groups, not confirmed starters. Phoenix’s group reflects its current high-usage perimeter core. Connecticut’s lineup is more conditional because Griner’s knee status can change both the starting five and the bench rotation.
Phoenix Mercury Projected Starting Lineup
- Kelsey Plum — guard
- Kahleah Copper — guard/wing
- Noémie Brochant — forward
- DeWanna Bonner — forward
- Alyssa Thomas — forward/center
Connecticut Sun Projected Starting Lineup
- Leila Lacan — guard
- Charlisse Leger-Walker — guard
- Diamond Miller — wing
- Kennedy Burke — forward
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa — center
Phoenix can create through Plum-Copper actions and then use Thomas as the second-side decision-maker, giving the Mercury more ways to attack a switching or conservative coverage. Connecticut needs Lacan and Leger-Walker to enter offense cleanly and keep Miller from receiving the ball too late in the clock. Nelson-Ododa’s rebounding workload grows if Griner sits. If Griner is active, the Sun can play bigger and force Phoenix to defend the paint; if not, Phoenix can use smaller, faster groups without paying the same rebounding price.
Injuries and Player Availability: Why does Brittney Griner’s status matter to every major market?
The Phoenix Mercury injury report and Connecticut Sun injury report are the two approved availability links for this section. The WNBA’s official report issued Thursday at 7:45 p.m. ET listed Connecticut rookie Raegan Beers out in concussion protocol and Brittney Griner questionable with a left-knee issue. Phoenix had no player listed for Friday’s game on that report.
Griner is the high-impact variable. If active without a meaningful restriction, she gives Connecticut a post scorer, screener and defensive presence that can lower Phoenix’s rim efficiency and stabilize the Sun offense. If she sits, Nelson-Ododa and the remaining forwards must absorb more center minutes, which can weaken both offensive spacing and defensive rebounding. Beers being out removes another frontcourt option. The uncertainty is large enough that it directly limits confidence in the current spread and total.
Key Matchup Factors: Can Phoenix turn Connecticut’s half-court limitations into transition offense?
Turnovers are the cleanest Phoenix advantage. In the July 19 win, the Mercury scored 22 points off 21 Connecticut turnovers. With Plum now adding another ball-pressure and transition threat on the other end, live-ball mistakes can become quick points before Connecticut’s size is organized. The Sun therefore need clean entries, stronger spacing and fewer ambitious passes across the top of the floor.
The second hinge is rebounding. Connecticut must make Phoenix defend multiple efforts, especially if the Sun are short on shot creation. The third is pace. Phoenix can survive a half-court game because Thomas is an elite facilitator, but the Mercury are more dangerous when Copper and Plum attack early. Connecticut wants to keep the possession count controlled, use the glass and turn this into a game where a six-point spread feels large late.
Start with the picks worth reviewing.
See today’s betting picks before you make your next move.
Final Prediction: Is Phoenix the likely winner without offering enough current value?
Phoenix has the better collection of creators and should win more possessions at the point of attack, so the projected outcome favors the Mercury. Connecticut’s five-game offensive slump and depleted frontcourt make it difficult to build a strong upset case. Projected score: Phoenix 87, Connecticut 80, with a slightly lower-scoring environment than the market total if Griner is limited or out. The strongest researched angle is Phoenix to win, but -250 requires a 71.4% break-even rate and the spread has already moved from -5.5 to -6.5. With Griner still questionable, neither the moneyline nor the current spread offers enough verified value to qualify as a Best Bet.
