UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League · Sunday 4 October
Norway vs Portugal Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Norway at Portugal. No prices were posted when this was read, and the results these two teams hold could not set a fair one.
ESPN carried no DraftKings line for the game on 30 September 2026, 07:54 UTC. That leaves no market figure to test, and there is no figure of ours to set against one either, for the reason below.
Why there is no bet
For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.
That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Portugal and Norway since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.
This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 30 September, Portugal had played two games in it and Norway two, fewer than the four we need before any bet.
Portugal at home, Norway away
Since September 2024, Portugal have played 9 competitive games at home. They won 7, drew 2 and lost 0, scoring 29 and conceding 10: 3.22 and 1.11 a game.
Norway played 7 away in the same span. The record is 5-1-1, with 19 scored and 9 conceded, or 2.71 and 1.29 a game.
Across every competitive game in that window, Portugal are 12-4-2 in 18 and Norway are 13-1-2 in 16. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.
In Group A4 of this Nations League, on 30 September, Norway are second with 3 points from 2 games, 4 scored and 4 conceded. Portugal are first with 6 points from 2, 3 scored and 1 conceded.
Head to head
ESPN lists four earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 27 September 2026, ended Norway 1, Portugal 2.
- 27 September 2026: Norway 1, Portugal 2
- 29 May 2016: Portugal 3, Norway 0
- 4 June 2011: Portugal 1, Norway 0
- 7 September 2010: Norway 1, Portugal 0
The first of them was in 2010. Four games prove nothing about Sunday.
The total
Of Portugal’s 18 competitive games since September 2024, 12 finished with three goals or more. Norway’s went that way in 14 of 16.
No total was posted when this was read. Those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates would not price one anyway.
Pick: no bet
No bet on Norway at Portugal, at any price posted before kickoff.
What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 30 September, Portugal had played two group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Sunday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.
Norway at Portugal, Sunday 4 October, 2:45 PM ET, Estádio do Dragão. No prices posted when read, 30 September 2026, 07:54 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.