Red Sox at Yankees Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number and the market are 1.5 points apart on the Yankees. Pass at -137 and +114.

The Boston Red Sox are +114 and the New York Yankees -137 at DraftKings for Game 2. With the margin removed, that is 55.3% for the Yankees. Our number for the Yankees is 56.8%. The gap is 1.5 points, and the threshold for a bet is 5.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: each team’s run-based win rate for the 2026 regular season, set against each other, then moved by how often home teams won this season.

The run-based win rate comes from runs scored and allowed alone, runs scored to the power 1.83, divided by that same figure plus runs allowed to the power 1.83. The Yankees scored 739 and allowed 601 in 161 games, which gives 59.3%. Their actual record was 93-68, a 57.8% rate. The Red Sox scored 689 and allowed 611 in 162 games, for 55.5% against an actual 87-75.

Set against each other on a neutral field, those two rates give the Yankees 54.0%. Home teams won 1,284 of 2,429 regular-season games in 2026, 52.9%. Adding that edge takes the Yankees to 56.8%, and the Red Sox to 43.2%.

The market’s figure is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so they add up to more than 100%; here it is 4.5 points. Out of +114 and -137, it leaves the Red Sox at 44.7% and the Yankees at 55.3%.

The Yankees at home, the Red Sox on the road

The Yankees went 46-34 at home, scoring 4.76 runs a game and allowing 4.04. The Red Sox went 46-35 on the road, scoring 4.21 and allowing 3.62. Away from home the Yankees were 47-34, and at home the Red Sox were 41-40.

The method uses the full season for both teams, 161 and 162 games, because a home or road split halves the sample. The splits are here so you can see what that choice leaves out.

The teams met 13 times in the regular season, and the Yankees won 7 of them. The Red Sox won the other 6. That is 13 games, and they prove nothing about one more.

The series so far

This is a best-of-three Wild Card Series, every game at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won Game 1, 9-0, on 29 September, so the Red Sox need to win Game 2 to force a third game on 1 October.

Nothing in our number reads Game 1. One game is one game, and the method is built on 323 of them.

The starters

Sonny Gray, a right-hander, starts for the Red Sox: 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 169 innings in 29 starts this season. Max Fried, a left-hander, starts for the Yankees: 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 112 2/3 innings in 20 starts this season.

ERA is earned runs allowed per nine innings. WHIP is walks plus hits allowed per inning. Both are ESPN’s 2026 regular-season figures.

Our number does not use the starters. It is built from what each team did across the season, with every pitcher it used. The market’s price does account for who starts, so part of any gap on this page is the starters, and our method cannot say how much.

The price

The Red Sox opened at +107 and the Yankees at -129. Read at 07:48 UTC on 30 September 2026, DraftKings via ESPN, they were +114 and -137.

At the opening prices, with the margin removed, the Yankees were at 53.8% and the gap was 3.0 points. Today it is 1.5.

Pick: pass on the moneyline

No bet at -137 and +114. Our number for the Yankees is 56.8%, the market’s is 55.3%, and the 1.5-point gap is short of the 5-point threshold.

It rests on 323 regular-season games, 161 for the Yankees and 162 for the Red Sox.

What changes it

The price. At today’s margin the Yankees become a bet at -118 or any price that pays more, and the Red Sox at +151 or more. Between those, it is a pass.

Then the lineups. A season of runs says how these two teams played from March to September, and nothing on this page says who is in either lineup. Check them, and the starters, before you bet.

The total

The total is 6.5, with the over at -120 and the under at +100. Pass on the total.

We pass on every postseason total: the season’s run rates come from games started by every pitcher in both rotations, and a postseason total is set for the two starters named. Across the season the Yankees games averaged 8.32 runs, the Red Sox games 8.02.

Red Sox at Yankees, Game 2, Wednesday 30 September, 8:00 PM ET, Yankee Stadium. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 September 2026, 07:48 UTC. Results and starters: ESPN, read 30 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.