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The Rangers won 20 of 41 on the road last season. Take them at +120, and no shorter.
The Detroit Red Wings are -142 against the New York Rangers at +120 at DraftKings. With the margin taken out, that prices the Rangers to win 43.7% of the time. Our number is 48.8%. The gap is 5.1 points, and the threshold for a bet is 5.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.
The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at home, which is 21 wins, 16 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Rangers went 20-19-2 on the road and lost 21 of 41, also 51.2%. The average of the two is 51.2% for the Red Wings, which leaves 48.8% for the Rangers.
The margin is the few points a book adds to both prices, so that the two sides add up to more than 100%. Removed from -142 and +120, it leaves the Red Wings at 56.3% and the Rangers at 43.7%.
A new season starts here. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed in either one. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Red Wings and 41 road games for the Rangers.
The Red Wings at home, the Rangers on the road
The Rangers on the road scored 3.22 goals a game and allowed 3.07. The Red Wings at home scored 3.10 and allowed 3.34. On goals, the visitor was ahead.
The Rangers won more on the road than at home last season. They went 20-19-2 away and 14-20-7 at home. The method uses the road half here, the better of the two.
Over the full season the Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points and were outscored by 0.21 goals a game. The Rangers finished 34-39-9 with 77 points, outscored by 0.15 a game. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Rangers won two: 4-1 at Detroit on 8 November and 4-1 at home on 4 April. The Red Wings won 2-1 at New York on 17 November. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.
The Rangers also play the night before, at home to the Tampa Bay Lightning on 1 October, after playing at Boston on 29 September. The method does not account for back-to-back games, and neither of those games is in these figures.
The price
The Red Wings opened at -142 and the Rangers at +120, and neither had moved when read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
Both halves of our number sit 5.1 points above the market’s 43.7%: the Rangers’ 48.8% road win rate, and the 48.8% of home games the Red Wings lost.
Pick: Rangers moneyline
New York Rangers +120. Our number gives the Rangers 48.8%, the market 43.7%, a gap of 5.1 points against a 5-point threshold.
The sample is 82 games, 41 for each team, all from last season.
What changes it
Any move toward the Rangers. With the book’s margin held at today’s size, +120 leaves a gap of 5.1 points. At +119 the gap is 4.9, and it is a pass. There is no room in this price.
The other unknown is who plays. This page states nothing about either lineup on 2 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +124 and under -148. The Red Wings’ games went over 6.5 in 37 of 82 and the Rangers’ in 32 of 82. The Red Wings’ home games averaged 6.44 goals, and the Rangers’ road games 6.29.
Together that is 69 overs in 164 games, 42.1%. The over at +124 is priced at 42.8% with the margin removed. That is 0.7 points toward the under. Pass on the total.
The Red Wings are -1.5 at +180 on the puck line and the Rangers +1.5 at -218. The Red Wings won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games. The Rangers lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Red Wings -1.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 34.3% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Rangers at Red Wings, Friday 2 October, 6:30 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
